Yards Per Gretch: Week 15

by Ben Gretch (gretch) Last Updated 2018-12-15 03:26:53 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

Ben Gretch, Editor in Chief of Fantasy Insiders, takes an ultra-high resolution look at the upcoming NFL week. If you haven’t yet been introduced to Ben’s level of thinking, get ready for great takes loaded with analytical insight.

Week 15

“Process over results” is one of the more popular phrases in fantasy football and fantasy sports generally. And yet, we all know it’s often used as a scapegoat, a way to defer accountability of bad outcomes in favor of unforeseeable circumstances, tough luck.

So what is good process? It’s often bandied about in hindsight as if it were obvious, but the reality is more complex. Football analysis is multidimensional, and while there are pillars to fall back on, the proper weight to give those dimensions varies situation by situation. We’re balancing risk with upside, but risk factors come in a variety of shapes and sizes, from the player himself to his teammates to the coaching or offensive scheme to the game atmosphere that week. Even the ever-changing sport itself opens new opportunities for different types of players, and closes the door on others.

The frequent debates about what matters and what doesn’t can be chalked up to that multidimensionality. One of the great joys of fantasy football for many seems to be how one can find evidence of any theory, argue any point, and you might just be proven right. That’s the nature of the sport, one with peaks and valleys and samples small enough that a QB with a 52% completion percentage who hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game and sports a 5:9 TD:INT ratio can actually feel safe because he posted ridiculous rushing efficiency in three consecutive games, as we ignore the increase of 86 rushing yards per game it represents over his prior six games. (Please don’t play Josh Allen.)