How Are We Drafting the Colts After Andrew Luck's Retirement?
Andrew Luck shocked the NFL world on Saturday, announcing his retirement after years of dealing with numerous injuries. Obviously he’s no longer fantasy relevant, but how does his departure affect the Colts’ remaining offensive pieces? Our experts debate T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, and Luck’s replacement, with some differing opinions about the state of this offense.
How are we drafting the Colts post-Andrew Luck?
JoshADHD: I will swoop in for the discount immediately. While Luck’s talent and ability are unquestioned, I believe the ecosystem around Jacoby Brissett will help Mack, Hilton, etc. produce at very similar levels to what we were already expecting.
Beermakersfan: I am pretty much hands off with all the Colts until I see a significant enough discount to jump in. Marlon Mack is the most likely one for me to draft, as he now likely becomes the centerpiece of that offense. But, he will also see more seven- and eight-man boxes, so I’m not going crazy to grab him unless he falls into the late fourth/fifth round.
Nathan Coleman: Every skill player should drop at least a tier if not more. Some have argued that Mack should see a boost but in reality less scoring opportunities will diminish any added volume. Expect Brissett to leapfrog guys like Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, and Andy Dalton as a middling QB2 with a decent rushing floor.
Chris Gimino: I was really only drafting Mack anyway, with too many mouths to feed in the passing game and Hilton not fitting my draft strategy. I have downgraded Mack and my approach is to try to win without him. Nobody gets better with this news, and the expectation for the whole team is lower without the premier intellect and execution of Luck. Avoid. Let others make this bet while we make bets with equal upside and less downside.
STLCards: I am not taking a definitive stand here other than firmly waffling in the middle. If Hilton is going to go in the late fourth or early fifth round of 12-team drafts, I think the appropriate discount is being applied. Mack will still get similar (or more) volume, though he will be the focus of opposing defenses. Guys like Brissett, Parris Campbell, and the tight ends can be used as late round cheap stacks in best ball formats. While the expectation isn’t nearly as high here now, you can take advantage of some recency bias and pounce on some discounts.
JSURab: For the most part, the only guy I have been drafting on the Colts is Mack. If Indianapolis is trailing more in games this will hurt Mack and could lead to less opportunity, because they haven’t seemed to use him in the passing game. You will see most of these Colts just fall down the draft boards. I am probably just going to look at a late round flyer like Jack Doyle who had 80 receptions in 2017 with Brissett as the starting quarterback.