In What Round Does A.J. Green Become a Value?

A.J. Green went down with a serious ankle injury over the weekend and is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks, meaning he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the regular season. The Bengals’ top wideout remains a premier talent, but this injury and the subsequent missed time will surely depress his draft cost. Our experts examine how far Green will need to slide to become a draft value.

In what round does A.J. Green become a value?

Chris Gimino: I think you can select Green in best ball in the round 5-8 range depending on how many games you believe he will miss and your expectation on his effectiveness when he returns. I believe two games is fair, which in standard 12-team full season best balls would make him a target in round 6 or 7. That’s in the same area I have been targeting Christian Kirk, who I have at WR24 at the moment.

JSURab: We still don’t know the exact amount of time Green will miss, but I think two regular season games seems likely. I will now be moving him down to a sixth-round pick at WR29. I think in that range even if he misses two games he could still give you the production to provide value in that round.

JoshADHD: He becomes a value again in the sixth round, right around WR30. If his worst-case scenario is missing the first four games of 2019, I think you can liken him to 2018 Julian Edelman in terms of projection. Fewer than four games, and you’ve out-punched his draft slot by 2+ rounds.

Erik Beimfohr: I’d say about round 7, but I’m going to be pretty careful with Green moving forward. He’s still a great football player, of course, and I don’t think we should expect him to miss too many games from this particular injury. However, he’s about to turn 31 years old, has had some injury issues the last couple years, and we don’t truly know much about this injury yet. I’ll still be interested somewhere near the seventh round because he’s too good of a player to ignore, but I’m going to be cautious, especially because there are a lot of upside WRs I also like in that range.

Beermakersfan: I was very high on him as a value in the late third to early fourth round before the injury and now I have him ranked in the seventh round range. That’s where I start to feel comfortable with the reward meaning more to my team than the potential risk. He’s risky for sure, but also still possesses the upside to be a league winner in the middle-rounds if he’s back around Weeks 4-6.

STLCards: It seems like Green will miss one-to-three weeks of the regular season, so that would downgrade him around two rounds for me. That puts the late fifth or early sixth round as the “sweet spot” to draft Green. If you are thin at WR, the sixth round area seems like a value. If you are already heavy at WR, it would be a bit later.

To find more Best Ball advice and analysis from our experts, check out the Expert Survey: Picks Edition and the Expert Survey: Strategy Edition.

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