The Rainbow Flick: THE FINAL (SHOWDOWN)
Thanks for a fun season y’all, this UCL campaign had everything and everything we could’ve asked for with insane comebacks, questionable VAR calls, goalazo’s, and much more. Two English sides meet in the Final for the first time in a long time and it’ll be nothing but interesting to see how it plays out.
With a bigger field than usual, and no CPT available, dupelicates will be all over the place with people trying to use all 50K, so don’t be afraid to leave some cap on the table. It’s not like there’s an ‘optimal’ build.. while the winner may have used all 50k, I feel it’s better to take your shot elsewhere and try to be different.
Liverpool (-110) vs Tottenham (+340) (neutral location) / OU 2.5
All four matches in the Salah era against Spurs have gone over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring. While tracking trends can be helpful, it’s important to realize that this is the Champions League Final, so literally anything can happen with both sides putting everything they have on the line. Liverpool also had the far better season, yet are just slight favorites. Spurs ended the league in shocking form with 3 wins, 2 drawsm, and 7 losses. The fact that all of these trends contradict the odds tells me that the betting market is leaning towards both Spurs and the under, which is odd, but like I said, anything can happen in the Final. Five of the past six Finals have seen to 4 or more goals, but this match has a measly OU of 2.5 with sharp bettors hitting the under. An early goal could flip the match on its head, but I’m building with the assumption that we see a pretty tight match.
Both teams scoring is fairly likely – about a 60% chance. I don’t think we want to jam in as many high priced attackers as we can. We want to pick and choose 1 or 2 and look to gather the floor players elsewhere to get as balanced as possible (although it’s difficult with the tight pricing). Another angle to consider is the importance of 90 minutes (with upside for more if they head into extra time after 90 minutes). While some of the subs will be predicated on game script (offensive or defensive subs given the score mid-match), the players who I feel have the best bet for 90+ minutes are as follows (not including CB’s who are very likely to go the full 90):
Alexander-Arnold (unless having a big lead)
Expected Lineup Breakdown:
Liverpool: The front 3 of Salah, Firmino, and Mane are expected. Firmino, with almost no floor, is hard to trust for over 10K with both sub risk and not a whole lot of pure upside. He’s +200 to score anytime which is decent, but he needs a special moment of brilliance to become a difference maker. He’s a fade candidate but I think if multi-entering all the attackers are worth grabbing some exposure to. Salah is sure to be chalk only 400 more than Mane but honestly I love Mane here. He’s a sub risk late in the match, or in extra time, but he gets the best ‘matchup’ on the pitch in going against Trippier.
The midfield is slightly defensive minded with Henderson, Wijnaldum, and Fabinho. The funny thing is that the field may gravitate to Wijnaldum given his most recent match, but in reality he’s my least favorite of the 3. He’s got both sub risk and a low floor. The price is nice on him but hopefully that just bumps his ownership a bit more. The goal/assist upside for Fabinho is limited but he collects peripherals better than the other two in the MF. He also has the best chance at going 90, so he’s decently appealing here. Hendo has seen a bump in attacking prowess in the latter parts of this season which is weird but kind of nice. Per dollar Wijnaldum is the better option but in reality none of this grouping stand out too much. None collect many peripherals and none have much attacking upside.
The backline will consist of fullbacks Robertson and Alexander-Arnold, arguably the best fullback tandem in the World. I’d expect them to be massively chalky at 8.1 and 6.9, for good reason. They have a good blend of attacking quality as well as other peripherals, and they’re more underpriced than anyone else. VVD and Matip may also carry ownership but I’ll pass on these CB’s for the most part at almost 6K apiece.
Tottenham: Harry Kane is expected back after what looked like a bad ankle injury. He’s said he’s good to go but that it comes down to Pochettino whether or not he plays. I think he starts but may not go 90 if ineffective. Who knows. Alongside him will be Son, Dele, and Eriksen. Eriksen is the most important player in this team; will absolutely be necessary if Spurs want to win this title. Even without a full allotment of set pieces, he’s one of the only ‘studs’ with a floor. Son is a true boss but I can’t figure out what to do with him. Kane coming back may hurt his shot floor as well as his overall value as play won’t flow through him as much when Spurs have the ball. I’ll try to be a tad overweight than the field but I don’t want to go crazy. Dele is the wildcard. He’s overpriced, but can show up in a big way sometimes. I may say F it and have more than I should, but he’s the cheapest attacker on the board.
The midfield of Sissoko and Winks is gross. They’re the classic defensive midfielders who simply don’t do a whole lot. They don’t provide many peripherals or attacking goodness. They’re nothing but dart throw lineup fillers. Trippier and Rose are actually pretty appealing too. DK has made it tempting to jam in these fullbacks. They all have a decent floor with a decent price, and on a slate where floor plays likely triumph coupled with finding the 1-3 goals in your other slots, the fullbacks stand to be pretty appealing in my eyes. I’d be more willing to play Alderweireld and Vertenhogen since they’re much cheaper than the LIV CB pairing, but I can’t get excited about centerbacks. I’ll have sprinkling of all for but hopefully none over 15-20%.
Both goalkeepers are in play, but I’d be surprised if there’s a CS in this match. I won’t have much of either, but may take a small stab at both.
Most Exposed – Alexander-Arnold (8.1)
Cash Core – Eriksen (10.6)
Salary Saver – Robertson (6.9)