2017 Pass/Run Mix by Coach

by Derek Carty (DerekCarty) Part of the product NFL Pre-Season Package by Derek Carty

In the pre-season, predicting usage is the most important thing. Defensive quality dramatically shifts when backups come in, we often don’t have a lot to go on in determining which offensive backups are more talented than others, and so simply knowing who is going to touch the ball is a big deal.

While knowing that Running Back A stands to get a higher percentage of his team’s carries than Running Back B will get is great, it’s also important to know how many total carries there are to go around. 50% of 50 carries winds up being more than 75% of 30 carries.

This is a list of how every team split up their pass and run play calls last year, adjusted for down, distance, field position, defense, and weather. The Miami Dolphins, for example, had the highest pass rate last year, but they played from behind so often that it’s not the most accurate indicator of their play-calling. By making these adjustments, we can identify a team’s true tendencies, which may win out more in the pre-season when, say, bad teams aren’t necessarily always playing from behind.

Coaches generally tend to stick to a similar game-plan from year-to-year, so this should be very useful for stable situations and can also potentially add insight for coaches changes teams and bringing their tendencies with them.