Each player has a most likely outcome for the scenario projected each week, but they also have a varying degree of performance that will eclipse a much better than average fantasy performance.
We set two bars and made best efforts to determine the probability of clear each:
Spike Weeks: The probability of exceeding an 80th percentile performance at the position. Players who reach this bar often can be real difference makers relative to their positional peers.
Strike Weeks: The probability of exceeding a 66th percentile performance at the position. The player who reach this bar often are likely to at least enter your best ball lineup with an above average performance.
Layering in Spike Weeks and Strike weeks can help you make informed decisions for your own personal best ball rankings.
RotoGrinders Fantasy Football Projections are designed to help you build better rosters on fantasy sites like Underdog Fantasy, DraftKings, FanDuel, and any traditional scoring format season-long site.
We use data from our providers (such as Sports Info Solutions Inc. and SportRadar) to generate baseline expectations for each week of the NFL season. We project the weeks individually to capture the specific scenario as closely as possible. We also leverage the time test betting market expectations to set the parameters of the game environment. The foundation set with this data helps us deliver an accurate forecast at the team level.
Once the expectations are set for the team, the process pivots to the player level where we assign the projected usage rates of rushing, receiving, and scoring across all the fantasy positions. This is where we introduce information outside the world of data to help inform our projections, without being dismissive of relevant past season usage stats that may be applicable to the upcoming season. Snap counts, air yards, deep passing, pressure rates, target share, red zone usage, and situational workload splits are just some of the data points used to inform our decisions on player usage.
The resulting outputs are displayed above, with rankings based solely on the fantasy stats that come from the projections model. We rank for points per reception (PPR), half-point per receptions (.5PPR), and the DraftKings best ball format featuring player bonuses. We also rank for the full 18 week season, the Week 1 through 17 season used by many leagues, the week 1 through 14 regular season used commonly in best ball, and the week 15 through 17 playoff weeks also used commonly across many leagues.
These projections will be available to all through August 12th, 2021. RotoGrinders premium members will be able to access fantasy projections throughout the entire NFL preseason. They will also have access to the preseason DFS projections and the LineupHQ optimizer for all preseason games.
You may have come for season-long fantasy information but you should absolutely stay for our non-stop coverage of each week of the NFL season with premium DFS projections, rankings, and tools. You can sign up for access to these great tools here.