A Tangled Web: The Weather, Vegas, and Park Factors
This has been fun, hasn’t it? Just talking about the weather, doing a little research, and prepping for daily fantasy baseball.
But this isn’t all fun and games. Using the weather in daily fantasy baseball is serious business. As is the case with every factor you consider when projecting players, you need to make sure you aren’t “doubling up” on weather, so to speak; that is, you can’t indirectly account for weather through two inputs.
One way that you can “double up” is by heavily weighing both the weather and the Vegas lines. Even Vegas’s opening lines account for weather to a strong degree—air density, expected temperature, and so on—and then they get adjusted more for things like wind speed and precipitation. If you’re using the Rockies’ projected Vegas run total as a proxy for their fantasy production, for example, you’re already indirectly accounting for the favorable atmospheric conditions in Colorado.
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