Accurately Predicting Minutes in NBA DFS
Minutes are as important to a basketball player in the NBA as touches are to a running back in the NFL. Or, if you are a fan of daily fantasy baseball, they are equivalent to quality at-bats for a baseball player. In daily fantasy basketball, everything is about opportunity and minutes directly provide that for a player. This should be obvious, but there is a strong linear relationship between minutes and fantasy production.
Logically, this makes sense, as the longer a player is on the floor, the more opportunities they are going to have to score points, grab rebounds, dish out assists, and rack up blocks and steals on the defensive end of the floor. Minutes aren’t the only statistic that we should use in our daily research routine, but they are certainly one of the most important. If you can accurately predict minutes, you will be able to accurately predict fantasy production over the course of the season. The key to that sentence is the word accurately. This course is designed to help you get better at predicting minutes.
To be able to predict minutes, we have to understand that there are 48 available minutes for each position, so 240 total minutes for a team. There are basically three main factors that change a team’s rotation throughout the course of the season: injuries, role changes, and blowouts. If we know how to factor each of these into our minutes’ equation, we will have a more accurate prediction of playing time for each player. Predicting minutes may sound difficult, but once you get the hang of it and know what to look for with rotations, it becomes a fairly easy process.
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