An Introduction to Predicting Hitting
“Hitters are so unpredictable!”
Well. Yes.
And no.
You see, the supposed unpredictability of hitters is one of the biggest complaints people tend to have about MLB DFS, sometimes going so far as to wonder how anyone can be consistently profitable in MLB when it’s so stinking tough to predict who will hit well on any given night.
And yet, there are people who are consistently profitable in MLB. What does that say, then, about the unpredictability of hitting? Either those who are consistently profitable in MLB are extraordinarily lucky, or hitting is not as unpredictable as it seems.
Now, in case you haven’t noticed, the main thing we deal with in fantasy sports is statistics. As sports fans, of course, we think about statistics in terms of sports: Adrian Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards in 2012, or Ichiro Suzuki had 262 hits in 2004, or Michael Jordan had 39 games in his career of 50 or more points (really, he did, which is just insane), but what we often fail to realize — or, at least, what we fail to pay attention to — is the fact that the same rules that govern statistics in other areas govern statistics in sports. Namely: sample size matters.
Take, for example, that 262 hit season by Ichiro in 2004. In that record-setting season — the most hits in a single season in MLB history — he still had 27 games in which he recorded zero hits. Taking the large sample size, it was one of the greatest seasons ever; in small sample sizes, however, nearly 17 percent of the 161 games in which he played that year could be considered a disappointment (especially from a fantasy perspective).
This is the issue that arises when it comes to predicting hitting. A hitter gets four or five plate appearances each game. Because even the best hitters will fail to record a hit in 60 percent of these plate appearances (with the other 40 percent being walks and hits, outcomes that help us to varying degrees), we will almost always have one or two hitters on our MLB DFS roster who disappoint us. That’s a fact you have to deal with — it’s simply part of MLB DFS.
But there are two areas in which we have a much greater advantage than most people realize.
First, we can understand the art of predicting hitting to such an extent that we can always narrow down the field of hitters available on a day to the group of hitters likeliest to have a big game.
To say that another way: once you understand what goes into predicting hitting, you will no longer be choosing hitters from a pool of about 250 guys available on any given full slate of games; instead, you will be able to narrow down the field to the top 20 or 30 options going on that day. These 20 or 30 options will all be guys who are likelier than normal to have a good game. And while you cannot guarantee that these guys will all have good games, you do have the second area of advantage working in your favor, which is this:
By building a team of eight hitters who are all likelier than normal to have a good game, you effectively increase your sample size, and you put yourself in position to capture — in the small sample size of a single day — the outcomes that are likeliest to play out over the long run. Instead of hoping something good happens in the four or five plate appearances you will have from one particular hitter, you will have around 32 to 40 plate appearances from a team of hitters who are all likelier than normal to have a good game. And by collecting 32 to 40 plate appearances from hitters in positive positions, you increase your likelihood of the “large sample size” statistics playing out on each particular day.
The key, then, is simple: you need to know what goes into successfully predicting hitting.
Yes, you may have a guy in a great spot who goes 0-5, perhaps with a sharp groundout, a pair of line drives that find their way into gloves, and a pair of warning track fly outs. But because you did not just “luck into” this guy who hit the ball well that day (while simultaneously getting unlucky in that none of these hard-hit balls found grass or grandstand) — because you instead selected this guy with a sound process and with an understanding of what goes into the art of predicting hitting — he will not be the only guy on your roster hitting the ball well. Instead, all eight of your hitters will be hitting the ball well each day; all eight guys will be smacking line drives and deep fly balls around the park, and with eight guys making solid contact, things will break your way across the board far more often than not.
Combined with your knowledge of predicting pitching? Yeah, you can start to see how MLB DFS becomes a beatable game. On days when some of your hitters do poorly — when these hitters who are likelier than normal to have a good game that day end up failing to find grass or grandstand — the rest of your hitters will be able to pick up the slack and combine with your solid pitching to keep you in the money. And on those rare days when your pitchers do not pan out, your hitters will often be able to carry you into the money anyway, making up for the points you missed out on from the mound.
Once you grasp the art of predicting hitting and understand how to put it all together with the art of predicting pitching, the game of MLB DFS will be demystified, and the sense of “I just don’t get what’s going on here” confusion will evaporate.
It’s not magic. It’s not voodoo. It’s just baseball, and it’s far easier than you ever imagined. Once you understand it, you’ll find yourself wishing the season lasted months longer than it does.
Want to join me? Hop on board — let’s take this journey together! We’ll pass through this tunnel of learning, and you will emerge on the other side into a hidden valley, where the water is cool and the sun is bright and MLB DFS becomes your favorite (and most profitable!) time of year.