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Building Your Own Projections

Building your own projections can be a daunting task. But a strong understanding of excel as well as a good projections formula can help you create your own terrific projections without much work. You can also rely on projections from sites such as RotoGrinders and others to help you combine your projections into one, without having to build a complicated formula.

In this lesson I’ll discuss the process of building your own projections, as well as the use of weights in those projections to measure qualitative values.

Starting Out with Basic Stats

First things first, you need to be able to collect data for any and all basic stats. The RotoGrinders Player Stats Page is a great place to start. Data here can be easily copied and pasted into excel format.

After getting player stats, I like to organize team stats and opponent defense stats into my excel spreadsheet as well. It’s up to you which stats you want to include, but for this example I’m going to keep it fairly basic.

Then you need to get your spreadsheet organized. If you don’t have a strong understanding of excel already, I strongly recommend brushing up with YouTube courses or simple google searches. The two formulas I use the most in building personal projections are VLOOKUP and IFERROR functions. VLOOKUP allows you to search for player stats in any sheet of your file. IFERROR functions allow you to leave out insignificant players and give your final output a much cleaner look.

Next up, it’s time to pick which stats you want to use for your projections. To keep it simple, start with player stat averages against opponent stat averages allowed. Organize those stats into one sheet of your excel file and then add a projection formula (based on site-specific scoring) to achieve your first projection.

Keep in mind this is a very basic example, once you’ve gotten a good grasp of the game you can start building out your own projections with more complicated formulas. In later lessons, we’ll discuss some of the more advanced variables that can be used in your projection models.

Adding Weights

I like to include figures such as Vegas Odds and injury news as a ‘weight’ in personal projections. By scanning through stats pages you can see which players have good matchups or are heavily used in the RZ. Then add or subtract a 10%, 15% or 20% weight to that player’s total projection based on those figures. Using weights in projections can be a really easy way of measuring advanced stats without having to include them in the projection itself.

Let’s look at this example below with the following knowledge:
*Tom Brady has a terrific matchup this week against a team with two of their top cornerbacks injured
*Peyton Manning has been struggling of late, but you think it’s a good time for him to break out
*Drew Brees is facing a defense with two of its top players returning from suspension
*Cam Newton struggled to start the year but has been improving of late

How do you quantitatively measure the qualitative statements above? Through weights. It’s an incredibly simple process when doing your own projections that allows you to account for non-quantitative thoughts, including gut instincts. If your gut is telling you to play a guy, try weighting him up in your own projections. If he still isn’t ranked high, then maybe your gut is wrong.



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About the Author

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