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Calculating Value in Projections

Calculating value in players can be done in a number of ways, but when applying value to projections there is one metric that proves more successful then most. In this lesson, we’ll discuss how to calculate dollar per fantasy point value and then how to apply it to your daily lineup building process. We’ll also discuss a few other stats that can help you better understand value and salaries.

$/Fantasy Point in Daily Projetions

The simplest way to look at player value is by dividing a player’s salary on a given site by his projection. So if you have Trent Richardson projected to score 15 fantasy points and his salary on DraftKings is $8,000, his $/fantasy point value rating is $533.33

$/Point = (Player Salary)/(Player Projection)

After you have your value ratings for each player, you can then compare them based on these numbers. Here’s a sample of the Top-10 Running Backs in terms of value:

Player Salary Proj Points $/Point
David Wilson $5,600 14.39 $389.13
Brandon Bolden $4,500 10.21 $440.92
Matt Forte $8,600 19.29 $445.73
LeSean McCoy $8,800 18.85 $466.74
Reggie Bush $8,700 18.31 $475.18
Bilal Powell $6,600 13.88 $475.54
Rashad Jennings $5,200 10.50 $495.47
DeMarco Murray $7,600 15.05 $504.98
Darren Sproles $7,000 13.81 $506.77
Jamaal Charles $9,300 18.00 $516.81

Analyzing $/Point and Other Value Measurements

Using $/point figures is easy. You can compare players across positions and find which spots have strong value each week. You can compare similarly priced players and, perhaps most importantly, you can build your team around top tier value plays.

The next way to look at value in projections is by establishing a target score for the games you’re playing. On FanDuel, you need about 120 fantasy points most weeks to win the majority of your head-to-head games. If you want to take down a big qualifier, you probably need around 180. For this example, we’ll target 120 points to win head to head games.

Then consider the $60,000 of salary you have to spend on players. That means, on average, you need a $/point value of $500.00 from your players. Obviously you will have some players outperform that value and some will likely under-perform it. But a guy like David Wilson can contribute 12% of your target score for just 9.3% of the total salary if he hits his projection.

Below is the same projections as shown above with each players percentage of salary cap figure and percentage of target score stats:

Player Salary Proj Points Target %ofCap %ofTarget
David Wilson $5,600 14.39 120.00 9.33% 11.99%
Brandon Bolden $4,500 10.21 120.00 7.50% 8.51%
Matt Forte $8,600 19.29 120.00 14.33% 16.08%
LeSean McCoy $8,800 18.85 120.00 14.67% 15.71%
Reggie Bush $8,700 18.31 120.00 14.50% 15.26%
Bilal Powell $6,600 13.88 120.00 11.00% 11.57%
Rashad Jennings $5,200 10.50 120.00 8.67% 8.75%
DeMarco Murray $7,600 15.05 120.00 12.67% 12.54%
Darren Sproles $7,000 13.81 120.00 11.67% 11.51%
Jamaal Charles $9,300 18.00 120.00 15.50% 15.00%

So those are the two most efficient ways to apply value ratings to your projections. Once you’ve established value, you can begin building strong lineups around them!

About the Author

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