Cliff Notes: A Cheat Sheet to Success
I have talked about a lot of stats, and there are endless more to look at. It can get intimidating to pour over some of these numbers, especially if you are not already familiar with how to use them. I’m going to lay out a very basic list of each type of pitcher and how and when to play against them.
As you’re getting used to all these stats, you can use this as a cheat sheet to figure out what hitters to play on a daily basis. The more time you spend getting used to using all these metrics, the more you’ll begin to develop your own style of lineup building.
There are lots of ways to build winning DFS lineups, and there are successful players who use some of this data differently than I do. Don’t ever let anyone tell you, “This is the right way to do this.” My job as an analyst is to give you the tools to learn how to succeed by understanding what really makes a player who they are. Without further ado, here are the different pitcher types and how I play against them.
High Strikeout/High Ground-Ball/Low Walk Pitchers
This an elite combination where you find Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez type pitchers that I simply avoid playing against at all costs. If I see a strikeout rate of 25 percent or more, a walk rate under six percent and a ground ball rate over 50 percent, there is just no reason to play hitters against him in any type of contest.
High Strikeout/High Ground-Ball/High Walk Pitchers
This is a highly volatile group of pitchers, where you find guys like Francisco Liriano who throw a lot of gems, but are also susceptible to the occasional blow-up. I generally avoid playing against these pitchers as the high strikeout and ground ball combo is tough, but if I am entering multiple lineups in a large field tournament, it is worth stacking against these type of pitchers, as when things go bad, they go really bad. Just be aware it is a low probability play to go against these pitchers.
Low Strikeout/High Ground-Ball/Low Walk Pitchers
These pitchers I will play against with strong contact hitters in cash games. Ground balls and low walk totals do not lead to home runs or big innings. But low strikeout pitchers with a heavy ground ball tilt do tend to allow a lot of hits. This is where you might play a cheap, high-contact middle infielder to save some salary while giving yourself a good chance for a couple hits. I never stack against ground ball/low walk pitchers.
Low Strikeout/High Ground-Ball/High Walk Pitchers
This is an interesting category of pitchers like we saw in the Roberto Hernandez example. I don’t typically play individual hitters in tournaments against these pitchers because of the lack of home runs, but a pitcher who walks a lot of hitters can lead to some crooked numbers. For this reason, I will consider stacking against them in tournaments as opposed to just playing a single hitter against them. In cash games, I am willing to play hitters with strong plate discipline against them as they can give you points from both hits and walks.
High Strikeout/High Fly Ball/Low Walk Rate Pitchers
These are some of my favorite pitchers to play single batters against in large-field tournaments. Because high strikeout/low walk pitchers are generally going to be good pitchers, you don’t see many players typically roster hitters against them. But, when you are chasing home runs, the low walk rate is actually a benefit from a fly ball pitcher. If you roster a power hitter in search of a home run, you do not want a walk; you want a home run or nothing. Though it’s a low probability play because of the high strikeout rate, a lot of very good pitchers do have a tendency to give up solo home runs as they keep their pitches in the zone.
High Strikeout/High Fly Ball/High Walk Rate Pitchers
The difference between this group and the low walk rate group above is that an increased walk rate coupled with the high fly ball rate is good for stacking. Nothing leads to big innings like a combination of walks and home runs. I don’t, however, play against these type of pitchers in cash games, as playing against any high strikeout pitcher is a low probability of success.
Low Strikeout/High Fly Ball/High Walk Rate Pitchers
There are not a lot of pitchers that fall in this category because it is a really bad combination, and they probably wouldn’t last long at the big-league level. But, if you can find it, play against it early and often. Low strikeouts lead to hits, high fly balls lead to home runs, and high walks lead to baserunners and big innings.
Low Strikeout/High Fly Ball/Low Walk Rate Pitchers
Just like the group of high fly ball pitchers with low walk rates, this is a great spot to play individual batters against in tournaments as there is very high home run upside. The only difference is that there will usually be higher ownership against these pitchers than the high strikeout group because these will be pitchers that have worse overall numbers and, therefore, be well-known to play against.
Everything in the Middle
You will find a fair amount of Major League pitchers who are right around the league average in every category. Pitchers with a 20 percent strikeout rate, eight percent walk rate, 45/20/35 ground ball/line-drive/fly ball rates or thereabouts. In these cases, it becomes more about the hitter than the pitcher. In cash games, I’m always going to try to find a few bad pitchers to play against before I start picking on average pitchers. In tournaments, there is nothing wrong with playing some elite bats against average pitching as you don’t always want to play against the obvious worst pitchers to give yourself a chance to differentiate yourself from the crowd.
I hope you have found some useful information in this course. I firmly believe that the first key to success in DFS baseball is understanding the basic stats that are under a pitcher’s control. Breaking down a day’s pitchers by looking at strikeouts, walks, fly ball-to-ground ball, and lefty-righty splits will give you a very manageable list of which pitchers to play against and with what type of hitters. There will always be things that happen in baseball that cannot be predicted or controlled, but you can carefully manage the things that can be predicted and controlled.