Factors to Consider When Drafting Point Guards
Roster and Scoring Structure Tips
[For the sake of this course I’ll be using DraftKings for default rules, roster structure and scoring]
The first two things to consider, not only in daily fantasy basketball but in all daily fantasy sports, are: 1) Rules and 2) Scoring.
In regards to the basic rules (since you don’t have a choice) it’s fairly simple – follow them. First and foremost, you can’t go over the salary cap ($50,000) or select more than eight players. Among your eight players you must include players from at least two different teams and two different NBA games from that given slate of games.
The eight-man makeup of your roster must include: one center, one power forward, one small forward, one shooting guard and one point guard (on DraftKings). You must also select: a point guard or shooting guard for the extra guard slot, a small forward or power forward for the extra forward slot, and a player from any position for the utility slot.
What does this mean for the point guard position? If you so wish, you may start up to three point guards – one in the point guard-specific slot, one in the general guard slot, and one in the utility slot.
I’ll get into usage percentage a little bit later but, naturally, point guards handle the ball and facilitate offense a lot. That is why something as simple as roster structure can be important when deciding what and how many point guards to roll out on a given night. To summarize, know what you can do!
When it comes to point guards, there are certain scoring basics to keep in the back of your mind when deciding: who to start at your point guard slot, how to spend at the position, and who you should pick between a point guard and a player at some other position (shooting guard for the extra guard slot or any other position for the utility slot).
Here is DraftKings’ basic scoring breakdown:
• Point = +1 PT, Made 3-point shot = +0.5 PTs, Rebound = +1.25 PTs, Assist = +1.5 PTs,
Steal = +2 PTs, Block = +2 PTs, Turnover = -0.5 PTs
On DraftKings, there are scoring rules to exploit in favor of point guards, however if we’re going to consider the positives, we must also take in the negatives. Those generally unfavorable scoring categories are rebounds, blocks and turnovers.
Point guards aren’t known for their height or rebounding ability so they usually don’t put up consistent rebound totals. And whether they’re defending the primary ball-handler out front or doing the ball-handling on the offensive end of the court, they often find themselves further away from the basket than do players at other positions.
Just as point guards aren’t geared toward rebounding, the same can be said for them blocking shots. They’re not usually tall or lanky enough to develop a shot-blocking skill nor do they spend a lot of time near the rim.
The most common scoring disadvantage to point guards is in the form of turnovers. There are a handful of players outside the point guard position who are turnover prone, but being turnover prone and being more likely to commit turnovers based on your position alone are two different things.
Point guards handle the ball a ton, and sometimes they have to do so under a lot of defensive pressure in the front court, so it’s logical to say that they commit a lot more turnovers than your average NBA player on a game to game basis.
Unlike rebounds and blocks, which are virtually negatives by omission, turnovers are negatives by commission and therefore earn you negative points.
Point guards have a lot more advantages than disadvantages, though. The same reason they commit a lot of turnovers is the same reason they rack up a lot more assists than all other NBA positions. They dribble, pass and look to make plays more than any other position.
As far as general principles go, I can’t say that they have a distinct advantage in points and 3-pointers, but point guards do have an advantage in steals since they cover the opposing offense’s primary ball-handler a vast majority of the time.
That isn’t where the scoring breakdown stops. In addition to the basic stat-by-stat scoring, DraftKings also rewards players with double-double and triple-double bonuses (with a max of one per player). If one of your players hits double digits in two of the following categories – points, rebounds, assists, blocks or steals — he will receive a bonus of 1.5 fantasy points. If one of your players hits double digits in three of those categories, he will receive a bonus of 3 fantasy points.
With all this in the back of your mind, what kind of advantage have point guards had on all the other positions so far this NBA season?
Point Guard Production
In order to look at how point guards’ daily fantasy production compared to the other four positions a year ago, I found the average and median outputs for each position.
As you can see, the average output for the average NBA point guard through the first half of the 2015-16 season was 30.7 DK PTs, while the median output was a shade lower at 28.03. This means that, based on a 5x price/value system, your average point guard production is worth just under a salary of $6,100 on DraftKings, constituting 8.2% of your roster makeup.
All of this is to say that point guards put out a lot more raw production – and for our purposes DK PTs – than other positions.
No other position has averaged at least 30 DK PTs per and the only position with a higher median output are centers at over 31 per contest.
On the other hand, one thing to note is that the discrepancy between the average and median production is the biggest among all five positions, with close to a three-point gap.
Based on this data, point guards are the best NBA position in terms of raw DFS production. They’re pretty reliable, which is especially important for cash games, so it is beneficial to pay up at the position for good to even elite options at the position.
Why are they so reliable and consistent though?
Usage Percentage is Your Friend
Above any other possible factor, usage dictates fantasy consistency among NBA point guards. Basketball-Reference.com defines usage percentage as an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.
A higher usage rate can often lead to a drop in efficiency (like in LeBron’s ridiculous 2015 playoff run), but it also tends to increase raw production. That’s evidenced by the connection between the usage numbers here coupled and the aforementioned fantasy point production by position.
When you look at the top-20 players on the Usage Rate leaderboard, there is a big trend that pops out: eight of the top-20 players are point guards.
Each of those eight point guards possess a usage of at least 27.6% — over a quarter of their team’s plays while on the floor. And of all NBA teams, only 13 of them do not have a point guard with a usage percentage of at least 25%.
Those outliers include some obvious usage-deficient point guards like Patrick Beverly, Goran Dragic, George Hill, and Mike Conley. These come as no surprise because each of these point men share the floor with a superstar with the ability to handle the ball – Beverly with Harden, Dragic with Wade, Hill with George, and Conley with Gasol.
Outside of these select floor generals, point guards bring a lot of consistency and value because of usage. That is what makes them so valuable, from top to bottom, when playing cash games.
What about tournaments?
Pace
Don’t get me wrong. Usage rate can still play a huge factor in daily fantasy basketball tournaments, and not just cash games.
However, like I said, the wide majority of point guards use a lot of their teams’ respective plays while they man their position. Therefore, usage doesn’t create as much of an advantage when it comes to your point guard play against your fellow players and the point guard they decide to roster on any given night.
One big factor to consider is pace, or pace of play. Pace isn’t exactly the speed at which a team plays. Some teams that like to get out in transition don’t necessarily have a pace conveying that playing style.
Don’t get me wrong, pushing in transition is a big part of what pace is, but it’s not the only thing. Among other factors, field goal attempts, turnovers, as well as opponent turnovers all play a factor too.
Pace has helped the Warriors, Wizards, Thunder, and Clippers to become four of the top six teams in terms of point guard production on a daily fantasy basis. All four have a pace of play of at least 96 possessions per game. Each of them are among the top-12 fastest squads in the NBA to this point.
Even if a point guard isn’t part of a fast-paced team, they are likely to be influenced by an opponent who plays at a noticeably quicker pace.
For example, Mike Conley plays for the Grizzlies, the third-slowest team in the NBA in terms of pace. As a result, he doesn’t get that many offensive possessions, therefore hurting his daily fantasy potential (especially for tournaments).
That hasn’t quite been the case when Conley has played some of the higher-paced teams this season. In 11 games in which Conley has faced off against teams with a pace at least four possessions faster than his Grizzlies, Conley has produced at least 43.75 DK PTs on three occasions.
So, in a nutshell, usage and consistent production are important when playing cash games. But, when you’re entering tournaments, the matchup of teams and their paces can be the difference between a decent night at the office and a good haul.