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Hot Streaks and Finding Value After a Missed Cut

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Golf is a mental game unlike any other. You are not directly competing against the other players in the field; you are competing against the course and against yourself.

In a game that requires such concentration and composure, a player’s form is going to ebb and flow throughout the course of the season. There are hot and cold streaks in all sports, but they may not be as prevalent as they are in golf. When a player is clicking on all cylinders, he can go months without missing a cut. Current form is a great indicator of future success, especially in daily fantasy golf.

ragolf

When looking at a golfer’s current form, I break it down into two categories: a golfer’s form for the entire season as well as their form in recent events. This helps me gauge how well each golfer is currently performing relative to their average finishing position on the season.

When analyzing recent form, I like to look at a golfer’s cuts made and average finishing position in their last five events. Targeting golfers that are consistently making cuts and consistently posting strong finishes is a great way to build your lineup. When combined with the Vegas odds, course history, and PGA statistics, you will be able to quickly identify the top targets each and every week.

Web.com Tour Graduates

One of my favorite strategies to employ early in the PGA season is to target the Web.com Tour graduates that the casual golf fan doesn’t know about yet. In 2014, it was Jordan Spieth that came on the scene and blew everyone away. In 2015, there were two very impressive rookies in Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger.

The Web.com graduates are obviously in great form as their Web.com Tour just ended, and only the best of the best move on to the PGA Tour. Targeting the talented rookies before the masses know who they are is a great tournament strategy in the early part of the season.

Finding Value After a Missed Cut

When we talk about form, the sample size needs to be much larger than a single tournament. Even if a player misses a cut, he can still be in good form if he was playing well up until that tournament.

Recency bias plays a huge role in all daily fantasy sports, and it’s something that we can use to our advantage each week. Recency bias describes having a bias against a certain player due to their recent performance. In other words, if a player has a bad week, a lot of people will automatically fade him that next week because the last thing they can remember is that he missed the cut, so he must be in bad form.

We can use this to our advantage in both cash games and tournaments as golfers coming off of a missed cut will see a huge dip in ownership the very next week. Those golfers also typically have a depressed price, which gives us an opportunity to target that golfer at a lower price and with a lower percentage of ownership. We don’t want to target golfers in the midst of a cold streak, but a single missed cut shouldn’t be alarming, especially if the golfer had solid finishes in his previous few tournaments.

Golf is a mental game unlike any other. You are not directly competing against the other players in the field; you are competing against the course and against yourself.

In a game that requires such concentration and composure, a player’s form is going to ebb and flow throughout the course of the season. There are hot and cold streaks in all sports, but they may not be as prevalent as they are in golf. When a player is clicking on all cylinders, he can go months without missing a cut. Current form is a great indicator of future success, especially in daily fantasy golf.

When looking at a golfer’s current form, I break it down into two categories: a golfer’s form for the entire season as well as their form in recent events. This helps me gauge how well each golfer is currently performing relative to their average finishing position on the season.

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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Instructor

Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

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