How to Handle Unknown Arms
“Who the heck is this guy?”
It’s a question we find ourselves asking sometimes. Not in the same way you watch a Marlins game and see those dumb fish tanks in the walls (or that dumb sculpture in the outfield) and think, “Who the heck thought this was a good idea?” That’s a genuine question, of course, but is one to which you do not expect to receive an answer. Instead, you ask yourself, “Who the heck is this guy?” because the guy in question will be pitching for a real life, Major League Baseball team that day, and you do not even know who he is.
This is what often happens when a Minor League pitcher gets called up to make a Major League start.
Sometimes, people will automatically stack against this pitcher, assuming he is going to get rocked. (Have you been guilty of this before? If so, you know it does not always go well!)
Other times, people see that the pitcher in question is a “top prospect,” and they think, “Wow, I can get this awesome pitcher for a super cheap price. Done!” (Again: if you’ve done this yourself, you know it does not always go well!)
Ultimately, using a Minor League pitcher — a guy in his first career start, or even his fourth or fifth career start — is always going to bring more risk your way than if you were to simply stick with the “known arms” and their lengthy track records. But while you certainly take on more risk with the “unknown arms,” there is also a huge advantage to be gained in using a guy before anyone else is using him, especially when this guy is cheap and has plenty of upside.
Before we get to the things I look for in Minor League pitchers (which, I guess, from this point forward, I’ll simply refer to as unknown arms, as most of these guys will not eternally be in the minors, and the big issue is simply that we know very little about them), I want to briefly touch on the reasons why it is so valuable to know how to assess these unknown arms.