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Predicting Ownership to Gauge Your Exposure

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Predicting ownership levels can be useful in daily fantasy sports, especially when it comes to tournament play. While we don’t need to over-analyze ownership levels in cash games, it is a great way to gauge how much exposure you should to have to each player.

Predicting ownership levels can help us gear our exposure toward players that we think are going to be under-owned, as well as gear our exposure away from players that we think are going to be over-owned. Always remember that one of the keys to being successful in tournaments is to be contrarian.

Now, how on Earth are we supposed to accurately predict what ownership levels are going to be? The first step in this process is to gather as much research as you possibly can. Read as many articles, blogs, projections, and expert picks that you can find, specifically those that are tailored to DFS. There are a lot of smart people in the industry, and it doesn’t take long to find out who the popular plays are going to be for the week.

Predicting ownership levels is more of an art than a science, but doing your research will help you gauge where the industry experts stand on certain players. You will never be able to nail it down, but if you have a general idea of what you expect ownership levels to be, you can choose to be bullish or to fade certain players. The trick is that you want to have more (or less) exposure to players relative to the field.

For instance, let’s say that you think Jordan Spieth is going to be around 30 percent owned in the Millionaire Maker event. That doesn’t mean that you need to fade him because he is going to be highly owned, but you should take a stance on him one way or the other. You should either have more or less exposure to him than the field.

Repeat this same process for each player in the field. If you can get a decent idea of how owned each player is going to be, you can take a stance on each player. It’s important to do this, because we want to put ourselves in as many situations as possible to have a leg up on the field. If we have ownership percentages that mimic the rest of the field, our lineups are never going to truly have an advantage when it comes to individual players.

As I mentioned above, this is more of an art than a science, and it’s going to take some practice in order to really grasp the concept. A good way to practice is to keep a log of each player each week and predict what percentage of ownership you think each golfer will be. Once the lineups lock, compare your percentages to the actual ownership percentages of the field. Look at the biggest differences between the two and try to figure out why your predictions were off. After some practice, you will become much better at it and you can use it to your advantage when building tournament lineups.

Predicting ownership levels can be useful in daily fantasy sports, especially when it comes to tournament play. While we don’t need to over-analyze ownership levels in cash games, it is a great way to gauge how much exposure you should to have to each player.

Predicting ownership levels can help us gear our exposure toward players that we think are going to be under-owned, as well as gear our exposure away from players that we think are going to be over-owned. Always remember that one of the keys to being successful in tournaments is to be contrarian.

Now, how on Earth are we supposed to accurately predict what ownership levels are going to be?

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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Instructor

Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

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