Projecting Minutes
If you can accurately project minutes on a consistent basis, you are well on your way to finding success playing NBA DFS. Depending upon your comfort level, available free time and/or technical acumen, you may opt to project player minutes yourself or to rely upon a third party – there are a multitude of sites that offer both paid and free options – to handle this task for you. There’s no one correct way to approach this – it’s really dependent upon your own personal preference.
While choosing to utilize a third party to handle your minute projections will certainly save time, don’t do so blindly. If you are able to do so, review past minute projections from the third party site and compare the accuracy between at least a few different options. Some degree of inaccuracy is to be expected – they’re not psychic after all – but you need to feel comfortable that more often than not, they’re within a reasonable range of accuracy. Looking for trends can also be helpful; many sites – especially sites that offer minute projections for no cost – utilize algorithms to handle their projections. Make sure to note if a certain site often over-projects a player’s minutes on back-to-backs or in potential blowout situations and adjust accordingly.
Speaking of situations to be mindful of, there are many that will impact how you should be handling your minute projections – whether you’re projecting them on your own or using a third party’s.
Point spreads: If Vegas is projecting a blowout, there is always the potential for starters to see their minutes reduced. All coaches will handle blowout situations differently – you’ll see some teams rest their entire starting five for the fourth quarter if the game is out of hand and other coaches may opt to rest only certain starters for extended periods of time – so you’ll need to be aware of how they’ve handled these scenarios historically. Understanding when a game has the potential to get out of hand can allow you to properly adjust your expectations for playing time. Identifying such scenarios may allow you to find value in bench players that you believe will see additional playing time and conversely start players that you feel may see a reduction in minutes.
Back-to-back games: The NBA schedule is truly a grind and because of this, coaches may opt to give players – particularly veterans – a day off occasionally when faced with back-to-back games. With a team such as the Spurs, this occurs often and generally will include multiple players. Other coaches may opt to rest only older veterans – such as the Minnesota Timberwolves handling of Kevin Garnett this season – or players who’ve recently returned from injury. Monitoring news sources such as Twitter or Rotoworld can provide you with this information in time to make adjustments.
Matchups: While we often factor in a player’s individual matchup when projecting their fantasy point potential, their matchup can also affect the amount of minutes we project them for. If, for example, you’re considering rostering a center that is prone to racking up fouls and he is going to be tasked with guarding Andre Drummond all evening, you should factor in a potential reduction in playing time if this player were to find themselves in foul trouble. Consideration also needs to be given to the lineup construction of an opponent. If you’re considering rostering a traditional power forward against the Pacers on a night that Paul George is starting at power forward, your player could find themselves on the bench more than usual just due to the way they match up against the Pacers’ small-ball lineup.
Role changes: Whether due to the struggles of an entire team or an individual player, coaches will often tinker with their lineup combinations throughout the season. A player that was the second or third option off the bench who moves into a starting role – and potentially an increase in minutes – could potentially offer value in the immediate future, as it will take the site’s pricing algorithms time to adjust accordingly. Conversely, when a player is moved to the bench and their minutes reduced, they will potentially be overpriced for a time.
Injuries: As injuries occur throughout the year, backups will see their minutes extended and rotations will be adjusted. Following these injuries and projecting which players will be impacted by them will be key to finding success in daily fantasy. We’ll dig into this topic further in the next lesson.
Each of these factors will come in to play when you are projecting a player’s minutes on a daily basis. Unfortunately due to the nature of the NBA, much of this information breaks very close to tipoff each night. Ensuring that you have access to breaking news near the time of lineup lock – Twitter is my preferred method – will allow you to react accordingly.
And with that, we’re on to our next lesson!