Understanding Daily Fantasy Basketball Information and Alerts
In NBA DFS, it is very important for us to be considering changes in information leading all the way up to lock. On sites where there is late swap, like DraftKings, we must consider information even after lock has occurred. All this is related to projecting player performance. The information provides viable clues as to how projections should be adjusted. Your lineups can and will be impacted almost every single night by information that is released close to lineup lock.
Most DFS players will be happy to accept the projections changes as they see them from their projections source. As a new player, you don’t have to feel pressure to know everything there is to know about making projections. However, you would be served well to understand how they are made and especially why they are being adjusted as new information arrives. When you are ready, you may be able to find ways to exploit stock projections once you fully understand the range of possibilities that are created by late-breaking information.
For now, let’s start you off with a process for getting ready for Crunch Time and a foundation of where to get information as quickly as possible.
Do not assume the information you understand to be true will remain true. The best NBA DFS players are vigilant about news and information. Situations change and many times change suddenly. You must be ready to react and become skilled at making decisions impacted by lineup related news leading up to game time.
Getting Ready for Lineup Lock
If you’re waiting until late in the day to become familiar with the injury landscape and other scenarios that could affect lineups, you are doing yourself a disservice. The best way to avoid information overload and improve decision making is to prepare long before “Crunch Time” begins. Here are some tips to help get you ready for the whirlwind of later breaking information.
— Understand the injury report for every team playing.
— Understand that there multiple designated official times when NBA teams must update player status for the night. The reports will be posted daily at 1:30 p.m. ET, 5:30 p.m. ET and 8:30 p.m. ET.
— Understand rest situations that may be in play. You can learn this from twitter, from our Situation Room on RotoGrinders, or by studying situations in which a team is playing multiple nights in a row or on limited rest. “Back to Back” games or playing 3 games in four nights are often scenarios where you may find an elevated risk of rest.
— Make preparations for how each team’s player projections might change in each scenario. Sometimes, there will be multiple possibilities. The more prepared you are for each situation, the better your decision making will be when the time comes. Use CourtIQ to test changes in player efficiency with different players on and off the court.
— Understand what news you will not have when the initial lineup lock occurs. Some games have late start times, and you simply will not have all the information you need on starting lineups. You must understand this and adjust your play accordingly.
Get Ready for the Night Now:
— Starting Lineups Page
— LineupHQ
— The Situation Room
— NBA.com Injury Report
— RotoGrinders CourtIQ
Key Information Sources
— RotoGrinders DFS Alerts: Download this application and set up push notifications from your phone. We have a team that tracks DFS relevant information and reports it via this app as quickly as possible.
— RotoGrinders Starting Lineups Page: One of the best places to find expected starting lineup information, and will update upon confirmation of the official starting groups.
— LineupHQ: Once new information is received, our projections team will update player performance projections as quickly as they can to account for it. We alert you when players are added or removed from the pool via messaging.
— RotoGrinders Crunch Time Show: We have a show that leads all the way to lineup lock each day that is designed to help coach you through late-breaking lineup decisions. We report the news and ensure you are up to date on the DFS relevant situations.
— Twitter: You may or may not be using Twitter for social media, but the keyword for NBA DFS is “media.” NBA beat writers, NBA DFS information sites such as FantasyLabs, and other sources are constantly monitoring and reporting on NBA starting lineup news. I would highly recommend setting up an account and learning to search for information including beat writer lists. It’s okay to rely on other sources like our Alerts team, but some of the best around expand upon that and ensure they have multiple outlets for information.
There are other sources and outlets for information that you can find on the web, and it is your duty to take responsibility for your decision making. Staying instantly informed is the hallmark of a successful NBA DFS player.
Making Adjustments
Once the news hits and your projections have updated, your job is not done. Here is a short checklist of things you should be doing in order to increase your chances of success.
— Ensure you understand the impact of the change on the game’s expected outcome overall.
— Watch for movements in betting market expectations.
— Understand the changes that have occurred in projections and what things could have variable / uncertain expectations. While projections are likely to be reasonable, there are often multiple possible outcomes in any new scenario.
— Understand how the projections change the landscape of top plays for the day. Many times, a player who wasn’t even on the radar may suddenly vault to top play status in an instant.
— Be aware of how roster construction will be impacted. You may have planned for a balanced build that day due to pricing efficiency, and sometimes new information can quickly turn that on its head.
— Be aware of how ownership will be impacted in tournaments. There are many examples of how ownership could fluctuate, but one example might be a player who was previously a top value that becomes overshadowed by the emergence of late value. You should be constantly aware of what your opponents are likely to do, and find intelligent ways to focus on high probability plays that do not attract as much attention.
— Remember that on late swap sites, you may need to watch the news all the way through the lock of the final game. Make an effort to stay connected to the news if you play on late swap sites and accept the small edge you get against opponents who fail to account for news after lock.
— Related to late swap, you may need to prepare for roster flexibility if a key player has an uncertain status. Always design your rosters with the latest players in the flex spots.
Summary
It is your job to stay on top of the news and understand what it means for your lineups. RotoGrinders has many tools to help you, but emerging victorious in your DFS lineups will ultimately fall on you. Arm yourself with as much information as possible, prepare for the night, and make every effort to improve your late day decision making up to roster lock and beyond.