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  • Daily Fantasy Golf Research and Strategies: How to Win in PGA

Vegas Odds and Line Movement

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Vegas lines and odds are one of the best tools in all of daily fantasy sports. Most DFS pros follow the Vegas lines and odds religiously, and for good reason.

Vegas is responsible for setting the lines for millions and millions of dollars of bets that come in each day. Their main goal is to create a line or a set of odds that most accurately reflects what is expected to happen at a sporting event. That will create even betting over the course of the long run, which then allows the sportsbooks to profit off of the vigorish. Their need to set accurate lines gives us a great tool to use in daily fantasy sports.

Vegas odds are just as important in daily fantasy golf as they are in any other sport. Vegas needs to set accurate odds each week, or the golf bettors will fully take advantage of any bad odds that are set. Basically, once we know that we can trust the oddsmakers, we can let them do a lot of the legwork for us.

Vegas is going to factor in a lot of the same things that we are looking for, yet they sum it up nicely in one little number known as the odds to win. The odds shouldn’t be the end-all, be-all, but they are a great tool to use in your weekly research. And guess what? They are FREE!

Where to Find Odds for DFS Golf

The site that I use each and every week is www.oddschecker.com. Most of the time, sportsbooks will have similar lines in sports such as NFL, NBA, and MLB, but golf is an emerging market, both for betting and for daily fantasy. Many sportsbooks have vastly different odds for golfers each week. Instead of solely relying on one book to make my lineup decisions each week, I like to compare multiple sportsbooks to get a more accurate representation of a golfer’s true odds to win. This is where Oddschecker really comes in handy.

ragolf

As you can see from the picture above, Oddschecker allows you to compare odds across different sportsbooks. These odds are easily exportable into excel, and from there you can create the “true” odds for each player by quickly calculating the average odds taken from all of the sportsbooks.

When looking at the odds each week, I focus most of my efforts on the odds to win the tournament, however, some sportsbooks will post odds for a top-ten finish as well. These can be beneficial to look at, as there are a few golfers on tour that routinely finish in the top-ten, but rarely win tournaments. One example that comes to mind is Jim Furyk. Since the start of 2011, he has only had one victory on tour, yet he has posted an astounding 33 top-ten finishes. Golfers like Furyk will have much better odds to finish in the top-ten than they will to win the tournament.

Comparing Vegas Odds to DraftKings Salary

One of the simplest and most effective research tools in daily fantasy golf is to compare each golfer’s odds rank with their salary rank on DraftKings. If you use excel, this is easy. Just use the “Rank” feature and select the data for the salaries and the Vegas odds. Finding the biggest difference between the odds a golfer has to win and where he is priced relative to the field will help you find the best value plays each and every week. Here is an example from the Byron Nelson Invitational:

ragolf

If you were only able to use one source of information each week to construct a winning lineup, this would be your best bet. You can quickly find the golfers that are underpriced on DraftKings relative to their odds to win the tournament. You will also be able to rule out the golfers that are overpriced relative to their odds.

Line Movement

The last piece of advice that I will give you regarding the Vegas odds is to constantly check for line movement. There are two main reasons for this. First, Sportsbooks odds aren’t set in stone, so if there is a mistake that at the beginning of the week, they will correct it as it gets closer to the start of the tournament. Second, Sportsbooks will adjust their odds based on the amount of money coming in on each golfer, or as new information becomes available.

One of my favorite tricks is to grab the odds off of Oddschecker at two separate times: right when the odds come out (Monday morning works just fine) and then again the night before the tournament. I’ll then compare the two and see which golfers had the biggest movement in their favor, as well as which golfers’ odds moved the wrong direction.

It’s important to understand why money is coming in on certain golfers and be able to use that to our advantage. There are certain players that will always be overvalued in terms of odds, but in general, players with positive line movement should be on your radar that week. At the very least, it should give you a reason to further explore why that golfer’s odds are moving in the right direction.

Vegas lines and odds are one of the best tools in all of daily fantasy sports. Most DFS pros follow the Vegas lines and odds religiously, and for good reason.

Vegas is responsible for setting the lines for millions and millions of dollars of bets that come in each day. Their main goal is to create a line or a set of odds that most accurately reflects what is expected to happen at a sporting event. That will create even betting over the course of the long run, which then allows the sportsbooks to profit off of the vigorish. Their need to set accurate lines gives us a great tool to use in daily fantasy sports.

Vegas odds are just as important in daily fantasy golf as they are in any other sport. Vegas needs to set accurate odds each week, or the golf bettors will fully take advantage of any bad odds that are set. Basically, once we know that we can trust the oddsmakers, we can let them do a lot of the legwork for us.

Vegas is going to factor in a lot of the same things that we are looking for, yet they sum it up nicely in one little number known as the odds to win. The odds shouldn’t be the end-all, be-all, but they are a great tool to use in your weekly research. And guess what? They are FREE!

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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Instructor

Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

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