Why Vegas Lines are Important
What’s one thing that Las Vegas sportsbooks and daily fantasy football players have in common? We all want to make money. The wizards in Vegas need to be accurate in creating their lines, or they wouldn’t make any money, and they also wouldn’t have jobs if they weren’t bringing in the green for the suits. The Vegas lines help us quantify the likelihood of events in a highly unpredictable game, and they give us an ultimate primer for creating accurate projections. By using Vegas lines, we’ll have an idea how the game flow for a particular game may go, which is important for DFS. You wouldn’t want to select a running back on a team that is projected to lose by two touchdowns because if the folks in Vegas are accurate in the line they set, then there’s a chance your running back is going to be game-scripted right out of the game while his team is forced to throw for the last half. That’s bad news for your DFS team.
Before I even attempt to narrow down my potential player pool for the upcoming week, the first thing I do is look at the Vegas lines to try and get an idea on which games I should be targeting. Along with that, throughout the week I am paying attention to any line movements that may occur.
When it comes to viewing the Vegas lines there’s a few key items I am focusing my attention on. First, I am looking at games with high projected totals because these are games that Vegas tends to believe will be a high-scoring affair. They’re typically games that have an over/under of at least 50 points. More points for the NFL team equals more points for your fantasy players. Easy, right?
With the Vegas total we can create a projection for each NFL team in that game. For example: the Packers and Bears are playing in a game with an over/under of 50 points, and the Packers are four-point favorites. To calculate the Packers projected total, we subtract half of the spread from half of the projected total. Since the Packers are four-points favorites, they would have a projected total of 27, and the Bears have a total of 23. Targeting teams with high totals is a great way to start when building your DFS teams.
Second, I am looking to see which teams are favorites. There are certain skill positions I will favor if they’re slated to be the favorite in that game. One of those positions is running back (more on that in later lessons), but I also seek out favorites when choosing my defenses. Besides looking at the spread to see if a team is a favorite, you can also look at the money line.
The money line simply shows which team is expected to win. For example, the opening money line for the Packers and Bears game looks like this: Packers: -190, Bears: +170. Since the Packers have the negative number, they’re the favorite. The higher the negative number, the bigger the favorite that team is. This is important because money lines can have a positive or negative correlation with expected fantasy points, some more than others. For example, on a team that is -250 or better to win, that team’s fantasy defense finishes with 1.49 points greater than their average expected points. I’ll touch more on that in the later lessons.
I’ve highlighted a few advantages of utilizing the Vegas betting lines when constructing DFS lineups, and in the following lessons I am going to go in depth on how I use the lines to select my quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends and defenses. I’ll be comparing home and road favorites to home and road underdogs for each skill position and for defenses.
Other data I’ll research is how certain positions score when Vegas has them projected for X amount of points. For example, receivers average more than two additional fantasy points when their team is projected for 24 or more points than they are when the team is projected at three touchdowns or fewer.
Have you ever wondered if wide receivers on teams that are projected to be underdogs actually have an advantage over receivers on teams projected to win in a blowout? Well, I’ve got you covered.
My goal with these lessons is to provide with you actionable information that you can use for constructing your DFS lineups. Ultimately, I want to inform you on the importance of utilizing the Vegas lines to your advantage and what you should be looking for. These lessons will give you a better understanding of the Vegas lines and ultimately help make you a more profitable DFS player.