RotoGrinders: Daily Fantasy Projections FAQ
The RotoGrinders Projections run daily each morning to help you construct better Daily Fantasy teams, in less time. The RotoGrinders staff has spent countless hours tweaking an algorithm for each sport that factors in the stats you care about, to provide automated projections that give you an edge on the competition. In addition they are managed daily by our team to adjust for news and updates that trickle in throughout the day!
NOTE: The RotoGrinders Daily Fantasy Projections are an Incentives Only tool.
Click any of the links for the sport to jump to the full description of that sport’s projections.
- Football Daily Fantasy Projections
- Basketball Daily Fantasy Projections
- Baseball Daily Fantasy Projections
Within that, the projections are site-specific each day. So we will project specific fantasy point totals based on each site’s scoring system. Our projections also include player salaries and player value ratings. Value is based on $-spent per fantasy point projected. Here are the 7 sites we currently offer these site-specific incentives for:
What do Player Projections look like?
All of our projections are site specific and tailored to daily matchups. Below is a sample image from MLB Projections.
Legend:
- Top 25’s – Top 25 Value Plays at Given Position. Value based on $ per fantasy point values.
- $/pt – This is a figure found by dividing player salary for the given site by their projection for that day. Lower $/pt numbers imply increased value. Higher $/pt numbers imply lower value for that player.
- Yellow Backgrounds imply that a player is not an every day starter
- Red Backgrounds imply that a player’s game has already started for that day.
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NFL Football Daily Fantasy Projections
When are NFL Projections Posted?
Our NFL Daily Fantasy Projections are first updated every Wednesday morning of the NFL season. They are then tweaked throughout the weak as injury and other fantasy-related news comes in. So if a starting running back is expected to miss a game, the NFL Projections will mark him to OUT and increase the projection for his replacement.
What Components Go into NFL Projections?
Our NFL Projections are calculated based on a number of key statistical variables. They are then looked over by an NFL Daily Fantasy expert who checks their validity and makes any adjustments to ensure they look as accurate as possible. Stats that factor into our NFL Projections include:
- Season Statistics
- Opponent Statistics Allowed
- Percentage of Workload Stats (What percentage of carries, receptions, etc. a player gets for their team at specific position)
- Recent Performance Stats (Last 3 Games)
What Do the Red Letters Next Players’ Names Mean?
Below is a list of status tags used in NFL Projections. These tags can help you avoid player injuries as well as understand which players stand the most to gain from a player who is questionable and doesn’t end up taking the field.
- O – OUT – Player is out that week.
- D – DOUBTFUL – Player is doubtful to play that week.
- IOT – IF OUT THEN – Player listed is questionable. This tag will show another player’s name next to it on the projections page. The 2nd player listed is the biggest fantasy beneficiary if the questionable player is unable to take the field.
- Q – QUESTIONABLE – The Questionable tag is used for players who are questionable to play but have no direct beneficiary if they are unable to play, therefore the IOT tag above wouldn’t be used.
- P – PROBABLE – Player is likely to play but be sure to check back right before kick off just in case.
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NBA Basketball Daily Fantasy Projections
When are NBA Projections Posted?
Our NBA Projections are released every morning by 8 AM EST of the NBA season. These are updated throughout the day as player news comes in and injuries are revealed. We work hard to ensure that our projections are always accurate and up to speed with the latest and breaking news around the NBA.
How do Injury/Status Tags Work For NBA?
Given the nature of the NBA’s injuries system, it can sometimes be difficult to know if a player is going to sit or start. For that reason, we have a number of injury tags that can help you understand why players are projected a certain way, as well as where value might fall if a player is forced to sit out:
- O – OUT – Player is out for that day
- D – DOUBTFUL – Player is unlikely to play that day
- IOT – IF OUT THEN – Player is questionable for a given night and if he does not play, the biggest beneficiary, fantasy wise, to that injury is listed after the IOT tag. So if Joakim Noah is questionable for a game and Taj Gibson is most likely to get more minutes with Noah out, Noah’s tag will look as follows:
Joakim Noah (IOT- Taj Gibson)
- CS – Check Status – This tag is essentially the opposite of the IOT tag. This would be applied to Taj Gibson in the Joakim Noah example above to indicate that Gibson’s projection and fantasy value depend on the status of Noah.
- Q – QUESTIONABLE – Player is questionable and there is no player that would directly benefit from the player being out. This is applied to bench players who are questionable or guys who, if out, would be filled in for by a number of players who would all receive a minimal fantasy boost.
- P – PROBABLE – Player is likely to play but there is still a slight chance he will be unable to.
These injury and status tags are the best way for you to be able to see exactly which value plays you should be targeting as well as who you should be avoiding each night.
What Components Go into NBA Projections?
Beyond the injury updates, our NBA Projections are reviewed thoroughly each day to make sure that each player is being projected as accurately as possible. Our projections formula takes the following stats into account:
- Player Season Stats
- Opponent Defensive Stats Allowed Per Game
- Player Percentage of Workload Stats (Player Average Stat / Team Average Stat)
- Recent Performance (Last 7 Games Played)
Why Isn’t a Player Listed in Projections?
Another way in which our projections are monitored and updated each day is through the removal of non-essential players. On a busy NBA night, there are hundreds of players who will take the court. A large percentage of these players will not be fantasy relevant though, as they are only likely to play a few minutes. So if a player is projected at under 10 fantasy points, he is weighted out of projections to help you better find value and avoid the clutter of hundreds of players being listed.
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MLB Daily Fantasy Projections
When are MLB Projections Posted?
Perhaps the most difficult sport to project for daily fantasy is baseball. For this reason, we use far and away the most variables when factoring together an MLB player projection. Our MLB Projections are updated every morning by 8 AM EST and are edited throughout the day as player news comes in. We have a full team working on these each day to ensure that the projections are sound.
How do Injury/Status Tags Work For MLB?
For baseball, the use of injury tags is more straightforward than other sports. If a player is on the disabled list, he will be listed as OUT. If a player is on an active roster, then he will be listed as active. We don’t use the questionable, doubtful or other tags from NBA and NFL in baseball projections because of the constant lineup changes that occur on a day to day basis. Always be sure to check the MLB Lineups Page to see if a given player is in the lineup each day.
What Components Go into MLB Projections?
Our MLB Batter Projections factor in the following variables:
1) Career Statistics
2) Season Statistics
3) Lefty/Righty Splits – Often times BvP splits are insufficient. That’s where righty/lefty splits come in. Many players have drastic stat changes against different handed pitchers and this variable factors that in.
4) Batter vs. Pitcher Split Statistics – If a batter has had great success against that day’s opposing pitcher, and the sample size is big enough, you can bet he’s going to be high in our daily projections.
5) Recent Batter Performance – Is a player hot right now? MLB is a game of streaks so using recent batter performance is essential.
6) Park Factors – Everyone knows Coors Field is a hot bed for runs to be scored. But that’s not the only place. This increases or decreases a players value based on the park they will play in. (Coming during 2nd half of 2013 season)
7) Opposing Starting Pitcher – There are a small number of starters in the MLB you probably want to avoid hitters against. These ELITE pitchers are factored into our formula and players going up against them will be projected a little lower.
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Still Have a Question?
Still have a question after reading this FAQ? Shoot us an email, and we’ll get back to you as soon as possible!