NFL Props and Pick'em

Since Tyreek Hill went down in Week 4, Miami has the 6th-lowest neutral pass rate (55%). Over the last 6 weeks, that number has tumbled to 46.4%, which is the lowest mark in the league. Miami has gone 4-1 in that span, so the approach is working. They are also on a 3-game winning streak. Tagovailoa hasn't topped 23 attempts or 175 passing yards in that stretch.

The Jets have seen the 3rd-lowest opponent passing rate per game. They've allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game, largely due to the low volume. Teams have opted to run the ball against the Jets, with great success. I'm expecting plenty of De'Von Achane in this one.

I'd be fine with Tagovailoa u27.5 attempts as well. That route feels a little more reliant on Miami playing with a lead though. We can get there with the yardage even if Miami can't control the game like they have recently. Tagovailoa is averaging 190 passing yards per game this season.

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