NFL Props and Pick'em

The books have adjusted the Josh Allen lines to a good spot, but they forgot to do the same with Nix.

To close out his rookie year last season, Nix went over this number in his last 4 games, including a loss to the Bills in the playoffs.

To close out this season (as the Broncos were fighting every game to get the #1 seed), Nix hit the over on this number in 4 of his last 7 games, with 2 of the misses coming in at 18 and 20 yards.

The Bills allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to QBs during the regular season and the highest yards per carry on QB runs.

With everything on the line in this game, Nix is much more likely to fight for extra yards whenever he takes off compared to a regular season game, and this line just doesn't reflect playoff football to me.

I would play this to 24.5.

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Unlock my pick and get unlimited access with a Premium subscription which includes: daily expert picks for multiple sports, total, moneyline, spread, parlays, and more, and in-depth analysis with every pick.

Unlock my pick and get unlimited access with a Premium subscription which includes: daily expert picks for multiple sports, total, moneyline, spread, parlays, and more, and in-depth analysis with every pick.

Unlock my pick and get unlimited access with a Premium subscription which includes: daily expert picks for multiple sports, total, moneyline, spread, parlays, and more, and in-depth analysis with every pick.

Unlock my pick and get unlimited access with a Premium subscription which includes: daily expert picks for multiple sports, total, moneyline, spread, parlays, and more, and in-depth analysis with every pick.

Unlock my pick and get unlimited access with a Premium subscription which includes: daily expert picks for multiple sports, total, moneyline, spread, parlays, and more, and in-depth analysis with every pick.

Unlock my pick and get unlimited access with a Premium subscription which includes: daily expert picks for multiple sports, total, moneyline, spread, parlays, and more, and in-depth analysis with every pick.