NFL Props and Pick'em

The Falcons have given up a league-low total of just 176 yards receiving to TEs through 8 games. Prior to last week when Hunter Henry went for 51 yards, the highest total they had allowed all season to a single TE was 21 yards.

They have also had one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league in terms of total yards, allowing a league-low 1,398 yards (175 yards per game) through the air. Some of that is due to the opponents they have faced, but it's the lowest by a considerable margin, so it's safe to say they are doing something well, mainly getting to the QB, posting the 6th-highest pressure and sack rates in the league.

Warren has a target rate of just 15% on pass plays when Daniel Jones is pressured.

We are also starting to see Warren's target share in total dip over recent games compared to the start of the season. He is now at an 18.1% target share for the season compared to 21.5% in his first 4 games as a rookie. Over the past 5 weeks, his target share is just 15.8%.

Warren is good and could beat us, but everything is pointing to an under.

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