Justin Verlander Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The likely AL Cy Young winner was blown up by the Mariners in the first game of the divisional round (4 IP – 6 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 3 K – 21 BF) and struck out a similar number of Yankees in his only start against them, but with much better overall results (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 3 K – 27 BF). The strikeout rate increased late in the season, finishing at 27.8% (23.4 K-BB%) to go along with an excellent contact profile that included a 19.7 IFFB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE and just a 34.8% hard hit rate. His 1.77 ERA was well below estimators ranging from a 2.49 FIP to a 3.23 xFIP. He was breaking estimators with a .240 BABIP and 80.5 LOB% that weren’t even career bests until running into the Mariners, but has had a full week to contemplate his failures in that effort. All of Verlander’s pitches grade extremely strongly by Statcast measures (RV) with the Yankees struggling only with the slider (-0.17 wSL/C) among those in the second half. Verlander also has one of the top defenses in the league behind him (25 Runs Prevented, .268 BABIP allowed). The most expensive pitcher on the board is also the top projected one. Verlander projects as the second best value on either site, but with just 0.2 P/$ separating first from third on DraftKings and even less (0.02 P/$) separating the top three projected FanDuel values. The closed roof in Houston makes the park a slightly negative run environment, though it’s also slightly negative if open.

The Yankees own the lowest team run total on the board (2.97) by half a run, while RHBs (.243 wOBA, .276 xwOBA) at least stood a chance against Verlander, while he dominated LHBs (.201 wOBA, .235 xwOBA), of which the Yankees have very few anyway. Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .384 ISO vs RHP this season) is still the second best projected bat on the board, but is also the only Yankee projecting among the top 10. No Yankee projects among the top 10 FanDuel values, though you’ll find three among the top 10 projected DraftKings value. Harrison Bader (90 wRC+, .117 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (60 wRC+, .143 ISO) and Jose Trevino (74 wRC+, .120 ISO), the expected bottom of the Yankee order, all cost $2.5K or less.

Hats off to all the brave souls venturing to navigate this second to last day of the regular season slate. We have double-headers (three), though just one with any relevance to the main slate and only on DraftKings. We have some nasty north-east weather. We have a nearly fully set playoff picture with the only thing to be determined on the main slate is some wild card seeding, where teams might rather play the central division winners rather than eastern division wild cards. Several pitchers who were set to go last night have either already been scratched (Carlos Rodon) or altered (Jon Gray, Julio Urias). A couple of managers (Dusty Baker, Dave Roberts) have also mentioned resting regulars and it’s hard to imagine the Yankees will exhaust their regulars in a meaningless double headers. With all of that said, let’s get to tonight’s most expensive arms and try to figure out who’s actually viable.

Most expensively of the now just (one…two…) three $10K pitchers on the board and the only one now reaching $10K on DraftKings, Justin Verlander has struck out 21 of 68 batters since returning from the IL and 26.9% on the season with just a 4.3 BB%. Allowing just 6.3% Barrels/BBE with a 34.7% hard hit rate, he’s merely looking to put a cherry on top of his Cy Young season, but may not be pulled too quickly, as he won’t pitch again for a week, although there’s absolutely no reason for him to be pushed here either. Verlander is the outlier of outliers with a .242 BABIP and 80.3 LOB% that aren’t even the best of his career, but a 1.80 ERA is still well below estimators ranging from a 2.57 FIP to a 3.33 xFIP. All of his pitches grade strongly, but the curveball (19%, -1.9 RV/100, 24.2 Whiff%, .203 wOBA, .206 xwOBA) may be most useful against the Phillies (-0.19 wCB/C since the break). This is not an easy spot by any means though, as the Phillies have a 104 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP, but who knows what their lineup will look like after clinching a wild card spot last night and only needing to lose to avoid facing deGrom and Scherzer in the first round. With the expectation of a full workload, Verlander is tonight’s top projected pitcher (and may even be without a full workload at this point). He also projects as either the fourth or fifth best value on the board. Check out today’s PlateIQ Live blog for an in depth breakdown of tonight’s most expensive pitchers.

We conclude the regular work week with a large 14 game slate that includes no less than six $10K pitchers, but just one more exceeding $9K on both sites. Costing exactly $11K on both sites, Justin Verlander last pitched on August 28th and has not had a rehab start. He is not said to be on a specific pitch limit, but won’t throw 100 pitches. It’s probably safe to say it will be many fewer than that. While his 1.84 ERA is more than three-quarters of a run below estimators ranging from a 2.70 FIP to a 3.33 xFIP with a .231 BABIP and 81.1 LOB%, it’s a shame that a pitcher with a 22.0 K-BB% won’t be a full go in such a great matchup (A’s 83 wRC+, 24.0 K% vs RHP) in a pitcher friendly environment (assuming roof closure), as the Astros just need Verlander healthy more than anything else. He still projects as the top pitcher on the slate, but outside the top five projected values. One last interesting little trinket, Oakland has been the fourth best offense against fastballs since the break (0.63 wFB/C), but this projected lineup has a ton of strikeouts in it, even if they do manage to do some damage. For a detailed breakdown on every pitcher costing more than $9K on both sites tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A 13 game Tuesday night slate includes six $10K pitchers on FanDuel (three on DraftKings) with one more reaching $9K on both sites. The loaded pitching board starts with Justin Verlander most expensively on either site. He has produced eight Quality Starts in a row and has completed seven innings in 10 of his 21 starts. The workload is the real value here, as the strikeout rate (25.7%) isn’t elite, but he’s still able to rack up strong game totals by not walking anyone (4.6 BB%) and pitching deep into games. A 19.9 IFFB% and 34.7% 95+ mph EV that have produced more popups (30) than barrels (26) have also helped. All estimators are more than a run above his 1.85 ERA (.233 BABIP, 81.6 LOB%, eight unearned runs), but a 2.90 xERA to a 3.41 xFIP isn’t a bad range either. Verlander is throwing his four-seamer 50.5% of the time (-1.7 RV/100, .266 wOBA). The White Sox are a bottom third of the league offense against fastballs (-0.27 wFB/C), though they don’t strike out a ton vs RHP (20.2% with a 96 wRC+). Verlander projects in an essential tie as the second best arm on the board (though with a different pitcher on each site), though he’ll have to face some hitter friendly conditions (weather and umpire). The high cost places his point per dollar projection merely among the middle of the pack tonight. For much more on all of tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the highly volatile top projecting arm tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A nine game Wednesday night slate features three $10K pitchers on either site, though not necessarily the same three. Most expensively on either site, Justin Verlander has failed to produce a Quality Start just three times in his last 19 outings, while going at least seven innings in seven of his last 11. He’s doing amazing things for a nearly 40 year-old pitcher, but his 1.73 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 2.96 xERA to a 3.43 xFIP. The reasons for this are a .229 BABIP, 83.5 LOB% and eight unearned runs. His 25.5 K% is more good than great, while the 4.6 BB% and 30 infield flies are more impressive. The Rangers represent a favorable matchup with a 94 wRC+ and 23.4 K% vs RHP this season. Verlander is the clear top projected arm on the slate and also the top projected value on DraftKings, which is sure to make him immensely popular, though just the fifth best projected FanDuel value for $800 more. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitching, including the top Verlander pivot and the high priced pitcher who projects as one of the worst values on one site, but the best on another, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

An eight game Thursday night slate includes 25% of the pitching board exceeding $9K on both sites. A 30.5 July K% over four starts has increased Justin Verlander’s season rate to 25.6%, but the real stars of his return this year have been a 4.6 BB% and 20.6 IFFB%. He’s generated more popups (29) than barrels (24) and that’s breaking estimators once again. His 1.81 ERA comes with a .233 BABIP, 83 LOB% and a 2.95 xERA that’s his only estimator below three. He also has one of the best defenses in the league behind him (20 Runs Pevented) and has gone at least seven innings in seven of his last 10 starts. He’s in a tough spot in Cleveland tonight (108 wRC+ with a league low 17.7 K% vs RHP). Cleveland is also the fifth best offense in baseball against sliders (0.13 wSL/C). Verlander throws his 29.4% of the time (-0.7 RV/100). None the less, Verlander is the top projected pitcher on the slate that features more workhorses than high strikeout rates, but as the only pitcher exceeding $10K on both sites, he projects as merely a middle value on either. For more on tonight’s most expensive pitchers, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Friday night’s 13 game slate features six pitchers exceeding $10K on FanDuel, three costing at least that much on either site and one more above $9K on both. Justin Verlander has Quality Starts in eight of his last nine outings, six with at least seven innings pitched, but perhaps the more interesting development is that he’s struck out 27 of his last 77 batters faced. This has pushed Verlander’s season strikeout rate up to 26.1% and with great control, a 21.4 K-BB%. While he’s allowed 7.2% Barrels/BBE, he’s actually generated more popups (25) than barrels (22). Verlander has recently been a bit of an estimator outlier, running another .234 BABIP and 83.0 LOB%, still quite a bit off of his career marks. A 3.01 xERA is the closest estimator to his 1.86 ERA. While he has a difficult matchup (Mariners 105 wRC+, 22.4 K%) in a power friendly, but run negative park with a hitter friendly umpire, Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on either site, but is essentially in a three way tie for the third best projection on the board, Thus, he projects as a mere middle of the board value. For a much more detailed analysis on tonight’s top heavy pitching board, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

We have a large 14 game Friday night slate that features four $10K pitchers (three of them on both sites) in addition to another three reaching the $9K price point on both sites. Justin Verlander is the most expensive pitcher and only one to reach $10.5K on either site, which he does on both and he may be overpriced. Verlander has just a 25.5 K% and has exceeded six strikeouts in just two of his last nine starts. Certainly not bad for a 39 year-old coming back from Tommy John surgery, but not the standard he’s normally held up to either. With only four of his last 11 runs and 75% of his yearly total being earned, his 2.30 ERA is more than a full run below all estimators, except for a 3.10 xERA, which registers his 6.8% Barrels/BBE and 16 IFFBs. It’s really the 4.7 K-BB% that’s driving the 20.8 K-BB% this year. Striking out fewer batters, Yankee Stadium could be more of a detriment to the extreme fly baller. The Yankees have a 16.9 HR/FB at home and 122 wRC+ vs RHP (also at home), along with just 20.5 K% and 15.6 HR/FB. Verlander is the third best projected pitcher on the board (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change), but a much worse projected value that most other top projected arms tonight. Verlander is just one of many top arms in difficult matchups. To find out which of these pitchers projects best tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.