Jose Urena Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jose Urena will work deep into games (at least 26 BF in four straight), but doesn’t miss a lot of bats (exactly four strikeouts in five of seven starts). His 90 mph aEV could be a problem at Wrigley on an evening where the weather is not expected to be as imposing a factor as it has been the last two nights. In fact, Weather Edge (premium subscription required) is showing an early potential positive effect on run environment. An inability to miss bats could hurt Urena here as the Cubs have an 11.4 BB% and 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP. The key bat is fairly obviously going to be Anthony Rizzo (129 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). He should see some RBI opportunities in his customary third slot (actual lineup has not yet been released). Either Ben Zobrist (111 wRC+) or Daniel Descalso (103 wRC+) would be the value bat in the leadoff spot. Either is below $4K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel. LHBs have just a .317 wOBA against Urena over the last calendar year, but that’s partially the effect of pitching in such a negative run environment all the time as they also have a 42.6 Hard% against him. With three teams above five implied runs tonight and the Cubs just below (4.91), it’s possible bats could go under-owned in this spot.

While certainly not a safe play today, it is worth considering Jose Urena in GPPs this afternoon. Urena gets the start at home vs. the Phillies, where he’s been slightly better for his career (.318 xwOBA at home since 2016, .359 xwOBA away). Urena will have the platoon advantage against 5 hitters, important given his splits (.303 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2016, .353 xwOBA vs. LHB). Without J.T. Realmuto in the lineup, the Phillies will have just 3 batters who had an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .315 last year (Harper, Hoskins, McCutchen) and their lineup isn’t as scary as it may seem. Also working in Urena’s favor is pitching in arguably the best pitcher’s park in baseball, and a pitcher friendly umpire in Ryan Additon. At just $5.7k on Draftkings, Urena won’t have to do much to hit value. The Phillies have a 4.77 implied line against him and the Marlins on Sunday.

While there are some expensive pitchers in great spots tonight, finding value among the mid-tier and lower priced pitchers tonight might be a bit more difficult. Wade LeBlanc (19.4 K%, 4.33 SIERA, .333 xwOBA) has a 4.82 SIERA to go with his 1.91 ERA over the last month, but also a .311 xwOBA that's lower than his season mark. He's in a great park in Seattle against the Rangers (82 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+ vs LHP) for a cost around $7K. Tyler Glasnow (28.7 K%, 3.60 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) has cooled a bit over the last month (21.1 K%, .347 xwOBA) He's pitched in some tough parks against some tough offenses in that span though and actually faces Toronto for the third time in five starts, but the first at home. After being bludgeoned for seven runs in less than an inning the first time, he threw a quality start in Toronto last time out. There is a $1.8K gap in his price tag from DraftKings to FanDuel. Jose Urena (18.6 K%, 4.30 SIERA, .323 xwOBA) moves from one extremely negative run environment to another. The Mets are a league average offense against RHP, but have just an 87 wRC+ and 9.8 HR/FB at home. Urena costs less than $8K.

The clear top pitcher on tonight's slate is incredibly expensive. Many players are going to look to pivot and DraftKings players need a much cheaper supplement. The problem is that those values may be hard to find. Miles Mikolas has been a consistent contact manager (85.5 mph aEV) with little strikeout upside (16.8 K%) and that upside gets even less against the Pirates (19.8 K% vs RHP), while he's allowed at least four runs in three of his last five starts. He's also gone beyond six innings in just one of his last four. Andrew Suarez (19.5 K%, 4.26 SIERA, .329 xwOBA) might be a viable option in a great park. He's gone at least six innings in four of his last five, but has also allowed five runs in two of those starts and the Braves have a 110 wRC+ with a 19.9 K% vs LHP. Tyler Glasnow was routed by the Blue Jays for seven runs in less than an inning in his last start and has an even tougher matchup with Cleveland tonight (105 wRC+, 19.1 K% vs RHP), but he's at least at home, still has a 26 K% over the last month and costs just $5.9K on FanDuel. Shane Bieber (19.9 K-BB%) is on the other side of that matchup for less than $9K with a substantial park upgrade. He's had tremendous issues with LHBs though (.395 wOBA, 51.5 Hard%). Joe Musgrove has a 26.7 K% and 3.00 SIERA (.301 xwOBA) over the last month. He's completed seven innings in eight of 17 starts and gets a slight park upgrade in St Louis (19.8 K-BB% last seven days). He's up to $9.1K on DraftKings, but still just $7.7K on FanDuel. Jose Urena (18.8 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .325 xwOBA) could be a moderately priced complement to his opponent in New York (84 wRC+, 9.1 HR/FB at home), but the Mets have been a much better team since the All-Star break. Sonny Gray has allowed just four runs over his last 19.2 innings, but that includes just one start. He did pitch into the seventh inning in that start without allowing a run in Baltimore. The Twins are a below average offense, but don't strike out a ton (21.6% vs RHP). DraftKings players might also consider Brad Keller in that SP2 spot. He has just a 16.2 K%, but keeps the ball on the ground (53.1%) and costs less than $6K in a spot with some upside (White Sox 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP).

Players looking to grab some value at pitcher in the early slate might be in luck if they're willing to accept that struggling pitchers are likely to return to previous norms. There are a number of arms in the $6-8K range with the potential to return profit on their price tags. Jose Urena (18.4 K%, 4.26 SIERA, .328 xwOBA) might be a league average pitcher in a great park, yet is frequently under-priced. He's recorded a sixth inning out in 16 of his 26 starts and hosts a Phillies' offense with a 94 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. That offense has improved over the last month, but still has a 70 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% and -7.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Dallas Keuchel (17.7 K%, 4.02 SIERA, .307 xwOBA) has seen his hard hit rate increase in recent starts against tough divisional foes (Oakland, Seattle, Los Angeles), but faces a Twins' offense with just an 84 wRC+ and 8.4 HR/FB against LHP today in one of the most negative run environments in baseball at a cost of just $7.9K on DraftKings. Vince Velasquez (26.2 K%, 3.97 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has just an 18.3 K%, 5.51 SIERA and .343 xwOBA over the last month, but may be able to get back on track in Miami (<85 wRC+ at home and vs RHP) for just $6.6K on FanDuel. Michael Fulmer allowed seven runs in Kansas City last time out after 4.2 shoutout innings in his first start back from the DL. That first start was against the same White Sox (18.9 K-BB% vs RHP) he'll be facing today. He's within $100 of $7K on either site.

Three teams are above 5.2 implied runs tonight. All three are also above 6.2 implied runs and the Red Sox are second among that group at 6.33. They'll face Jose Urena, fresh off suspension and straight to Fenway, who has held RHBs below a .300 wOBA with a 54.6 GB% this year. This is Fenway however, where J.D. Martinez (189 wRC+, .352 ISO vs RHP this season), Mookie Betts (169 wRC+, .268 ISO) and maybe even Xander Bogaerts (140 wRC+, .266 ISO) are high end bats even against quality right-handed pitching. Batters with the platoon advantage have a .326 wOBA (.353 xwOBA) against Urena this year. Andrew Benintendi (145 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (117 wRC+, .231 ISO) are the standard bats there. On top of the extremely positive run environment, the weather report for Boston tonight suggest even more favorable hitting conditions. Play the first five Boston bats as the salary cap will allow.

Jose Urena has a league average 4.11 SIERA and pitches in a great park, but has struggled as of late. He has just a 6.3 K-BB% over his last five starts, completing six innings just once with a 38.2 Hard%. The Mets don't have a lot of bats who can do damage and just a 3.88 implied run line, but LHBs have a .330 wOBA against Urena since last year with a 38.8 Hard% and .374 xwOBA. Jeff McNeil is off to a great start (153 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP) and still costs $3.5K or less near the top of the lineup. Brandon Nimmo (145 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Michael Conforto (115 wRC+, .181 ISO) are both usable in this spot as well.

Shane Bieber has a 19.0 K-BB% through 10 starts, still his lowest at any level since being drafted. He also has some really dangerous platoon splits (LHBs .397 wOBA, 35.2 GB%, 48.9 Hard%). Quickly name all the LH White Sox batters who should be feared. He gets a park upgrade against an offense with a 19.0 K-BB% at home and 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP. Bieber costs around $8K on either site. Kevin Gausman has struck out two batters in three of his last four starts. Though it was just 4.6% in his last start, his 11.1 SwStr% is still the highest of his career. The Brewers have a lot of power (15.6 HR/FB on the road, 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP) and they’ve recently added more power. On the other hand, he must greatly benefit from leaving the AL East, is now pitching in a neutral park and the Brewers have just a 95 wRC+ with a 25.2 K% vs RHP this year. Jose Urena has just a 6.3 K-BB% over his last five starts, completing six innings just once with a 38.2 Hard%. He’s still missing enough bats to be useful (18.2 K% last 30 days) at the right price (around $6K) and has league average estimators in a great park. The Mets don’t strike out a lot (21.6% vs RHP), but have just an 11.5 HR/FB vs RHP. Derek Holland has a 30.6 K% over the last 30 days and has allowed just five ERs over his last 16.1 innings, all on the road. His 24.2 K% for the season is eighth best on the board and he pitches at home tonight against an average offense vs LHP (96 wRC+, 21.9 K%) at a cost below $8K. Nathan Eovaldi has already paid off for the Red Sox through two starts: 15 IP – 0 R – 1 BB – 9 K. He has the third best xwOBA on the board (.297) and is in a spot with some upside (Orioles 24 K% vs RHP).

With every high end pitcher carrying either some weather or personal risk, paying down may be a choice for some players. However, lower priced pitchers seem more a complement to higher end guys on DK than strong stand alone options with the one exception possibly being Jaime Barria, who costs $5.9K on FanDuel and much more on DraftKings. Barria is a marginal pitcher at best (19.1 K%, 4.44 SIERA) and even has the highest aEV on the board (89.9 mph). However, he has a great matchup against an offense with a 19 K-BB% both on the road and vs RHP in a great home park. Jose Urena is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, but has a reasonable 19.9 K% for the season and a .285 xwOBA that's 43 points lower than his actual mark over the last month. The Braves have just a 20.3 K% vs RHP, but also just a 93 wRC+ and 10.5 HR/FB. Urena costs less than $7K in a great park. The recently added Joey Lucchesi has gone beyond five innings by just a single out once since returning from the DL (five starts) with around a league average strikeout rate over that span. Not what you're looking for out of an $8K pitcher, but the Mets have a 77 wRC+, 26.1 K%, and 8.3 HR/FB vs LHP and may be down Cespedes again in a pitcher's park. High risk/low cost options include Luis Castillo (18.7 K% with a 14 SwStr% over the last month) at home against the Cardinals and Sean Newcomb, who's hard contact rate is up, ground ball rate is down and has struck out more than three in just one of his last five starts, but is facing the Marlins (78 wRC+, 8.1 HR/FB vs LHP) in a top park.