Lucas Harrell Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Lucas Harrell has just a 7.7 K-BB% and is facing an offense that has not been good vs RHP (89 wRC+), but has been difficult to strike out (18.4% vs RHP). While he has allowed just a 27.4 hard contact rate to both right and left handed batters, RHBs have a .357 wOBA against him (LHBs .295) due to a 12.3 BB%. In an offensively advantageous park, the A's are projected for 4.8 runs and Harrel's reverse split actually plays into their hands as they really don't have many potent LHBs, but have a few RHBs who have fared decently against same handed pitching in the top half of the order. Khris Davis (122 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the first place to look, but Danny Valencia bats second and costs just $3.6K on DraftKIngs. He's been only average against RHP this year (98 wRC+, .139 ISO), but is in a great spot at an affordable price and has a 145 wRC+ away from Oakland since last season.

The Twins don't often have a run projection above five runs at home against a RHP, but meet Lucas Harrell (career 4.0 K-BB%, 4.81 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 4.44 xFIP in 425 innings). The issue for us as daily fantasy players is that it's more his control (9.0 BB%) than hard contact (23.1%) that's done him in, perhaps tempering our interest in Minnesota bats despite the high run projection. Miguel Sano (129 wRC+, .238 ISO career vs RHP) might be an affordable exception for $4.2K or less on either site. Max Kepler has been a pleasant surprise vs RHP this year (123 wRC+, .305 ISO), but costs $4.9K on DraftKings.

Lucas Harrell has struck out 10 of 51 batters, walking just three with just 16.7% of batted balls hit hard in two starts against the Marlins and Cubs. It’s an incredibly small sample size and is preceded by several years of minor league irrelevance with massive walk rates. While his 60.8 F-Strike% is league average, his 36.9 Zone% overall is beyond terrible, meaning his initial success is not expected to last, though it may not blow up immediately against a Colorado offense with an 81 wRC+ and 16.9 K-BB% on the road. He may suffice as a secondary option on the bottom of the board on two pitcher sites, but not much more. While a couple of bats like Arenado (126 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be useful at more moderate prices on DraftKings, Rockies' bats generally don't provide much value on the road.

Lucas Harrell hasn't pitched regularly in the major leagues since 2013. He's bounced around the minor leagues with walk rates nearly matching his strikeout rates since, which is not a good thing against a Cubs team that has a 10.8 BB% against RHP. Perhaps that's why they have a run projection over six at Wrigley tonight. For his career, LHBs and RHBs both hit Harrell equally well with less than 10 points of separation in wOBAs just above .330 and an equal amount of HRs (18 for LHBs, 19 for RHBs). His one strength was limiting hard contact below 25% to all batters and a 57.8 GB% against RHBs. The Cubs have shuffled their lineup with Tommy La Stella (132 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP this season) a great leadoff bargain at the minimum cost on FanDuel, though twice that on DraftKings. A disappointing Jason Heyward (78 wRC+ vs RHP this season) drops down to sixth. The top five are a solid stack on either site, though with more value at lower costs on FanDuel. Bryant (141 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP career) and Rizzo (154 wRC+, .268 ISO since 2015) are both top overall bats bumped up a spot in the lineup tonight.