Alex Avila Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Richards has made two starts so far in 2019, totaling just 5 and 1/3 innings pitched between the two. He’s thrown just 144 innings since 2016 and made his debut earlier this month on the 16th after not appearing in an MLB game since July of the previous season. He’s unsurprisingly shaking off some rust and has posted a .374 xwOBA allowed so far in 27 batters faced. The D-Backs don’t have a great lineup, but they are in a good spot here and are very cheap across the industry. Alex Avila (.355 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Kevin Cron (.346), Jake Lamb (.333), Eduardo Escobar (.323), Nick Ahmed (.317), Josh Rojas (.317), Tim Locastro (.306) and Jarrod Dyson (.273) are all options in the D-Backs’ projected order. Lamb has been on fire with a .443 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks and somehow costs just $2.8k on Draftkings. Avila is another great value option at just $3.3k on DK. Besides Escobar, all D-Backs hitters are $4k or less on Draftkings and $2.9k or less on Fanduel despite a healthy 5.24 implied total tonight vs. Richards and the Padres.

Luis Castillo is a great pitcher, but since coming into the league he has always been much less effective in road starts, and that trend has continued in 2019. For his career, Castillo owns a 3.18 ERA / 3.20 xFIP with a 20.9% K-BB and .268 xwOBA allowed at home, compared to a 4.17 ERA / 3.92 xFIP with a 14.8% K-BB and .316 xwOBA allowed on the road. Alex Avila (.371 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Ketel Marte (.367), Christian Walker (.348), Eduardo Escobar (.320), Josh Rojas (.312), and Adam Jones (.306) are all good options in the D-Backs’ projected order. Castillo is more vulnerable vs. lefties (.312 xwOBA vs. LHB, .268 xwOBA vs. RHB in career) so Avila, Marte, Escobar and Rojas all get a bump here. With the exception of Marte ($5.3k) and Escobar ($4.4k) all D-Backs hitters are cheaper than $4k on Draftkings. On Fanduel, any D-Backs’ hitters besides Marte and Escobar are available for under $3k. The D-Backs currently have a 4.25 implied line and figure to see extremely low ownership on this slate; they are a contrarian GPP option only.

The Diamondbacks will face Elieser Hernandez this afternoon, who showed some promise as a starter earlier in the year but has been in the bullpen for almost the past month. Recently announced to return to the rotation, Hernandez will be on a low pitch count this afternoon and isn’t someone to necessarily shy away from as he did have a 4.87 FIP and 2.0 HR/9 over 26 2/3 innings as a starter. The D-Backs project to see plenty of plate appearances vs. the Miami bullpen, who has allowed a 7th worst 4.87 xFIP on the year. Ketel Marte (138 wRC+, .232 ISO vs. RHP this year), David Peralta (128 wRC+, .220 ISO), Alex Avila (126 wRC+, .301 ISO), Jake Lamb (109 wRC+, .167 ISO), and Eduardo Escobar (103 wRC+, .227 ISO) are the best options in the D-Backs order this afternoon. Jake Lamb has been their hottest hitter with a 154 wRC+ over the past 30 days, and is one of their more affordable hitters across the industry. D-Backs hitters will also have the advantage of an extremely hitter-friendly umpire in Alfonso Marquez. Certainly not a slam dunk play by any means (especially being in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park) a D-Backs stack is a way to get super contrarian on this slate as they are almost guaranteed to have very low ownership. They currently have a 4.32 implied line vs. Hernandez and the Marlins Sunday afternoon.

Bettis comes into Saturday's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks following three consecutive blowup home outings at Coors Field, as he has allowed at least five earned runs on each occasion and failed to strike out more than three hitters in all but one of those starts. Bettis had been a candidate for regression all year long prior to this most recent stretch, so it appears that some that regression has finally come to fruition, though it may be far from over with his 4.66 SIERA still more than a half run higher than his 4.06 ERA through 12 appearances this season. The low 16.0% strikeout rate is nothing new for Bettis, as his career mark is just 16.6%, but the elevated 7.5% walk rate certainly is uncharacteristic, especially over last season's pristine 5.5% walk rate, which has greatly contributed to his rising ERA and SIERA over the last month. Bettis has exhibited some slight reverse splits this season, so a right-handed hitter like Paul Goldschmidt (40.7% HH%, 0.217 ISO, 0.461 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) remains firmly in play for all formats and his projected value shouldn't be dinged just because he sacrifices the platoon advantage in this matchup. That said, Bettis is still more than attackable from the left-side of the plate as well, which makes Jake Lamb (0.250 ISO, 0.447 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), Daniel Descalso (39.7% HH%, 0.205 ISO, 0.383 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017), and David Peralta (40.8% HH%, 0.374 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) the top Dodgers lefties to target. Meanwhile, Jon Jay and Alex Avila (53.3% HH%, 0.580 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) are certainly worthy options to round out a Diamondbacks stack in tournaments, especially Jay with his high 84.9% contact rate and above-average 40.1% hard-hit percentage at the top off the order, despite his other subpar advanced statistics this season, which keep him from being a viable one-off target given his inability to produce substantial upside without the assistance of his teammates more often than not.

Ben Lively has been missing bats around a league average rate this season (21.7 K%, 8.5 SwStr%), though the only part of his strong contact management game from last year that remains is a 4.5% Barrels/BBE. His 34.3 LD% is probably not sustainable, but has led to a .385 BABIP and .363 xwOBA so far, while he completed six innings for the first time last time out. A low price tag ($4.9K) against an offense with an 86 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs RHP and a middling 4.03 implied run line makes him slightly interesting in a secondary role on DraftKings with a useful strikeout rate now. The pitch he's throwing more is a changeup. The one he's throwing less is a sinker that wasn't getting ground balls anyway. Lively has a large platoon split. RHBs have been around league average against him, LHBs have a .383 wOBA (.381 xwOBA) against this fly ball pitcher. Alex Avila (129 wRC+, .418 xwOBA, .205 ISO, 54.6 Hard% vs RHP) has been the best left-handed hitter in the lineup and is cheap at a difficult position, but does not have an enviable lineup spot. The most competent right-handed portion of this lineup comes at a high cost. Jarrod Dyson (93 wRC+) costs less than $3K in the two hole, where players are only really hoping he accidentally reaches base and steals. The Phillies have the third highest run line on the slate (4.43) against Matt Koch, who acquitted himself well in his first major league start (6 IP - 2 H - 1 ER - 1 HR - 2 BB - 4 K vs the Padres) since he received two in 2016. The 27 year-old has run strikeout rates around 15% in the high minors the last few years without more than 75 innings at a top since 2015. The last scouting report he was a part of on Fangraphs (late 2016) called him a middle reliever with sixth starter upside. The first five batters in the Philadelphia order all have been above average against RHP since last season via wRC+. Rhys Hoskins (167 wRC+, .314 ISO) is the stud, Aaron Altherr (112 wRC+, .227) is cheap and on fire (179 wRC+, .57.1 Hard% last seven days) and Carlos Santana (116 wRC+, .207 ISO) costs less than $4K on either site as well.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have the top offensive expectations on the board (4.7 implied runs). Chris Stratton's 2.60 ERA is predicated on a .213 BABIP despite 34.8 LD% without a single infield fly in three starts. He hasn't allowed a HR yet, pitching in three different west coast parks. Statcast estimates a .367 xwOBA some 134 points above his actual at this point with a 90.7 mph aEV. He's walked as many (seven) as he's struck out over his last two starts. It's not a very potent lineup against RHP, but David Peralta (117 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP since last season) is showing signs of life (182 wRC+, 54.6 Hard% last seven days) and a low cost Alex Avila (129 wRC+, .203 ISO, .422 xwOBA, 54.5 Hard%) just hits the crap out of baseballs thrown by right-handers. While LHBs have a wOBA (.327) much higher than RHBs (.283) since last year, remove a favorable home park and batters from either side have an xwOBA in the .340 range. Paul Goldschmidt (136 wRC+, .249 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (105 wRC+, .194 ISO) are expensive bats, the latter not providing much better than league average production against same handed pitching. Lineups for this game have not yet been confirmed.

Adam Wainwright makes his first start of the season after a short DL stint with a hamstring issue. He surprisingly had a league average .326 xwOBA some 20 points below his actual mark last year, though a .346 xwOBA against LHBs confirms his actual .351 mark. While the inclination might be to jump on Arizona bats against a pitcher with a potential leg issue and poor splits with the platoon disadvantage, we see an implied run line of just 3.64 for the Diamondbacks in a tough and only one real LHB who has been above average against RHP since last year: Alex Avila (132 wRC+, .202 ISO, 53.8 Hard%). If you're relying on speed, Ketel Marte (87 wRC+, .125 ISO) and Jarrod Dyson (96 wRC+, .114 ISO) need to reach base first and then deal with a diminishing, yet still difficult Yadier Molina behind the plate. David Peralta (110 wRC+, .161 ISO) has been competent, but failed to match his big 2016 last year. Also consider that Wainwright may not have a long leash in this game and the Diamondbacks may be left to play matchups with the Cardinal bullpen after just two times through the order whether the veteran is pitching well or not.

The Cubs are employing their "hangover" lineup in St Louis the night after clinching the division. The problem for Lance Lynn, who struggles with LHBs (.348 wOBA, 16 HRs, 1.9 K-BB%) is that their B-squad is fairly potent from the LH side and Lynn has struck out more than four in just two of his last 11 starts. The level of sharpness of those in the lineup is impossible to know after last night's festivities, but there still may be some useful daily fantasy bats. Kyle Schwarber has a 108 wRC+ and .277 ISO vs RHP this year and Ian Happ a 116 wRC+ and .275 ISO. The Cubs may even be able to provide a couple of low cost bats in Alex Avila (135 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP) and Tommy La Stella (128 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP). Lance Lynn has generally been more effective in his career at home against predominantly RH lineups where the park will help him limit power concerns. He's allowed just nine of his 26 HRs at home this season, but with just a 9.7 K-BB%. The Cubs are implied for a slate low 3.3 runs, perhaps accounting for the expected celebration hangover effect.

It's a pitching deficient eight game slate on Thursday night with 10 of 16 teams currently implied between 4.8 and 5.8 runs with nobody below 3.66 at this moment. The Chicago Cubs have thrashed the Mets each of the last two nights and are the top projected offense on the board, a bit more than a quarter of a run ahead of the Yankees. Seth Lugo is certainly not the worst pitcher on the board, but his strikeout increase over the last month (24.6%) is not supported by an 8.3 SwStr% that is roughly equivalent to his season rate (8.5%). He generally struggles to go deep into games and the Met bullpen has been a mess. Lugo has almost no split with a wOBA between .325 and .327 to batters from either side with a 35% hard hit rate, though he gains five points on his ground ball rate against RHBs (45%). Among projected starters, only Jason Heyward and Javier Baez are below average hitters against RHP. The top six, as well as Alex Avila (138 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP), are all reasonably strong plays. Kris Bryant (139 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP) and Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) are the obvious top plays. The Yankees face Wade Miley, which may sound a bit better than it actually is. While RHBs do have a .366 wOBA against him this year, they have just a league average 31.4 Hard% and a 49.7 GB%. Over his last six starts though, he has a 21.2 K% and 54.2 GB% with a 4.1 Hard-Soft%. While his ERA is just 3.18 over this span, his estimators are a run higher due to a 12.3 BB%, while he’s failed to reach six innings in half of those starts. RHBs (125 BF) have a .331 wOBA, three HRs, an 8 K-BB%, 52.9 GB% and 21.2 Hard% over this span. The Yankees have a 17.7 HR/FB at home, but just a 96 wRC+ against LHP with a hard hit rate of 29.4% vs LHP and at home. That said, there are a few Yankees who have mashed LHP this year: Aaron Judge (144 wRC+, .273 ISO, 46.9 Hard%), Gary Sanchez (127 wRC+, .264 ISO, 37.5 Hard%), Matt Holliday (139 wRC+, .231 ISO, 41.5 Hard%) and Todd Frazier (115 wRC+, .295 ISO, 35.9 Hard%). Of that group, only Holliday (37.7%) has a fly ball rate below 42%.