Andrew Suarez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Andrew Suarez gets his first start of the season. His 8.9 K-BB% six AAA starts is even less inspiring than his 7.3 SwStr% and 40 Hard% in 160.1 major league innings last season. Despite being implied for just 3.99 runs in a difficult park, there might be a leveraging opportunity (SlateIQ is available to premium subscribers) in considering some Atlanta bats in this spot. RHBs had a .363 wOBA and hit 22 HRs against Saurez last year and 10 of those came at home. Ronald Acuna Jr. (172 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Josh Donaldson (141 wRC+, .216 ISO) are firmly in play here, as is Tyler Flowers (132 wRC+, .198 ISO) at a reasonable price at a tough position. Also consider Austin Riley, who’s set the league on fire through his first week (221 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%). San Francisco is never an ideal spot to look for offense on night slates, but it will help players differentiate somewhat tonight.

Monday's 12 game board seems fairly deep in pitching value among the mid and lower price ranges. Looking for a DK SP2 to compliment a higher priced arm? Erick Fedde has struck out 26 of his last 41 batters and faces the Marlins (sub-85 wRC+ at home, vs RHP and last seven days) in a great park for just $5.3K on DraftKings. Andrew Suarez might be a league average arm by strikeouts and estimators, but faces the Padres (90 wRC+, 15.8 K-BB% vs LHP) for $7K or less. Hyun-Jin Ryu won't throw more than 90 pitches and isn't very cheap, but he's gotten through at least 5.2 innings in four of his last six starts and takes a 28.5 K% up against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 24.1 K% on the road) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Miles Mikolas is a low strikeout arm (17.2%) in a low strikeout spot (Braves 20.2 K% vs RHP), but he's a great contact manager (85.4 mph aEV) in a strong contact management spot (Braves 95 wRC+, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP) at a reasonable cost of $7.3K on FanDuel. Only Zack Wheeler is averaging more innings per start. Kyle Hendricks has his strikeout rate just above 20% now with an 85.1 mph aEV. The Diamondbacks have an 81 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP. Joe Musgrove has completed seven innings in eight of 18 starts and while results have been less spectacular lately, he does get the Royals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) at home without a DH.

The clear top pitcher on tonight's slate is incredibly expensive. Many players are going to look to pivot and DraftKings players need a much cheaper supplement. The problem is that those values may be hard to find. Miles Mikolas has been a consistent contact manager (85.5 mph aEV) with little strikeout upside (16.8 K%) and that upside gets even less against the Pirates (19.8 K% vs RHP), while he's allowed at least four runs in three of his last five starts. He's also gone beyond six innings in just one of his last four. Andrew Suarez (19.5 K%, 4.26 SIERA, .329 xwOBA) might be a viable option in a great park. He's gone at least six innings in four of his last five, but has also allowed five runs in two of those starts and the Braves have a 110 wRC+ with a 19.9 K% vs LHP. Tyler Glasnow was routed by the Blue Jays for seven runs in less than an inning in his last start and has an even tougher matchup with Cleveland tonight (105 wRC+, 19.1 K% vs RHP), but he's at least at home, still has a 26 K% over the last month and costs just $5.9K on FanDuel. Shane Bieber (19.9 K-BB%) is on the other side of that matchup for less than $9K with a substantial park upgrade. He's had tremendous issues with LHBs though (.395 wOBA, 51.5 Hard%). Joe Musgrove has a 26.7 K% and 3.00 SIERA (.301 xwOBA) over the last month. He's completed seven innings in eight of 17 starts and gets a slight park upgrade in St Louis (19.8 K-BB% last seven days). He's up to $9.1K on DraftKings, but still just $7.7K on FanDuel. Jose Urena (18.8 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .325 xwOBA) could be a moderately priced complement to his opponent in New York (84 wRC+, 9.1 HR/FB at home), but the Mets have been a much better team since the All-Star break. Sonny Gray has allowed just four runs over his last 19.2 innings, but that includes just one start. He did pitch into the seventh inning in that start without allowing a run in Baltimore. The Twins are a below average offense, but don't strike out a ton (21.6% vs RHP). DraftKings players might also consider Brad Keller in that SP2 spot. He has just a 16.2 K%, but keeps the ball on the ground (53.1%) and costs less than $6K in a spot with some upside (White Sox 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP).

In a significantly negative run environment, Andrew Suarez can get away with a .352 wOBA against RHBs…maybe. At Coors, it’s just playing with fire. The Rockies have a 5.82 implied run tonight that leads the board by more than one half run and that still might be a bit too conservative when Suarez has to face Nolan Arenado (214 wRC+, .401 ISO vs LHP this season) and Trevor Story (161 wRC+, .333 ISO). Matt Holliday costs less than $4K in the middle of this lineup and has a 258 wRC+ over the last week.

Without an exceptional value among tonight's highest priced arms, paying down for pitching is a reasonable consideration tonight, though there's significant risk in a lot of those spots as well. Nick Pivetta continues to have trouble keeping runs off the board, but also has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (28.2%). The .337 BABIP simply has no basis. In fact, his .306 wOBA suggests a much better pitcher. The Cubs may be difficult (11.7 K-BB%), but it’s not an overall terrible spot. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 17 innings and another seven unearned runs with just 12 strikeouts (91 BF). He has shown some upside this year and is in a high upside matchup (White Sox 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP) with a park upgrade tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu has not reached even 90 pitches in an outing since April. He does have a 29.7 K% on the season and 26.9 K% since returning from the DL, though with just a league average SwStr%. He has the best xwOBA on the board (.273) by over 20 points and that number drops to .225 in his five home starts. The Diamondbacks are a better offense vs LHP (101 wRC+ and a split best 26.7 Hard-Soft%), but they have a team 53 wRC+, 17.5 K-BB% and 8.0 HR/FB over the last week and find themselves in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. Andrew Suarez and Antonio Senzatela are below average pitchers, but in great matchups and great parks at a low cost. Jameson Taillon has eight strikeouts in each of his last two starts. If he can sustain a strikeout rate even a little above average, he’s a useful arm now that he’s pitching deeper into games (at least six innings in six straight and eight of his last nine starts). His .298 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board. The Braves have just a 20.3 K% vs RHP, but are not an above average offense against them.

Nobody on the main slate can come close to matching the upside of either pitcher in Houston tonight, but the two pitchers in San Francisco both appear far to cheap on DraftKings. Both Ivan Nova and Andrew Suarez are within $100 of $5K on DK. Suarez has a 7.3 SwStr% that more befits his 15.3 K% over the last month than his 20.9% mark for the season and Nova is sitting at just 16.7% for the year. While Nova has a .361 xwOBA, due to an 89.5 mph aEV and 8.6% Barrels/BBE, he gains a park upgrade, which should help smother left-handed power that the Giants don't even really have anyway (16.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 10.5 HR/FB at home and vs RHP). His platoon splits shouldn't be an issue here, while Suarez doesn't really have to worry about much power from the Pirates either (12.5 HR/FB, 12.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) in a great park. These are probably both below average pitchers, who become serviceable in this spot at an extremely low price. Neither is going to win anyone a GPP on their own, but they could allow players to roster someone who can.