Anthony DeSclafani Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The most expensive pitcher on a seven game slate that includes five potential dome games is Tylor Megill, who reaches $9.6K on DraftKings. Megill has come out of nowhere to become somewhat of a savior to the Mets’ rotation. In fact, an argument can be made that he’s been the top starter on the team since being called up. Over seven starts, he holds a 27.1 K%. While a 2.6% Barrels/BBE mark and 93 LOB% are likely to regress, his worst estimator is a 3.89 xFIP. Megill has five straight starts allowing one run or less. Should the roof be closed tonight, he would be pitching in the second most negative run environment, according to Statcast Park Factors, against a Miami offense with an 89 wRC+ vs RHP that has deducted from their lineup at the trade deadline. Of the eight projected position players tonight, four have a 21% or lower strikeout rate against RHP this year, while the remaining four strikeout at least a quarter of the time. Among those with more than one start this season, only Andrew Heaney has a higher strikeout rate tonight, but Megill has completed six innings just twice this year. However, he’s recorded sixth inning outs in three straight starts.

Within $300 of $9K on either site, Anthony DeSclafani is the only other pitcher to exceed $9K tonight, as he does so on DraftKings as well. In the 16 starts where he hasn’t faced the Dodgers, DeSclafani’s allowed just 21 of his 43 runs. That said, he’s also allowed 10 runs over his last 14.2 innings. The 16.7 K-BB% is good enough to keep estimators tightly packed between a 3.61 FIP and 4.04 SIERA, all more than half a run above his 3.10 ERA (.249 BABIP, 78.4 LOB%). The Diamondbacks have an 80 wRC+ and 9.1 HR/FB vs RHP, along with a 9.9 HR/FB at home, though their lineup has been in flux all season. Statcast Park Factors suggest the run environment is more positive with the roof closed in Arizona, as the team website states it will be tonight. Only Washington is a more positive run environment tonight, but the projected lineup for the Diamondbacks features four batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year, just one batter above a .317 wOBA against RHP (Ketel Marte) and nobody above a .153 ISO. In a great spot, DeSclafani may be tonight’s top pitcher. While no pitcher on FanDuel exceeds $8.7K on FanDuel, none of tonight’s starters are averaging six innings per start. DeSclafani comes closest though.

Anthony Desclafani doesn’t go very deep into games (averaging 22 batters faced), struggles against LHBs (.382 wOBA, .259 ISO) and has just an 18.8 K% over the last month. That’s the bad news. The upside is that his 10 SwStr% over the last month isn’t that far off his 10.7% mark this season (23.8 K%) and he gets a tremendous park upgrade against a lineup projected to start just two left-handed bats tonight, both below a .150 ISO vs RHP this year. In fact, none of the projected starters in tonight’s Miami lineup are above a .150 ISO vs RHP. As a team, the Marlins have a 77 wRC+, 25 K%, 6.6 BB% and 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP this year. DeSclafani’s upside is likely capped by workload limitations, but in potentially the best spot on the board, he still may provide plenty of value below $8K tonight.

The other side of this matchup is slightly interesting too. Sandy Alcantara is coming off his best start of the season in Atlanta (7 IP – 0 ER – 2 BB – 7 K) and has completed seven innings in three straight. He has just a 16.8 K%, but 11 SwStr% with an 86.7 mph aEV (.325 xwOBA). His price is $7K or less on either site against an offense with a 90 wRC+ and 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP.

The highest strikeout rate on the slate for the season and over the last month (not including openers) belongs to Antony DeSclafani, at just 24.7% and 26.8% tonight. While rostering him can be a concern in a power friendly park due to is great difficulties with LH power, the Nationals lack that to start off with and it got even worse yesterday when Juan Soto went down. Tonight’s projected lineup for the Nats features just three lefties and just one above a .154 ISO vs RHP this year. While DeSclafani has an ERA with estimators around four over the last month, he complements that with a .277 xwOBA via Statcast. RHBs have just a .261 wOBA and 22.7 K-BB% against him this year. DeSclafani is not cheap, but is only the fourth of fifth most expensive pitcher on either site with the betting line moving in his favor tonight.

Anthony DeSclafani has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts, against some pretty powerful offenses as well (Astros, Brewers, Cubs) and owns a solid 17.1 K-BB% vs RHP with most estimators meeting his 4.26 ERA (besides a 5.17 DRA). However, under the right conditions, DeSclafani can be a useful target for daily fantasy players hunting HRs. That’s because he’s allowed 12 to LHBs this year already, while they own a .407 wOBA against him over the last calendar year. He’s probably not that bad, but a .358 xwOBA, 46 Hard% and 31.2 GB% are still plenty good enough to play some left-handed power here. Kyle Schwarber (103 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Anthony Rizzo (163 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Jason Heyward (114 wRC+, .175 ISO) are all above average hitters expected to be in the lineup tonight. Conditions don’t appear to be as favorable as last night when the home offense disappointed, but weather isn’t expected to be a negative here either.

Anthony DeSclafani has been a perfectly league average pitcher by many metrics (4.17 ERA, 3.93 SIERA, 4.29 DRA, .322 xwOBA), but has a wide platoon split (LHBs .384 wOBA against him last calendar year) and is certainly a dangerous matchup against the Dodgers (119 wRC+, 9.2 K-BB%, 17 HR/FB vs RHP) at home. At exactly five implied runs, the Dodgers are still behind six teams on this full slate despite a large park upgrade that plays especially friendly to power hitters. This is just a tremendous spot for the three left-handed power hitters expected to be in the top half of the Dodger batting order tonight: Joc Pederson (154 wRC+, .374 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Max Muncy (162 wRC+, .301 ISO), and Cody Bellinger (169 wRC+, .287 ISO). All are at least $5K on DraftKings, but Pederson and Muncy are each only around $3K on FanDuel. Alex Verdugo (124 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Corey Seager (104 wRC+, .191 ISO) offer some more affordable exposure on DK.

Anthony DeSclafani is another pitcher who has seen a sizable jump in K% this year, he’s currently sitting on a 28.6%K rate which is well above the 21% mark for his career. DeSclafani has shown increased velocity on all his pitches in 2019, as he is throwing a much-improved curve that has a .187 xwOBA allowed and 43% Whiff rate. Desclafani has been much worse vs. LHB (.365 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .259 allowed vs. RHB since 2018) but the LHB he will face tonight (Joe Panik, Stephen Vogt, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Crawford Steven Duggar) aren’t much of a threat as none of them have an xwOBA > .330 vs. RHP since 2018. The Giants as a team have just an 83 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs. RHP this year. Pitching in spacious AT&T Park, the Giants have just a 3.33 implied line vs. DeSclafani. DeSclafani will also have the benefit of pitcher-friendly ump Ben May.