Archie Bradley Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Despite an insubstantial shift in results, Archie Bradley's 14.9 K-BB% is up over four points from his season rate, while his hard hit rate is down to a league average 30.8% (36.4% on the season) over the last month. He has the worst defense on the board tonight behind him leading to a .368 BABIP over the discussed span. A full strength Washington lineup is probably near average vs RHP (95 wRC+), but take out Harper and Murphy and Archie Bradley almost becomes interesting for around $6.5K on either site. Batters from either side have hit the ball hard over 35% of the time against him though, while LHBs have a .365 wOBA, Part of that can probably be attributed to a difficult home park, but probably not all of it. Trea Turner (141 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP career) is the top bat here, but costs an aggressive $5.6K on DraftKings without the normal fire power behind him. Stephen Drew (138 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP this season) has had a nice bounce back season off the bench for this club and costs less than $3K in the fifth spot today.

The Dodgers are projected for a slate high 5.6 runs tonight without another offense within half a run of them. LHBs have a .364 wOBA against Archie Bradley since last season and batters from either side have hit the ball hard over 37% of the time against him. This entire lineup projects strongly, even the returning Andre Ethier (146 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $2.3K on FanDuel. Corey Seager (164 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP career) might be the top overall bat on the slate. Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2015), might be an affordable contrarian way to gain exposure to this lineup, but is a potent bat in the eighth spot. Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Yasmani Grandal (117 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top bats at their positions.

Over the last couple of weeks, Archie Bradley has a respectable 3.32 SIERA, an elite 63% groundball rate, and a decent K-rate of 21%. Bradley has been much more susceptible to left-handed bats, so he will have to avoid making any mistakes to David Dahl and Carlos Gonzales. If he is able to mitigate the damage done by these two lefties, he should be able to lean on his stuff to hold down RHBs (Bradley has a 3.56 xFIP on the season vs. RHBs). It is worth noting that Car-Go has hit the ball hard in 71% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last week, leading us to believe that a home run off Bradley may be inevitable if Bradley cannot successfully pitch around the Rockies slugger. It is worth reiterating, the Rockies fade is more of a game theory strategy, founded on the hopes that Bradley’s success against RHBs will help him quell any Colorado rallies. The fact that Charlie Blackmon is not in the lineup should also boost the probability that Bradley will be able to limit the production by the Rockies.

Archie Bradley has had some decent outings recently that have boosted his season numbers a bit. Bradley has a high 26.2% strikeout rate against right-handed batters this season, but if we dig deeper, we'll find that he's faced a bottom-barrel strikeout offense in seven of his last 12 starts. His 7.7% SwStr% indicates that we should expect some serious regression to his strikeout rate in the near future. Even with the strikeout success he's had against right-handed batters, Bradley is still inducing below-average ground balls (41.0% GB%) and allowing a ton of hard contact to righties (34.5%). Bradley is striking out left-handed batters at a below-average rate (17.7%), while surrendering a massive 40.5% Hard%. This is a great spot for the Nationals lefties and even a full Nationals stacks. Daniel Murphy (169 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (125 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays that should be included in any Nationals stack. Danny Espinosa (.163 ISO vs RHP) can be considered as a tournament punt given his power upside and scarcity at the SS position.

The Brewers are certainly a stack candidate since Bradley (4.52 SIERA) tends to have some serious control issues (11.5% BB%) that could get him pulled from this game early. Bradley severely struggles with left-handed batters evidenced by a 40.2% Hard% allowed that accompanies a .382 wOBA and 4.91 xFIP. Unfortunately, there is not a lot that stands out from an individual matchup standpoint with the Milwaukee lefties, although, they can definitely be considered as a part of a Brewers stack. Bradley has a high 26.2% K% versus right-handed batters so it may not be the best idea target any Brewers righties outside of Ryan Braun (128 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP) and Jonathan Lucroy (133 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP) given they have the numbers and ability to take advantage of an average RHP. This game has one of the higher totals on the slate, but their isn't much to like from just a strict matchup perspective making the Brewers a stack or fade option in tournaments.

Both lefties and righties have a wOBA right around .330 against Archie Bradley since last season and also a hard hit rate above 36%. While the Reds have just an 80 wRC+ vs RHP and several automatic outs, there is also some potency in three of those bats that could do some damage tonight. Joey Votto (161 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is near the top of a great First Base crop tonight and still a good value at less than $5K on either site. He has a 307 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% since the break. Jay Bruce (108 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Adam Duvall (115 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP) now below $4K are fine OF options. Billy Hamilton (67 wRC+ vs RHP this season) moves into the leadoff spot and has at least been competent since the break (103 wRC+).

Archie Bradley has an impressive 23.6 K% and the Padres have just a 78 wRC+ with a 24.0 K% vs RHP and that's probably going to lead a lot of players towards him on a four game slate tonight and it's not a bad idea for $6.6K on FanDuel, but an $8.5K price tag on DraftKings will make you look at his flaws a little harder. Those include an 11.1 BB% and a hitter's park where he's allowed seven HRs in four starts this season. He did strike out nine Padres at home about a month ago, but has struck out five or fewer in four of his last five starts, going fewer than six innings three times. He is by no means a lock for a big performance tonight. In fact, LHBs have a .337 wOBA against him in his career (.387 this year), making Yangervis Solarte (116 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) a potentially great value, especially with Second Base eligibility, along with both other LHBs near the minimum price tonight (Dickerson and Schimpf). Solarte has a 279 wRC+ and 53.3 Hard% over the last week. RHB Wil Myers (124 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since last season) has a 272 wRC+ and 60.0 Hard%. He's likely to be a low owned, high cost alternative to Encarnacion or Goldschmidt against a pitcher who has allowed RHBs a .326 wOBA and 38.2 Hard% since last season.

Along with Dallas Keuchel, Archie Bradley is a top SP value option in the early slate today, especially considering his match up with a dreadful Phillies offense that is 28th in wOBA against RHP and 29th in runs scored. Odubel Herrera is the only bat in the lineup with a wOBA topping .340 and his price tag makes him not worth rostering. The Diamondbacks face Zach Eflin who comes in with a 5.66 SIERA and very unimpressive 8.7% K rate. Jake Lamb and Paul Goldschmidt are the top options for Arizona and Chris Herrmann is worth a look as a value option at catcher.

Arizona SP Archie Bradley had a subpar rookie season but has shown signs of life in his last two starts. He's one of the cheaper pitching options in the afternoon slate and provides good value against a Rays team that is 29th in K% against RHP this season. The other SP in the game, Jake Odorizzi, is better at home and has to face a decent Arizona lineup in their hitter friendly park - he's best avoided. From the Tampa offense, Taylor Motter is a good value option leading off at a low price point. Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, and Logan Morrison are also secondary options. The top four of the Arizona lineup (Segura, Lamb, Goldschmidt, Peralta) are good options with Goldschmidt and Lamb the best of that group. Chris Herrmann is also in play at catcher batting sixth.

Yangervis Solarte should be an unpopular 3B option who will be facing a pitcher who has been up and down between the big leagues and minor leagues. Archie Bradley has a career 5.32 xFIP against left-handed batters, the side of the plate from which Solarte excelled in 2015. Solarte finished 2015 with a 0.165 ISO when batting as a left-handed batter against RHP. He is batting 4th today and gets a substantial park upgrade, batting in the 5th best park for LHBs, Chase Field, opposed to his home park in San Diego.