Brad Keller Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

When we talk about high upside pitching spots on tonight’s board we have to start with the Detroit Tigers. They have an 87 wRC+ and 27.3 K% vs RHP this year and if you take a look at Plate IQ, you will notice the last six projected batters all exceeding a 27 K% vs RHP since last season. Brad Keller has been more of a near average pitcher since the calendar hit May (4.40 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 3.94 xFIP), but his exit velocity has actually increased since then (93.3 mph) and he’s still generating less than half his contact on the ground (47%). The biggest change is that his K-BB% increased 10 points from 2.1%. That’ll play in this spot, especially as an SP2 for $6.4K on DraftKings.

Adam Wainwright has just an 18.8 K% and 5.6 SwStr% since May started (seven starts). On a positive note, he’s been able to push deep into games due to 6.2 BB% and .266 BABIP. He has four starts with at least seven innings and six strikeouts. He may be more viable on FanDuel for $800 less than DraftKings in a home matchup against the Marlins (25.7 K% vs RHP) with four projected batters above a 30 K% vs RHP since last year. We’re going to mention Austin Gomber here because the Padres have just an 86 wRC+ and 10.2 HR/FB vs LHP and has struggled to an 81 wRC+ with a 32.1 K% over the last week. Three batters in the projected San Diego lineup exceed a 30 K% vs LHP since last season. Gomber isn’t making Colorado fans forget about Nolan Arenado, but he may be helping soften the blow. He walked 23 of 103 to start the season, but since then has walked just four of 179 batters, while striking out 26.8% with just an 87 mph EV. Over this span, he has a 2.58 ERA, 3.37 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. You’re certainly not playing him at Coors for $9.5K in this spot (FD), but maybe for just $7K.

The Cubs have a 26.2 K% vs LHP and David Peterson has a 25.5 K% and 51.9 GB%. He also has double digit walk (10.1%) and barrel (11.5%) rates in a game with the most weather concern on the slate. The Mariners (26 K%) go to Kenta Maeda, fresh off the IL with just a 20.5 K% and 90.5 mph EV through nine starts. His best season estimator is a 4.03 xFIP. Add in the contact profile and his xERA shoots up to 4.89, which is still lower than his 5.27 ERA (21.4 HR/FB, .336 ERA). If you think he’s healthy, he may be a steal for less than $7.5K. He could also continue to be a disaster. The Giants have a 26.9 K% vs RHP, but also a 100 wRC+ and 15.3 HR/FB, while Matt Peacock has struck out three with seven walks over his last two starts. While more than 60% of his contact has been on the ground, it’s with a 90 mph EV. He does cost just $5.3K on DraftKings if you absolutely need to punt. Lastly, the Brewers have an 83 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs RHP. Vladimir Gutierrez is within $100 of S7K on either site, but hasn’t done much to show us he’s worth even that, striking out just 13 of 71 batters with eight walks over three starts.

Some of the highest upside spots on the board tonight belong to Brad Keller (vs Twins), Frankie Montas (at Coors), Dallas Keuchel (vs Tigers), Kirk Gibson (vs Rays), Matt Peacock (at Brewers), Mitch Keller (vs Marlins) and Shohei Ohtani (vs Mariners). While few of these pitchers appear enticing, there are some interesting matchups in here. Covering the biggest name first, the first four Mariners in the projected order are below a 21 K% vs RHP since 2020, but the remaining five are all above 23%. Ohtani has some control issues (16.9%), to say the least, and has struck out just 10 of his last 44 batters. This highly volatile arm is probably only an option on DraftKings ($7.6K). Keuchel has earned every bit of his 4.53 ERA. In fact, his DRA and xERA are actually above six. He’s still generating a ton of weak ground balls (86.6 mph EV, 59.5 GB%), but he’s still allowed 21 Barrels (10.4%) with just eight of them leaving the yard. He’s struck out just 30 batters over 11 starts. He does cost less than $7K on DraftKings, but even against the Tigers (76 wRC+, 31.2 K% vs LHP), the ceiling appears limited. Montas costs $9.9K on DraftKings (nearly $3K cheaper on FanDuel) at Coors, but the Rockies have just a 68 wRC+ vs RHP.

Next on the list are two pitchers generating more than half their contact on the ground. Peacock has struck out just 13 of 65 batters, but hasn’t walked one with 59.6% of his contact on the ground over three starts. He throws his sinker over 70% of the time and has generated just a 7.3 SwStr% over 28 innings this year. He’s less than $7K too though, and the Brewers have a 76 wRC+ with a 26.3 K% vs RHP. Every batter in the projected lineup is above a 22 K% vs RHP since last season. As long as we’re clear that Gibson’s 2.24 ERA shouldn’t be sustainable (.234 BABIP, 6.0 HR/FB), we can agree he’s pitched well for the Rangers this year (20.1 K%, 11.8 SwStr%, 52.8 GB%, 88.7 mph EV) and has only allowed seven Barrels (4.1%), resulting in a 3.19 xERA. His SIERA, xFIP and DRA are a bit above four and he should have some value against a projected lineup that includes six batters exceeding a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020 at a cost within $400 of $8K on either site.

Lastly, we have the incredibly erratic Keller boys. Mitch’s performances and velocity have been all over the place and though he has struck out 20 of his last 68 batters, he’s done so with an 8.5 SwStr%. In fact, he’s had an above average SwStr% in just one start this year. He’s also recorded a sixth inning out in just one start. With just one-third of his contact on the ground and a 90.8 mph EV, it’s a surprise he hasn’t allowed more Barrels (8.5%) and has just an 11.5 HR/FB. All of his non-FIP estimators are above four and a half. Maybe the good version of Mitch shows up against a projected lineup with five batters above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020 and you only have to pay $5.6K DraftKings to find out. Brad started his season horribly, but has an ERA and estimators below four with a 24.6 K% (11.0 SwStr%) and 57 GB% over the last month. But also, he’s facing the Twins (105 wRC+, 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP), so why is he even on this list? Take a look at the projected Minnesota lineup in PlateIQ. What you’ll see are a lot of small samples due to injuries, but what you’ll also see are that the first two batters are below a 20 K% vs RHP since last season, but the remaining seven are all 25% or higher. While all of these arms may be SP2 GPP options due to their matchups, Brad Keller costs just $5.5K on DraftKings, has been pitching well and may have the sneakiest upside of them all.

Brad Keller is a low strikeout (16.3 K%), ground ball generator (49.8%), who struggles with walks (10.9%) and hard contact (89.6 mph aEV). Except, he hasn’t really been generating ground balls that often anymore (below 42% in three of his last four starts). While he’s allowed multiple HRs in two of his last three starts and hasn’t gone beyond five innings in any of them, somehow, his xwOBA is down to league average (.321) over the last month. The season mark sits at .348 though, 27 points above actual, while a 4.46 FIP is his only estimator below a 4.63 ERA. The Nationals have an 11.4 K-BB%, but 13.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. At 6.16 implied runs, the Nationals are expected to be the second most prolific offense on the board tonight. With a .339 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against him over the last 12 months, LHBs have a real advantage against Keller, making Adam Eaton (113 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who costs less than $4K on either site, and Juan Soto (150 wRC+, .238 ISO) a necessary part of any Washington exposure tonight.

Brad Keller has turned the lineup over three times in five straight starts, but brings just a 4.1 K-BB% into Minnesota, a team that dominates RHP (122 wRC+, 20 K%, 17.7 HR/FB) and has the highest wRC+ in the league (149) over the last week with a 38 Hard-Soft%. Despite a 92.2 Z-Contact% that’s worst on the board, what Keller does do is keep the ball on the ground (52.1%) and in the park (6.2 HR/FB), but that latter number is likely unsustainable, considering and 89.5 mph aEV that’s in the bottom quarter of the league. His 4.29 ERA is much lower than estimators around five, including a 5.06 DRA. His .322 xwOBA over the last month, is a bit ahead of his .348 mark on the season. The Twins are the only team outside Coors implied above six runs, which says a lot, but considering Keller’s tendency to keep the ball in the yard, this should be a stacking effort with the expectation of a big inning or two. Keller has been most vulnerable to LHBs, with splits separated by over 40 points by wOBA and xwOBA over the last calendar year. LHBs have also been able to generate a bit more air contact with a 48.9 GB% against him over that span. The Minnesota lineup projects five LHBs against Keller tonight. Max Kepler (118 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jorge Polanco (153 wRC+, .211 ISO), Eddie Rosario (106 wRC+, .239 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (99 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Jason Castro (149 wRC+, .353 ISO) represent a very strong group.

This is one instance where players should throw the negative west coast run environment right out the window. It’s Brad Keller (16.9 K%, 5.85 DRA, 5.51 SIERA, 90.6 mph aEV, .370 xwOBA) against Matt Harvey (15.7 K%, 6.42 DRA, 5.09 SIERA, 91 mph aEV, .379 xwOBA). While RHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Keller over the last calendar year, that’s not nearly enough to preclude Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in this strong matchup, and LHBs are up to a .352 xwOBA against him over the same time span. Tommy La Stella (138 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (168 wRC+, .317 ISO) are strong plays in the top half of this projected lineup. Over the same 12 months, Harvey has been ripped by LHBs to the tune of a .343 wOBA and xwOBA with a 46% hard hit rate. Adalberto Mondesi (111 wRC+, .220 ISO), Alex Gordon (109 wRC+, .185 ISO) and rookie Nicky Lopez (243 wRC+, .377 xwOBA last seven days) can be featured from the Kansas City projected lineup. Lopez costs just $3.3 on DraftKings ($2.6K on FanDuel).

The Tigers will face Brad Keller at home Sunday afternoon. Keller has a 5.14 xFIP and 5.47 SIERA on the year with a 3.9 K-BB% and just an 8% SwStr. For Keller’s career, he has been much more vulnerable vs. LHB with a .342 xwOBA allowed vs. just a .298 mark against RHB. Jeimer Candelario leads off for Detroit at just $3.6k on Draftkings, although he has just a 95 career wRC+, Keller’s soft tossing skill-set could pair well with Candelario’s swing and miss approach. Niko Goodrum is batting 4th and is another viable LHB, he is enjoying a breakout year with a .398 xwOBA. Although they will not have the platoon advantage, Nick Castellanos (.371 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) and Miguel Cabrera (.361) have shown the ability to mash RHP are are firmly in play with very affordable prices on both major sites. Harold Castro is a LHB that had a 137 wRC+ in AAA this year, he is another cheap option batting 6th for the Tigers this afternoon. Given the abundance of stack options on the slate today, Tiger hitters should come with pretty low ownership. The Tigers have a 4.46 implied line vs. Keller and the Royals Sunday.

The clear top pitcher on tonight's slate is incredibly expensive. Many players are going to look to pivot and DraftKings players need a much cheaper supplement. The problem is that those values may be hard to find. Miles Mikolas has been a consistent contact manager (85.5 mph aEV) with little strikeout upside (16.8 K%) and that upside gets even less against the Pirates (19.8 K% vs RHP), while he's allowed at least four runs in three of his last five starts. He's also gone beyond six innings in just one of his last four. Andrew Suarez (19.5 K%, 4.26 SIERA, .329 xwOBA) might be a viable option in a great park. He's gone at least six innings in four of his last five, but has also allowed five runs in two of those starts and the Braves have a 110 wRC+ with a 19.9 K% vs LHP. Tyler Glasnow was routed by the Blue Jays for seven runs in less than an inning in his last start and has an even tougher matchup with Cleveland tonight (105 wRC+, 19.1 K% vs RHP), but he's at least at home, still has a 26 K% over the last month and costs just $5.9K on FanDuel. Shane Bieber (19.9 K-BB%) is on the other side of that matchup for less than $9K with a substantial park upgrade. He's had tremendous issues with LHBs though (.395 wOBA, 51.5 Hard%). Joe Musgrove has a 26.7 K% and 3.00 SIERA (.301 xwOBA) over the last month. He's completed seven innings in eight of 17 starts and gets a slight park upgrade in St Louis (19.8 K-BB% last seven days). He's up to $9.1K on DraftKings, but still just $7.7K on FanDuel. Jose Urena (18.8 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .325 xwOBA) could be a moderately priced complement to his opponent in New York (84 wRC+, 9.1 HR/FB at home), but the Mets have been a much better team since the All-Star break. Sonny Gray has allowed just four runs over his last 19.2 innings, but that includes just one start. He did pitch into the seventh inning in that start without allowing a run in Baltimore. The Twins are a below average offense, but don't strike out a ton (21.6% vs RHP). DraftKings players might also consider Brad Keller in that SP2 spot. He has just a 16.2 K%, but keeps the ball on the ground (53.1%) and costs less than $6K in a spot with some upside (White Sox 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP).