Brandon Woodruff Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A large Monday night 11 game slate to start the last half week of the season includes a lot of things and not all of them good. There’s some weather, both pitcher friendly and potentially game washing. We have pitchers returning from injury and those just looking to get or stay on schedule for the post-season with few games that actually mean much. We should expect everyone to compete while they are out there, but might there be some more conservative pitch counts this week? We have five $10K pitchers tonight (four on each site) and another one exceeding $9K on either site. Let’s try to figure out which ones may excel and which aren’t even considerable.

As of Sunday, only one major league pitcher (Carlos Rodon) has more fWAR than Aaron Nola. He’s gone at least seven innings in 15 of his 31 starts with not only a 28.8 K%, but elite control (3.7 BB%), while allowing just a 31.7% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV). His biggest problem is something he can’t do anything about. The defense behind him is at -29 Runs Prevented, which is second worst in baseball by a single RP. As such, all estimators are more than half a run below his 3.36 ERA, but that defense isn’t going anywhere. The Phillies have not yet locked up the last wildcard and have a tough path through Houston (108 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs RHP), but with everything locked up, they have been frequently resting people. Nola projects just inside the top five and as a middling value, but this could be a bit light and make him a great GPP play if it lowers his ownership.

Nola carries the highest price tag on the board, but $100 less on FanDuel and most expensive on DraftKings, Brandon Woodruff has double digit strikeouts in four straight starts (30.6 K% on the year) and five straight Quality Starts with a total of five runs allowed over 33 innings. With just a 6.8 BB% and 7.1% Barrels/BBE, all of Woodruff’s estimators are within a quarter run of his 3.05 ERA, including a nearly matching 3.04 SIERA. The Brewers are the team chasing the Phillies, so you better believe this team is motivated in this spot. It may not affect their performance, but Woodruff won’t be coddled here. In a marginal spot against the Diamondbacks (97 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP), he projects as the top arm on the board and as the fourth best value on either site.

Third most expensive on either site, Lance McCullers Jr. has a 26 K%, but 12.1 BB% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.1%). All estimators are more than a run above his 2.38 ERA (85.8 LOB%), but the Astros are just looking to keep him healthy and on schedule, while perhaps working on throwing more strikes. He could get a full workload, but he could also get pulled relatively early. The Phillies also represent a difficult matchup (103 wRC+, 22.1, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP). He projects as just the eight best pitcher tonight and a bottom half of the board value in a spot where he may carry more risk than reward.

Costing $10.1K on DraftKings, but $1.5K less on FanDuel, Tonly Gonsolin spent all of September on the IL and faced just six minor league batters before the season ended. He’s certainly not up for anything even close to a full workload in this spot, projecting as one of the worst pitchers and values on the board tonight against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 22.4 K%).

Joe Musgrove is a pitcher of many strengths with an above average strikeout rate (24.7%), great control (5.6 BB%) and an attractive contact profile (86.6 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 33% 95+ mph EV), resulting in estimators ranging from a 3.24 DRA to a 3.65 FIP that are a bit above his 3.03 ERA. With over 70% of his barrels leaving the yard, his 12.9 HR/FB probably merits some regression though. Up until nearly the All-Star break Musgrove was a virtual lock for six innings, but he’s only accomplished that twice over his last seven starts. The Giants have a 99 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP, while the Padres will be on the road for their Wild Card series, but it has not yet been determined who they’ll face. Is it worth pushing Musgrove in order to travel to face the Mets rather than the Cardinals? Probably not, though he may get in a fully standard workload tonight. Assuming so projects him as the third best pitcher on either site and third best DK value (sixth best on FD).

Within $300 of $9.5K on either site, Luis Severino has struck out 10 of 35 batters since returning from the IL, but has thrown just 64 and 76 pitches in two outings. This is a mere tune up for the post-season. Severino does come into this start with an impressive 27.8 K% and a 3.41 that nearly matches his 3.42 SIERA and is in a favorable spot (Rangers 92 wRC+, 24.3 K%) in a great park if the roof remains closed. He projects as a top five arm and as either the fifth or sixth best value, but also carries significant workload risk, though with higher matchup upside than McCullers.

A large 12 game Wednesday night slate includes six $10K pitchers (three on FanDuel), but nobody else above $9K on both sites. Most expensively on the entire board, but $700 less on DraftKings, Justin Verlander was back above 90 pitches in just his second start back from the IL, but struck out just four of 22 Orioles. Without the two starts bookending his IL stint, he’d have 11 straight Quality Starts. With a 26.9 K% (22.6 K-BB%) on the season, estimators ranging from a 2.61 FIP to a 3.30 xFIP are well above his 1.82 ERA, but a .239 BABIP is only the third lowest mark of his career, while an 80.7 LOB% is his worst season in Houston. Eight of his 41 runs have been unearned too, but Verlander is just an outlier, maybe THE outlier. Roof open or closed, Houston is generally a negative run environment, while the Diamondbacks are a marginal matchup (96 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP), but continue to struggle late in the season (68 wRC+, 28.3 K% last seven days). Verlander is the second best projected pitcher on the slate, but just outside the top five projected values on either.

Most expensively on DraftKings ($200 more than Verlander) and $200 more on FanDuel ($300 less than Verlander), in each of his last three starts, Gerrit Cole has allowed multiple home runs, exactly four runs and struck out at least eight. He’s gone at least six innings with eight or more strikeouts in more than half of his starts, which is a mighty fine floor, but has also allowed 31 home runs on 42 barrels (9.3%). In another park, you might call for serious regression of a 16.8 HR/FB and the barrel rate looks a bit worse than it is because only about 60% of batters are making contact, but it’s probably a bit of a concern at this point. His 3.49 ERA matches a 3.48 FIP and aligns well with a 3.30 xERA. With a 26.0 K-BB% that’s more than fine, but the Yankees are paying him over $300 million and Yankee fans aren’t often known for their patience. He’s in a pretty awful spot in Toronto tonight (116 wRC+, 20.3 K% vs RHP, 115 wRC+, 13.4 HR/FB at home) and considering that he doesn’t really have much of a split doesn’t make it any easier. Cole currently registers as the fourth best projected pitcher (though that could change after pitch count adjustments to a pitcher or two ahead of him), but just as a middle of the board value on either site.

Third most expensive on both sites, Brandon Woodruff is looking to single-handedly pitch the Brewers into the playoffs with double digit strikeouts in three consecutive starts (30.1% on the year). With a 23.1 K-BB%, his 3.18 ERA aligns within one-tenth of a run of all estimators except for a 2.91 DRA. He faces the Cardinals (109 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP) in a park that plays hitter friendly with the roof open, but it’s been cooler in Milwaukee this week with the roof closed yesterday, which makes it a more pitcher friendly environment. The Cardinals also clinched the division last night and could be short a few bats tonight. Woodruff currently projects barely behind Cole, which makes him a slightly better value, but keep an eye out for the confirmed St Louis lineup later.

Eight games on an earlier starting Thursday night slate that includes a startling six $10K pitchers (just two on DK). That’s 37.5% of the board. The most expensive arm on either site, Justin Verlander has struck out 25 of his last 48 batters with the small issue of an IL trip in between. With that, he’s up to a healthy 27.2 K% with just a 4.5 BB%, 19.8 IFFB% and 34.9% 95+ mph EV. He threw 79 pitches in his return and having already clinched the division, but still playing for something, we can’t be sure how far the Astros will push him here or in last couple starts. All four of Verlander’s pitches grade better than -0.5 RV/100 via Statcast. He’s in a decent spot in Baltimore (100 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP), projecting as the second best pitcher on the slate, but merely as a middling value. A full go Verlander could pass this though.

Second most expensive on either site and the only other pitcher exceeding $10K on both, remember back in April when the baseball world was freaking out about Shane Bieber’s velocity? He has 10 straight Quality Starts with estimators around two and a half over that span, recording seventh inning outs in all but one, and a 30.3 K% (15.5 SwStr%) over his last five starts. He’s up to a 20.8 K-BB% on the season and while all estimators exceed his 2.83 ERA, only his xERA (3.47) does so by more than half a run with a 90 mph EV. One point to watch is that since the break, the White Sox have been above average against all three of Bieber’s best pitches (slider, cutter, curveball). While they have a 95 wRC+, 5.9 BB% and 9.2 HR/FB vs RHP, they don’t strike out very much (20.8%). Bieber is essentially tied for the third best projection on DraftKings, but has that alone on FanDuel. He, too, projects as a middling value though.

Max Fried strikes out batters at an above average rate (23.2%), but the real keys to his game are weak ground balls (86.3 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 32.4% 95+ mph EV, 51.1 GB%) and control (4.5 BB%). He’s allowed more than three runs only twice since his first start of the season, but his 2.52 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 2.79 FIP to a 3.35 SIERA. All five of his pitches grade better than -0.5 RV/100 via Statcast. Tough matchup (Phillies 117 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 12.6 HR/FB vs LHP) in a tough park (Phillies 14.0 HR/FB at home) with more than a $2K discrepancy in price between sites. Fried projects in an essential tie for fifth best on either site (though with different pitchers), but as a much better value (fifth best) on DraftKings for just $8.3K.

Brandon Woodruff has four Quality Starts in his last five, all of them with two runs or less and three of them with double digit strikeouts. Up to a 29.3 K% (22.4 K-BB%) with a 79.7 Z-Contact%, his 3.26 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. He has a great matchup (Reds 84 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP) in an awful park, but still projects as the top arm on the board and as a top two value on either site (best on DraftKings).

Within $300 of $10K on either site, Julio Urias has allowed two earned runs or less in 11 straight starts (10 Quality Starts). Although his 2.27 ERA is well more than a run below most estimators, it aligns within half a run of a 2.71 xERA, supported by a strong contact profile (86.6 mph EV, 29.8% 95+ mph EV), alongside his 18.5 K-BB%. The Arizona offense still struggles against LHP (83 wRC+, 23.2 K%), but Urias has to be ultra-efficient to pitch deep into games. He is tied for the third best projected DraftKings arm, but also tied for the fifth best FanDuel projection and is a slightly better projected value on the former, though not much better than a middle of the board value on either.

Zac Gallen’s scoreless inning streak was snapped at Coors two starts back, despite 11 strikeouts, and the Padres snapped a seven game consecutive Quality Start streak last time out. On the season, he bears a very healthy 19.4 K-BB% and while his 2.52 ERA is half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.03 FIP and DRA to a 3.41 SIERA and xFIP, Gallen has the best defense in baseball behind him (35 Runs Prevented). His .237 BABIP is still well below what his defense allows (.284). All four of his pitches grade better than -0.5 RV/100 via Statcast. Against the Dodgers (123 wRC+, 21.4 K%), he projects in a tie for the seventh best on the board, but is a bottom half projected value on either site.

A 13 game Friday night slate includes four $10K pitchers on FanDuel (just one on DraftKings) with one more reaching $9K on both sites. Brandon Woodruff seemed to have hit his stride immediately upon returning from the IL, striking out 27 of 65 batters faced with just three walks (all in his last start). That bumps his season rate up to 31.9% (25.5 K-BB%) with just a 77.4 Z-Contact% (86% is average). All estimators are at least a run below his 4.01 ERA (67.0 LOB%). The most expensive DraftKings arm ($10.2K) is only fourth most expensive on FanDuel ($10K) in a marginal matchup (Giants 102 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs RHP). Woodruff is the second best projected pitcher on the board and a top four projected value on either site. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the top projected arm and one of the best projected values on the slate, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

We start the week off with a peculiar either nine of 11 game slate with a majority of west coast games (five). Carlos Rodon is the only pitcher on the board to reach the $10K price point on both sites and is an extremely expensive $11.1K on FanDuel. Rodon struck out fewer than eight for the first time this season last time out, but still published a quality start on the road against the Dodgers. Even with just three against the Dodgers, the strikeout rate still soars above the board at 36.9% (14.2 SwStr%). He has allowed just three barrels (5.1%) with the worst of his estimators still well below three (2.72 xFIP). The Rockies own a 125 wRC+ with just a 17.2 K% vs LHP this year, but only a 64 team wRC+ over the last seven days overall. Rodon currently owns the top point total projections on FanDuel by a decent margin and also on DraftKings by a smaller margin. Remember that PlateIQ projections are updated and remain fluid throughout the day, though we shouldn’t expect anyone to pass up Rodon tonight. This, of course, is expected to make him immensely popular as well. Does the small sample success of the Rockies against LHP this year give us enough of a reason to come in under-weight on him?

MacKenzie Gore is the only other pitcher on the board to reach $10K on either site. He does this on FanDuel, but even his DraftKings price ($9.7K) seems a bit high. Four starts into his career, Gore looks like the real deal with a 25.9 K% and all estimators below four. However, pry a bit deeper and you’ll find an 8.8 SwStr%, 10.6 BB% and 90.4 mph EV. Furthermore, 17 of his 22 strikeouts have come against Cincinnati. We shouldn’t be sold yet. However, he has hit the 100 pitch mark in each of his last two starts, so there are no workload concerns and the Cubs have a 22 K% vs LHP, while Gore is a top three projected arm on Fanduel and top five on DraftKings. With ownership projections currently around 10%, he could be worth a shot in some GPP lineups.

Michael Kopech is the only other pitcher on the board to reach $9K on both sites, though Brandon Woodruff would do so if he were available on FanDuel. Kopech has an above average 25.3 K% through five starts, but, like Gore, there are some concerning numbers below the surface. He’s had a swinging strike rate below eight percent in three of his five starts and owns a double digit walk rate (12.1%). He hasn’t hurt himself with just three barrels allowed (5.4%), but none have left the yard. Contact neutral estimators hover around four, nearly three runs above his 1.17 ERA. He may be a bit over-valued against a Cleveland offense that’s been very good against RHP (130 wRC+, 18.7 K%). Kopech is projected just outside the top three on FanDuel and just outside the top five on DraftKings. Again, like Gore, the allure here might be the lower ownership projections, despite the flaws.

Since striking out just four of his first 41 batters with as many walks, Woodruff has struck out 27 of his last 63 with a 16.1 SwStr% and just four walks. That has him up to a 22.1 K-BB% over five starts with his worst estimator (3.30 xFIP) still nearly two runs below his 5.18 ERA (60.3 LOB%). Woodruff is currently just the fourth best projected pitcher on DraftKings and if his current ownership projection remains true, he’s expected to be in about one-quarter of lineups. That could make him a great GPP play in Cincinnati (76 wRC+, 26.4 K% vs RHP).

Woodruff is currently the top projected pitcher on the board and is tied for the top point per dollar projection on DraftKings. The unfortunate part of that is that it’s very likely going to shoot his ownership up in a cozy little matchup against the ailing Reds (57 wRC+ on the road, 71 wRC+ vs RHP). However, outside his first start against Pittsburgh (his third of the year), Woodruff has scuffled this year. Even including those results, he owns just a 22.9 K% (13.3 K-BB%) with the contact profile doing most of the heavy lifting (5.6% Barrels/BBE, 86.8 mph EV). He’s throwing a ton of first pitch strikes (72.3%) with the same rate of chasing as last year (34.7%), but the Zone rate is down (41.3%). There almost seems enough ammunition to consider a fading (or at least coming in underweight) in this spot, but the juicy matchup makes it so difficult. For more on top of the board arms, including which one might go under-owned tonight, check out Tuesday's PlateIQ Live Blog.

Despite the small six game slate, three pitchers (25%) reach the $10K point on at least one site with Brandon Woodruff the only pitcher doing so on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Woodruff has been on fire, rolling off eight straight starts with two runs or less. The 1.58 ERA is a bit unsustainable (.195 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%, 7.5 HR/FB), but with a 30.5 K%, 6.6 BB% and just 4.6% Barrels/BBE, his worst estimator is a 3.16 SIERA. The biggest constraint to rostering Woodruff is the matchup. The Padres are the hottest team in the National League (145 wRC+ last seven days) and have just a 20.1 K% (10.6 BB%) against RHP this year.

John Means has been exceptional in his road efforts, allowing just three total runs and two home runs over six starts away from Baltimore, where a 29.9 GB% has been less of an issue in some of the more pitcher friendly parks he’s pitched in. He’s allowed 14 Barrels (9.7%), despite just an 86.4 mph EV. The .188 BABIP and 96.5 LOB% are completely unsustainable, but his 15 SwStr% is tops on the slate tonight. Estimators are mostly hovering around the mid-threes. Again, the issue here is the matchup. The Twins have a 110 wRC+ and 16.4 HR/FB vs LHP. Means is more viable for $9.1K on FanDuel.

Lance Lynn reached the six inning threshold for the first time in four starts back from the IL last time out, but struck out just two Twins with as many solo home runs allowed. A .231 BABIP, 87.2 LOB% and 7.8 HR/FB are responsible for estimators much higher than his 1.55 ERA. All are still below four, but some (3.96 xFIP), not by much. He’s been above 100 pitches in each of his last two starts, but it hasn’t gotten him as far as usual. He may have a little something extra in the tank for the Cardinals, but without an expectation of more than six innings, his value drops a bit. The good news is that he has the best matchup from a run prevention standpoint. The Cardinals have just an 89 wRC+ vs RHP, but also a very marginal 23.1 K%. While there’s nothing wrong with any of these three arms, tonight might be a slate where players consider paying down for pitching with additional pitchers in high upside spots.

Good or even great pitching is fairly easy to find on Opening Day, but finding it affordably is more of a prize and that’s exactly what we’re likely getting from both sides in Milwaukee on Thursday. Though it’s one of the few environments protected from the early April weather, it’s only a neutral run environment with the roof closed and there are a lot of things to like about this pitching matchup. Both Kenta Maeda and Brandon Woodruff are coming off Cy Young worthy seasons. Each exceeded a 30% strikeout rate with ERAs and estimators right around three. Both were excellent contact managers as well, Woodruff with an 86.7 mph EV and 17.2 IFFB% and Maeda with an 85.3 mph EV. Both had a 49% ground ball rate as well. Each pitcher will have a top defense behind them as well. The Brewers added three Gold Glove caliber defenders since the end of last season (Cain, Bradley, Wong) and the Twins were tied for third with seven Runs Prevented, according to Statcast. Both lineups lean more right-handed against pitchers who have dominated RHBs (Maeda below a .230 wOBA & xwOBA, Woodruff exactly a .250 wOBA & xwOBA since 2019). In addition, an NL park means the Twins loose the DH, which very likely means Nelson Cruz. Christian Yelich (160 wRC+, .314 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is really the only dangerous LH bat in either lineup. In fact, projected lineups for the game include nine batters above a 25 K% vs RHP last season. Lastly, let’s get back to that affordable part again. Neither pitcher reaches $9.5K on FanDuel on a main slate where four pitchers are $10K or more. On DraftKings, both are below $8.5K with six pitchers more expensive than either.