Brayan Bello Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Brayan Bello failed to impress in his major league debut (also against the Rays), striking out just two of 21 batters with three walks and four runs allowed, although half his contact was on the ground with an 85.9 mph EV. He is the fourth ranked Boston prospect by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade and also the 52nd ranked prospect in all of baseball. After producing a 23.3 K-BB% at AA this season, his stop off at AAA lasted just 51.1 innings (24.4 K-BB%), though the walk rate has been increasing at each level. With 44.4% of his AAA plate appearances being of the non-contact variety, we might have some workload concerns. He’s only improved his stock since a March scouting report heralded his increasing velocity, but also suggested an eventual high leverage reliever role for him, despite a three pitch mix that included a potentially above average slider and changeup. More recent looks suggest a long term rotation role. His low price tag ($6K or less), park upgrade and high upside matchup (Rays 98 wRC+, 24.9 K% vs RHP) makes him the top projected value on either site tonight, though a much tougher roster on a single pitcher site.

The second best projected value on either site is also a difficult roster on a single pitcher one. Despite striking out 11 of the 23 batters he faced over seven innings in his last AAA starts, Spencer Howard returned to the majors to strike out just two of 19 Orioles with as many walks, being pulled after just 68 pitches and four innings. Perhaps two full trips through the order is improvement in his case, but the production really isn’t. He has struck out 14 of 51 batters with four walks, but six of 13 fly balls and five barrels (15.2%) have left the yard, though four were in his first start in Toronto. A matchup against Oakland (70 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) for less than $6K is great, but who knows what kind of leash he’ll have here?

Alex Cobb is really the only pitcher costing less than Scherzer, who projects as a better value that you’d actually consider using on a single pitcher site, but even he has hit a bit of a wall recently. While Cobb has a 2.79 ERA over his last four starts, he’s only struck out 12 of 81 batters (7.6 SwStr%) over that span. It’s ironic that his ERA is dropping as his estimators are rising. Yet, with a 17.6 K-BB%, 63 GB%, 24.0 Z-O-Swing%, 87.4 mph EV and 4.2% Barrels/BBE, there’s still more than a run and a half gap between his 4.74 ERA and his worst estimator (3.16 DRA). Workload is also a concern, but he completed six innings in his last start and the Diamondbacks own a mere 91 wRC+ and 23.2 K% vs RHP. For $1.2K less, Cobb is also a fine SP2 choice on DraftKings.

Adrian Martinez has struck out just 11 of the 66 batters he’s faced with six barrels (11.8%) and just a 35.3 GB%. On a positive note, he’s walked just two and did have a 26.4 K% over 64 AAA innings this year. He costs less than $7K in Texas (92 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), but again, we’re talking about another SP2 type. The general gist here is that although your highest priced arms are in difficult spots, you’re still probably paying up for them because there really isn’t much of a middle of the board tonight and the lower priced arms are more SP2 complements than stand on their own types.

The most interesting thing we find when filtering pitching in LineupHQ for P/$ tonight (and this may eventually be adjusted) is Brayan Bello at the top of the board. For sure, the two most extreme factors determining this are extremely low cost and Tampa Bay’s 25 K% vs RHP. Fenway is a tough park to pitch in with a potentially hitter friendly umpire, but at least weather conditions don’t appear to be significantly unfavorable to the debuting rookie tonight. Bello is the fourth ranked Boston prospect by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade and also the 52nd ranked prospect in all of baseball. After producing a 23.3 K-BB% at AA this season, his stop off at AAA lasted just 51.1 innings (24.4 K-BB%), though the walk rate has been increasing at each level. With 44.4% of his AAA plate appearances being of the non-contact variety, we might have some workload concerns. He’s only improved his stock since a March scouting report heralded his increasing velocity, but also suggested an eventual high leverage reliever role for him, despite a three pitch mix that included a potentially above average slider and changeup.

The next best projected value for less than $9K on FanDuel is Alex Cobb and right behind him Mitch White. Covering them both together makes some sense because while both have favorable matchups, the concern is workload, since Quality Starts mean more on FD. Guess who hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last 9.1 innings? That would be Alex Cobb. He of the estimators still a run and a half or more below his 4.59 ERA. The troubling thing is that he has just a 16.4 K% and 7.2 SwStr% over this span. Without any significant changes to his pitches or usage, let’s hope this is a small sample thing. The great news is that his 18.8 K-BB%, 61.8 GB%, 87.1 mph EV and 2.3% Barrels/BBE are All-Star quality stuff, but he’s also only completed six innings twice this season. With a couple of trips to the IL already, the concern is that the Giants may be a bit more cautious with him going forward. Estimators range from a 2.52 ERA to a 3.16 DRA. The Diamondbacks have a 90 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP though, so perhaps he can be efficient enough to get through six innings on 90 pitches.

The Dodgers seem to want to cap White at 80 innings, so while the rate stats have been fine this year (15.2 K-BB%), the limited workload increases the risk/reward ratio of a 9.6% barrel rate and 90.2 mph EV. Only a 4.05 DRA is more than one-tenth of a run removed from his 3.93 ERA. He’s going to have to be extremely efficient to get through six innings, even against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 21.3 K% vs RHP) on that pitch count. Both Cobb and White are cheap enough where they can pay off their DK prices within five to six innings.

The fifth best projected DraftKings value is Josiah Gray at $8.2K. He has struck out at least six in four of his last five parts, but was lit up for six runs by the Marlins last time out. Just as he did last year, Gray has struck out more batters than average (25.4%), but also walked more than average too (10.1%). The home run ball was a big issue last season and he’s still allowing 11.5% Barrels/BBE on the season, but just five (5.3%) over his last six starts. That’s improvement. Most estimators are now closer to four than five. Non-FIP estimators are all within one-fifth of a run of his 4.22 ERA. Perhaps the hitter friendly environment in Philadelphia could be neutralized by the pitcher friendly umpire, absence of Bryce Harper and fairly neutral weather. The Phillies have been merely average against RHP (101 wRC+, 21.9 K%) and most of that is with Harper in the lineup. Gray is certainly worth a GPP flier or two tonight.

If you really need to punt our SP2 spot on DraftKings tonight, Spenser Watkins looks like a slightly different pitcher since returning to the Baltimore rotation and costs the minimum. He has allowed two runs (one earned) over 11 innings, striking out 9 of 41 batters, while walking just two. He’s also done this with his first two double digit SwStr% starts of the season, despite a velocity decrease. Watkins has increased cutter usage to 36.7% (35.3 Whiff% this year). We’re still talking about a pitcher with a 5.0 K-BB% and 10.7% Barrels/BBE over 95.2 career innings, so utilize caution. He did allow two of those barrels last time out as well, but it wouldn’t hurt to get out ahead of any potential changes in a few GPP lineups, just in case this is real.