Carson Fulmer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Rangers at White Sox features two of the worst pitchers on the board. Both Matt Moore and Carson Fulmer reach a .400 xwOBA and 90+ mph aEV this season. The problem is offense, or lack of it in these lineups, with both teams carrying an implied run line between 4.6 and 4.9 runs. The Rangers have dropped their best hitter, Joey Gallo (115 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) to the sixth spot due to a -19 wRC+ over the last week. Nobody else in the lineup combines a 100+ wRC+ with an ISO above .200 against RHP over the last 365 days. Shin-soo Choo (107 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (93 wRC+, .215 ISO) come closest. On the other hand, the White Sox do have some talent in the top half of the order against LHP: Tim Anerson (129 wRC+, .217 ISO), Jose Abreu (154 wRC+, .263 ISO), Matt Davidson (122 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Welington Castillo (130 wRC+, .213). Matt Moore actually has a severe reverse split (LHBs .449 wOBA), but has been bad against RHBs too (.341 wOBA), which may give Nick Delmonico (117 wRC+, .174 ISO) significant value for $3K or less.

Carson Fulmer is the late replacement for Miguel Gonzalez and that may be bad news for the Mariners only because he's only thrown 2.1 innings since April 10th. LHBs have a .362 career wOBA against him because of an 18.2 BB%. Though he doesn't generate a lot of ground balls, contact management hasn't been that bad (LHBs just a 26.5 Hard%). It's just with all those runners on base, bad things are bound to happen. Tonight, he faces a Seattle lineup without a single batter below a 100 wRC+ since last season with the entire middle of the order (three through six along with Mike Zunino) above a .190 ISO vs RHP. While walks aren't generally what daily fantasy players are looking for, many of them are likely to turn into runs scored with a 4.9 implied run line for Seattle.

Andrew Triggs has a career 20.8 K% and 10.2 SwStr% to go along with a 51.1 GB% in 137.1 major league innings. That's an above average pitcher. He's increased both the strikeout rate (25.7%) and ground ball rate (58.1%) through three starts this season, but both his swinging strike rate (9.4%) and hard hit rate (37.2%) are not as strong. He faces a White Sox lineup with a 102 wRC+ and 14.6 HR/FB against RHP, but they were expected to be bad and have been overall in the last seven days (52 wRC+, 32.4 K%). Triggs is certainly an option at $8.5K or less on either site, but beware that he has yet to complete six innings yet and has faced exactly 22 batters in each start with a high of 96 pitches. Yoan Moncada (124 wRC+, .374 xwOBA, .216 ISO, 44.7 Hard% vs RHP career) might be the lone bat of interest here for just $3.6K on DraftKings. The A's tie for the top implied run line on the early slate, just above five. Carson Fulmer's issues stem from an inability to throw strikes, rather than hard contact though. He walked six last time out and has a 13.4 BB% in 44.2 major league innings. While his hard hit rate has been exactly 40% in each of this year's two starts, it's at 27.5% for his career. While RHBs have a .250 wOBA against him in his small sample of a career, the xwOBA is 118 points higher, essentially giving him no split at all by that metric. A 36.4 GB% has been closer to average in the minors. While the A's have five batters in the projected lineup all with a 125 or better wRC+ and .190+ ISO vs RHP since last season (Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Matt Joyce), it's been Davis (247 wRC+, 50 Hard%), Lowrie (246 wRC+, 43.5 Hard%), Chapman (168 wRC+, 47.1 Hard%) and Stephen Piscotty (226 wRC+, 45 Hard%) along with Mark Canha (191 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%) who have all been smoking baseballs over the last week. They have a team 157 wRC+ over the last week (18.5 HR/FB). Lineups for this game have not yet been confirmed.

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 5.24 implied run line that's nearly half a run better than any other team on the five game slate. Just a year removed from being rated a back-end top 100 prospect by Fangraphs, Fulmer had a disastrous 2017 AAA campaign and short cup of coffee in the majors, exceeding a 5.9 K-BB% at neither stop. However, holding batters from either side to a hard contact rate below 30% has also allowed him to generate a league average .320 wOBA with no platoon split over 35 career major league innings. It's been his failure to find the strike zone and the occasional HR (six) with a 34 GB% that has done him in, though he's consistently run ground ball rates closer to league average in the minors. Players are going to want some Toronto exposure, but if Fulmer can find the plate, there may be some merit to fading the top projected offense tonight in a few lineups. The top/middle of the order with Josh Donaldson (143 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since last season), Justin Smoak (128 wRC+, .274 ISO) and the much more affordable Curtis Granderson (113 wRC+, .250 ISO) are the more obvious key bats here. Considering the lack of platoon split so far, Randall Grichuk (96 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Russell Martin (110 wRC+, .182 ISO) are inexpensive methods of exposure as well.

Half of the teams on a nine game slate have an implied run line between 4.6 and 5.65 runs with the Houston Astros (5.65) leading the Minnesota Twins (5.27) by a substantial margin at the top of the board. The Astros didn't particularly dominate James Shields last night and have a less enticing matchup against rookie Carson Fulmer, just by the reasoning that few pitchers can give up the long-ball like Shields. Fulmer made his first career start in August and was bombed, but the rest of his appearances in September haven't been bad (16.2 IP - 3 ER - 2 HR - 6 BB - 17 K - 66 BF - 10.9 SwStr% - 19.1 Hard% - 19.5 GB%). The ground ball rate would be the most alarming there. Fulmer is a decently thought of prospect (#6 in the organization, 50 FV grade via Fangraphs), but struggled to a 5.4 K-BB% at AAA this year with 18 HRs in 126 innings. The fact is that there's little information in and some of it is conflicting. If the Astros are going to be over-owned here, there is some merit to fading them, though they're generally running out six guys with a 120+ wRC+ and .190+ ISO vs RHP with Alex Bregman (104 wRC+, .171 ISO) not too far behind that. The Cardinals are third on the board with a 5.17 implied run line against Homer Bailey, who is coming off his best start of the season (5.2 IP - 1 ER - 7 K), but has had an otherwise miserable season and is pitching in a power friendly park under humid conditions (see Kevin's early forecast). Tommy Pham (202 wRC+, 40 Hard%), Dexter Fowler (329 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%) and Matt Carpenter (159 wRC+, 36.4 Hard%) have all been torching the ball over the last week and all are above a 130 wRC+ and 190 ISO vs RHP this year.

The Baltimore Orioles top the slate with an implied run line of 6.04 tonight. Chris Smith is their target at home, where they have a team 16.4 HR/FB this year. Smith is allowing a slate high 10.6% Barrels/BBE this year with just a 37.4 GB%. Unfortunately for him, RHBs (.316 wOBA, 44.9 GB%, 33.9 Hard%) have caused more problems than LHBs (.283 wOBA, 33.3 GB%, 32.1 Hard%) since last season, including eight of the nine HRs he's surrendered this year. The red hot Manny Machado (103 wRC, .214 ISO vs RHP this year, 219 wRC+, 53.9 Hard% over the last week) is one of tonight's top projected batters, while Tim Beckham (118 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) may be the top SS on the slate. Chris Davis, Seth Smith, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones and Welington Castillo all have a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .185 against RHP this year with Mancini (137 wRC+, .265 ISO leading the offense in both categories. The Minnesota Twins (5.23) are the only other team projected to eclipse five runs tonight, in the second game of their double-header against rookie and former first round pick Carson Fulmer, making his first major league start, though the Cleveland Indians are right on the cusp (4.99) against a fairly decent left-handed pitcher (Eduardo Rodriguez)