Corey Kluber Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Considering that the top of the board has lots of question marks, it would certainly be reasonable for players to consider dropping down for their pitching needs tonight. The first thing that jumps out is that PlateIQ projections currently have Corey Kluber and Ranger Suarez as top three overall pitchers on FanDuel and top four on DraftKings. The latter is projected to be very popular on DK for $8K, but they both otherwise project for five percent ownership or less. Kluber has effectively struck out nine of 39 batters and while he walked four in his first start, he didn’t walk any last time out. One of his two barrels (7.7%) has left the yard. He actually threw fewer pitches in his second start (75) than in his first (87). He’s shown some glimpses, but has been the pitcher he was in Cleveland since leaving that team. The Red Sox have just an 84 wRC+ and 22.4 K% vs RHP so far and Tampa Bay is a pitcher’s park.

Especially compared to last season, Suarez’s first two efforts of 2022 have been a disappointment. He’s walked four of 38 with just six strikeouts (5.7 SwStr%). Only one of his three barrels (10.3%) has left the yard with the contact profile being otherwise favorable (86.4 mph EV, 64.3 GB%). The whiff rate on his changeup (20%) has been cut in half, but he’s only thrown 30 so far. The Brewers have an early 50 wRC+ vs LHP and if Suarez turns back into last year’s version, he would be a bargain. In fact, he’s the third best projected value on FanDuel, behind two lower priced rookie pitchers who have really struggled thus far.

Bailey Ober opened eyes with a 20.3 K-BB% over 20 major league starts last season, although he did allow 20 home runs in just 92.1 innings. While he’s allowed just one over his first 11 this season, that comes with just seven strikeouts (15.9%), a 17.6 GB% and 92 mph EV. He’s been extremely fortunate that just one of his six barrels (17.6%) has left the yard. The good news is that a 14.8 SwStr% suggests or even demands a spike in his early season strikeout rate. He’s an upside arm against a White Sox lineup with just a 61 wRC+ vs RHP so far, but is projected to be the third most popular pitcher on FanDuel right now. Michael Wacha has allowed just a single run over 9.1 innings for the Red Sox, while striking out nine of 35 with four walks and a single barrel allowed (4.8%). The only appeal here is a pitcher’s park and a ton of strikeouts in the Tampa Bay lineup. Tarik Skubal struggled in his first start, but struck out seven of 22 Royals without a walk last time out and still hasn’t allowed a home run (35 last year). He has, however, allowed three barrels (9.7%) with an average 91 mph EV. Skubal has also generated 51.6% of his contact on the ground so far, as it seems he’s throwing his sinker a bit more, but it’s only a five point increase (17.8%) through two starts. His largest problem is not opposition (Rockies), but a potential weather interruption.

Today is the best day of the post-season for MLB DFS, as it's the only day players are guaranteed four games. It's not surprising that it's a pitcher friendly slate (no team above 4.5 implied runs), but not a single pitcher exceeds $10K on DraftKings, though three are above $10K on FanDuel. Both Corey Kluber (35.3 K%, 2.56 SIERA, .262 xwOBA last 30 days) and Justin Verlander (41.7 K%, 1.92 SIERA, .209 xwOBA last 30 days) finished the season with a flourish and are pitching in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. The case against them is that both the Astros (19.2%) and Indians (18.8%) have two of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against RHP. Chris Sale (38.4 K%, 2.27 SIERA, .240 xwOBA this season) is the other high priced pitcher today and he comes with some concerns, mostly a significant velocity drop in his last start, though he did reach 92 pitches, his most since returning from the DL. He also has to contend with the Yankees (115 wRC+, 18.4 HR/FB vs LHP) in the most positive run environment on the board, though temperatures are expected to be in the 50s with the Yankees implied for just 3.2 runs. All of these factors combine to make Sale an interesting GPP option. J.A. Happ (26.3 K%, 3.64 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) will be receiving the same weather neutralizing benefit and costs less against an offense less potent against LHP (92 wRC+) and respectably struck out 13 of 49 Red Sox, allowing four ERs in 12 IP as a Yankee. Clayton Kershaw (23.9 K%, 3.45 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) faces a contact prone Atlanta offense (107 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs LHP), though they were shut down by another southpaw last night. While Anibal Sanchez (24.4 K%, 3.85 SIERA, .285 xwOBA) and Tyler Anderson (22.3 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .308 xwOBA) are both fine pitchers at a lower cost, both are facing difficult offenses (Dodgers 116 wRC+ vs RHP, Brewers 15.8 HR/FB vs LHP) with potentially quicker hooks as their teams each trail in their series. Jhoulys Chacin (19.6 K%, 4.59 SIERA, .331 xwOBA) is the worst pitcher on the board by most metrics, but also someone players may want to look at in their SP2 spot on DraftKings ($5.2K). He pitched great in Chicago and the Rockies struggle against RHP (82 wRC+) and on the road (78 wRC+). Additionally, the Milwaukee bullpen was worn out last night, while owning the lead in the series may give him a bit longer leash.

Monday's MLB slate boasts three pitchers above $10K on both sites with one more reaching that mark only on DraftKings. At this point in the season, DFS players need to examine the motivations of certain teams, particularly those who are already locked into a specific post-season slot. That is certainly the cast for Cleveland with Corey Kluber (25.9 K%, 3.26 SIERA, .295 xwOBA) on the mound against in Chicago (AL) (18.7 K-BB% vs RHP). It's a high upside spot and Kluber has a 33.1 K% over the last month, but the Tribe may not be motivated to extend him very far tonight. The same can't' be said of Clayton Kershaw (24.1 K%, 3.42 SIERA, .289 xwOBA) with the Dodgers just a game and a half up in the division. Kershaw is in Arizona (81 wRC+ at home, 93 wRC+ vs LHP, 42 wRC+ last seven days). He's gone at least six innings in 14 straight starts with as many as three ERs in only two of those. However, he has just a 21.3 K%, 3.94 SIERA and .310 xwOBA over the last month, which are basically all league average numbers. Stephen Strasburg (28.9 K%, 3.24 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) has allowed two ERs or less in five straight and struck out 20 of his last 53 batters. He's in a nice spot at home against the Marlins (85 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP). Jameson Taillon (22.8 K%, 3.75 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) has seen another strikeout rate spike over the last month (28.6%) and has gone seven innings in three of his last four starts. The price hike comes in a tough spot at Wrigley (Cubs 12.4 K-BB% vs RHP). Both the Nationals and Cubs are out of contention at this point.

One game off from a full slate and a healthy number of five pitchers exceed a $10K price tag on both sites. No pitcher exceeds that cost on only one site. Stephen Strasburg (28.1 K%, 3.30 SIERA, .318 xwOBA) struck out nine Phillies in seven innings last time out and hasn't allowed more than two ERs in four straight. He's got one of the top matchups on the board in Miami (8.4 HR/FB at home, 85 wRC+ vs RHP). The SP4 on FD, SP5 on DK may be the top value among high priced arms tonight. Clayton Kershaw (24.7 K%, 3.28 SIERA, .283 xwOBA) has gone at least six innings in 13 straight starts, but does not have a double digit strikeout game in any of those starts. He's the SP3 on FD, SP2 on DK and also in a great spot in one of the most negative run environments in baseball against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% on the road, but 16 HR/FB vs LHP). Aaron Nola (26.6 K%, 3.42 SIERA, .269 xwOBA) might be the top overall pitcher on the board this season, but while his strikeout rate has increased to 32.5% over the last month, he's allowed at least three runs over each of his last three starts (seven HRs). The Mets are an improved offense, now with a 103 wRC+ on the road and 101 wRC+ vs RHP. Nola is the SP5 on FD, but the SP3 on DK. Corey Kluber (25.6 K%, 3.29 SIERA, .294 xwOBA) has had a week off after a terrible start in Tampa Bay (1.2 IP, 4 ER). He's had two great starts, but also two terrible ones against the Rays and Royals over his last four. Kluber is the most expensive FD pitcher, but SP4 on DraftKings at home against the White Sox (18.7 K-BB% vs RHP). Blake Snell (30.7 K%, 3.35 SIERA, .284 xwOBA) has a 40.4 K% over the last month and may be the highest upside pitcher on the board. He's also the most expensive pitcher on DK, SP2 on FD. He's also in a terrible park in Texas, though the Rangers have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP and 58 wRC+ over the last month , but both with a strikeout rate just below 23%.