Daniel Norris Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Daniel Norris pitches on the road for the seventh time in nine starts. He’s allowed six runs in two of his last three, one of those in Cleveland, where he went seven innings with eight strikeouts. A below average strikeout rate (18.1%) with good control (5.9%), he can’t get whiffs in the strike zone (90.1 Z-Contact% is worst on the board among pitchers with more than two starts). A 4.96 ERA is supported by estimators with a 5.90 DRA nearly a run higher. His 90.6 mph aEV and 43.6% 95+ mph EV are both worst on the board. To sum, the fewest rate of swing and misses in the strike zone with the hardest contact allowed, although he did pitch better than his ending line in Cleveland in their most recent meeting a few starts back. The Indians also have just an 81 wRC+ vs LHP despite a 10% walk rate due to below average power (13.3 HR/FB, 19.2 Hard-Soft%) as the park is designed to favor LHP. Yet, the Tribe is projected above every other non-Coors offense tonight at 6.26 implied runs. There are two interesting bats in the projected lineup aside from Francisco Lindor (120 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Carlos Santana (147 wRC+, .195 ISO). Two unexpected lefty mashers over the last year have been Jordan Luplow (158 wRC+, .327 ISO) and Roberto Perez (140 wRC+, .268 ISO). While both have xwOBA more than 20 points below their actual mark against southpaws in this smaller sample span, each mark is still above a healthy .350 and neither is above $4.1K on DraftKings or $2.7K on FanDuel.

Daniel Norris went seven innings, striking out a season high eight Indians last time out, but still allowed six runs. The lone bright spot in his season is a 5.5 BB%. He has a below average strikeout rate 19% with a 90 Z-Contact%. His 4.69 ERA is justified by a 4.53 SIERA and even seen as optimistic by a 5.64 DRA and .340 xwOBA. He’s allowed far too much hard contact, as his 90.7 mph aEV is worst on the board (42.9% 95+ mph EV is second worst) and he faces an offense that has been very proficient against LHP this year (118 wRC+, 17.3 HR/FB), who gain a DH today. Weather effects are particularly interesting in Detroit tonight and possibly not very favorable for Norris. Weather Edge (premium subscription required) currently shows some potentially power suppressing winds, but those appear to be blowing in from right field (less of a help to Norris, who will likely be facing predominantly RHBs), while the overall hot temperatures may lead to a run scoring boost overall. This could change throughout the afternoon, so premium subscribers will want to re-check conditions before game time. For now, Washington has a 5.73 implied run line that’s tied for the best mark outside Coors tonight. RHBs have a .332 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) with 40% ground ball and hard hit rates against Norris over the last calendar year (LHBs are even better). Anthony Rendon (149 wRC+, .315 ISO), Howie Kendrick (172 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Victor Robles (143 wRC+, .247 ISO) have all hit southpaws very well over the last calendar year. Trea Turner (131 wRC+, .156 ISO) with less power. Kurt Suzuki (125 wRC+, .208 ISO) or Yan Gomes (106 wRC+, .163 ISO) would have some value behind the plate. Both are below $3K on FanDuel, but the latter is just $2.9K on DraftKings as well.

The Twins have lots of good options in their lineup at home vs. Daniel Norris this afternoon. Norris has a 4.93 xFIP, 4.80 SIERA with a 40.6% hard contact rate and just a 36% GB rate on the year. Norris also has an ugly 10% barrel rate allowed, a 90 MPH aEV and a .340 xwOBA allowed. Since 2017, Norris has a pretty neutral platoon split in terms of xwOBA (.366 vs. LHB, .352 vs. RHB) and can be targeted with hitters from either side of the plate. The Twins come into this game with the 2nd hottest offense in baseball over the past 10 days with a .362 xwOBA. Nelson Cruz (.406 xwOBA since 2018 vs. LHP), CJ Cron (.361), Mitch Garver (.322), Marwin Gonzalez (.317), Max Kepler (.310) and Jonathan Schoop (.302) are all good options in the Twins’ projected lineup. Mitch Garver (.458 xwOBA over the past 10 days) and CJ Cron (.450) have been the Twins hottest hitters. The Twins will also have the benefit of a very hitter-friendly umpire in Jordan Baker. They will have a 4.99 implied line vs. Norris and the Tigers.

James Paxton has a 31.9 K% this season that's only exceeded on today's board by the visiting pitcher at Fenway. Paxton also has a difficult matchup against the Yankees (113 wRC+, 10.4 BB%, 17.9 HR/FB vs LHP). He has struggled with injuries (one start since 8/14) and performance (at least three runs in eight of last 11 starts), but he still has a 33.2 K% over that span and gets to face the Yankees (23.9 K% vs LHP) at home. He's also less than $10K tonight and may be the top value on the site despite the wide range of potential outcomes. Some of those outcomes include the potential to meet or exceed the fantasy production of any other pitcher on the board. Chris Archer has just a 22.7 K% in six starts for the Pirates and went beyond five innings for the first time in his last start. He hosts Miami though (86 wRC+ vs RHP), and costs less than $7.5K. Steven Matz has a 29.8 K% and 13.4 SwStr% over the last 30 days. He's gone seven innings with one run allowed in two straight starts and costs $7.6K or less at home against the Phillies (83 wRC+, 5.6 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). Dylan Bundy is still a launching pad, but has struck out 15 of his last 49 and does get a park upgrade in Tampa Bay for $6.5K. Felix Pena has improved on his hard contact rate (88 mph aEV for the season now) and has a 25 K% over the last month. He's on the road against the White Sox (18.7 K-BB% vs RHP). He's less than $7K as well. Daniel Norris is not in a great spot (Cardinals 106 wRC+, 16.9 HR/FB vs LHP), but costs just $5K DK and struck out seven of 15 Yankees in his return from the DL. Seven pitchers on tonight's slate have an xwOBA below .290 over the last week. Derek Holland (.270) is the only one costing less than $10K. He's in a dangerous spot in Milwaukee, but costs less than $7K on DraftKings.

Premium subscribers may have noticed some new features available to them this week. Yesterday, the Stolen Base Threats board went live. This leaderboard will show you which speedsters have the best shot at stealing bases independent of their actual ability to reach base tonight. "Takeoff" and "Success" ratings are calculated independently for baserunners, pitchers and catchers to come up with overall individual matchup ratings. While a burner like Jarrod Dyson or Billy Hamilton might be the top overall threat, players still need to factor that in with their ability to reach base. Perhaps someone like Whit Merrifield (121 wRC+, .201 ISO vs LHP since 2017) stands out as the best of both worlds in a matchup with Daniel Norris (RHBs .353 xwOBA, 42.3 Hard% since last season). Noah Syndergaard has always been a pitcher that the opposing team can and will run at will against, provided they can reach base in the first place. Premium and/or BAT subscribers will now also notice Umpire assignments and ratings (Extreme Pitcher, Pitcher, Neutral, Hitter, Extreme Hitter) available in LineupHQ as well, as those assignments become available throughout the day.

Seven teams on a full 15 game slate have an implied run line between 4.79 and 5.04 currently. Half a run above them are the Twins at 5.5 and half a run above them, topping the board, are the Diamondbacks at 5.94 runs, hosting Adam Conley tonight He has a 46.1 Hard% over the last month. RHBs have a .362 wOBA with five HRs, a 31 GB% and 47.2 Hard%. Pitching is not that expensive tonight, so everyone will likely be paying up for J.D. Martinez (229 wRC+, .500 ISO, 54.7 Hard%, 45.3 FB% vs LHP). Paul Goldschmidt (137 wRC+, .262 ISO, 50 Hard% vs LHP) will also be highly coveted, but has just a 42 wRC+ over the last week. A.J. Pollock (118 wRC+, .269 ISO) and Chris Iannetta (135 wRC+, .203 ISO) have been the other big bats against southpaws this year, the former with a 276 wRC+, 50 Hard% and three HRs over the last week. Brian Dozier (163 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP) may be the second best bat on the slate. Daniel Norris makes his first major league start in months. He's been pitching out of the pen in September, striking out just four of 32 batters faced. RHBs have a 40.1 GB% and 42.9 Hard% against him this year. While Norris is unlikely to make it deep into this game, the Detroit bullpen is nothing to fear, although the Twins probably won't be holding platoon advantages afterward. Only three additional Twins have a wRC+ above 100 vs LHP (Byron Buxton, Joe Mauer, Robbie Grossman), none above 115. Of those three, only Buxton (.149) has an ISO even above .100 against left-handers this year, though several less potent Minnesota bats may make for reasonable salary savors if needed in a strong matchup tonight.