DJ LeMahieu Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

DJ LeMahieu scratched Friday.

DJ LeMahieu bats atop the Yankee lineup most nights. Last year, he had a 182 wRC+ and .256 ISO vs LHP and he’s started off the new season hot overall (274 wRC+). While John Means had a decent rookie season (3.60 ERA, .305 xwOBA), his SIERA (5.02) and DRA (4.61) were much higher. He’s also unlikely to go deep into this game either way, just off the IL, and has one of the worst bullpens in baseball backing him up. It’s hitting weather in Baltimore and the Yankees own the top implied run line tonight (6.35). LeMahieu is not only a top overall bat, but a great value on FanDuel for just $3.3K.

The ALCS moves on to Yankee Stadium tonight, the more hitter friendly run environment on the board tonight. While certainly much more power friendly, in a vacuum, it’s not really a much higher run scoring environment than Washington overall. However, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-60s and negligible winds, according to the RG Weather Page, Weather Edge is showing a sizable run and power boost with more than a 50 game sample, surprisingly.

Gerrit Cole was simply lights out against the Rays, striking out 25 of the 54 batters he saw, while allowing a single solo HR over 15.2 innings. It’s certainly a tougher lineup he’ll face tonight, but his 39.9 K%, 2.62 SIERA, 2.36 DRA, 77.1 Z-Contact% and .238 xwOBA are all easily best on the board today. This, of course, also easily makes him the most expensive pitcher on the board by around $2K on either site, but he’s one of two pitchers we should be confident might get some length tonight. He was the best pitcher in baseball this year and not someone the Astros will look to remove at the first sign of trouble. A 3.38 implied run line for the Yankees is second lowest on the board and likely the lowest we’ve seen for this team in a home game in quite some time. Didi Gregorius (85 wRC+, .186 ISO) is the only batter in the Yankee lineup below a 115 wRC+ vs RHP this year and DJ LeMahieu (119 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Giovanny Urshela (135 wRC+, .210 ISO) are the only other ones below a .250 ISO. This is not going to be an easy lineup to navigate and anyone’s playable on a two game slate, but batters from either side of the plate are below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Cole this year. Aaron Judge had a 50.9 Hard% vs RHP this year.

On the other side, Luis Severino’s results were fine through three starts this year (35.4 K%, 1.50 ERA), but he did this in just 12 innings with a 10.1 SwStr%, 3.80 SIERA and 4.05 DRA. He struck out four of the 17 Twins he faced in his lone post-season start. However, if the Yankees were willing to pull James Paxton at the first sign of trouble, that doesn’t speak confidently for Severino, who’s not made it through more than 19 batters in any of his outings this year. The good news is that he’s just $6.9K on DraftKings. The bad news is that the Astros had a 123 wRC+ vs RHP this year and a 4.12 implied run line that’s second highest on the board. The projected lineup has just a 17 K% vs RHP this year. While the Astros will be facing one of the best bullpens in baseball behind Severino, most of those guys pitched two nights ago and it’s hard to match up with an offense that hits pitchers from either side of the plate well nearly all the way through. Each of the first seven batters in the projected order, who are the same as the first two games of this series, were above a 120 wRC+ and .210 ISO vs RHP this year.

Zack Greinke gets the ball for the Astros tonight coming off a disappointing outing vs. the Rays on 10/7 that saw him allow 6 earned on 3 and 2/3 innings, with 3 home runs allowed. Greinke has a 4.58 ERA / 4.29 FIP in the postseason with a 1.53 HR/9 over 70 and 2/3 innings. He had a 3.02 ERA / 3.28 FIP, 17.3 % K-BB and .276 xwOBA allowed over 68 and 2/3 regular season innings after being traded to Houston. His home/away and lefty/righty splits are very even over the past 5 years, so no advantage or disadvantage to be had there. He’ll face a Yankees lineup tonight that posted a 3rd best 114 wRC+ during the regular season with a 23.1% K rate.

The Yankees come into this game with a postseason-best .363 xwOBA as a team, but only have an implied total of 4.01 vs. Greinke tonight. Their projected lineup: 1. DJ LeMahieu (.364 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Aaron Judge (.383), 3. Brett Gardner (.312), 4. Edwin Encarnacion (.339), 5. Giancarlo Stanton (.370), 6. Gleyber Torres (.330), 7. Gary Sanchez (.379), 8. Didi Gregorius (.291), 9. Gio Urshela (.363). Not much of a sample size here, but Aaron Judge has swung it well with a .528 xwOBA over 14 PA in the playoffs thus far. Gleyber Torres is right behind him with a .472 mark in 13 PA. Once Greinke is chased from the game, The Yankees will face a tough Astros ‘pen that has allowed just a .288 xwOBA over the past 30 days.

Masahiro Tanaka gets the nod for the Yankees and has his work cut out for him as his opposition has the highest implied total (4.99) on the slate by about a full run. Tanaka last pitched on 10/5, so he’ll be pitching on full rest. Tanaka posted a decent 4.45 ERA / 4.29 xFIP over 182 regular season innings but saw his K% shrink to a career-low 19.6%. He does have a 1.54 ERA / 3.61 xFIP in the postseason, but in a small sample of 35 innings. In terms of xwOBA allowed, Tanaka has been a bit better at home (.279 allowed at home, .317 away since 2015) but nothing too crazy. The Astros led all of baseball with a 123 wRC+ vs. RHP and also had the lowest K rate in the league vs. RHP at 18.4%

The Astros come into this game with just a .291 xwOBA over 177 plate appearances in the postseason, though we have a much larger sample of regular season stats to tell us that this is probably the most dangerous offense in baseball. Their projected lineup for tonight: 1. Springer (.389 xwOBA v. RHP this year), 2. Brantley (.377), 3. Altuve (.325), 4. Bregman (.370), 5. Alvarez (.414), 6. Gurriel (.318), 7. Correa (.363), 8. Chirinos (.284), 9. Reddick (.309). Though the Astros have mostly been cold so far in the postseason, Jose Altuve and Robinson Chirinos both have xwOBAs over .425, and Michael Brantley has a decent .385 mark as well. The coldest Astro has been Correa with a .186 xwOBA, which isn’t too much of a surprise given that he played just 3 regular season games over the final 6 weeks of the regular season. Once Tanaka is chased, the Astros will face a Yanks’ bullpen that has allowed a .312 xwOBA over the past month.

Perhaps a surprising thing about Minnesota is that it is considered a positive run environment. However, with temperatures potentially below 60 degrees at game time tonight, that may not really be the case tonight. That said, it’s still virtually impossible to side with Jake Odorizzi tonight, especially in an elimination spot (though anyone expected to go through the order more than once is GPP viable on a four game slate). His overall numbers are fine this year (27.1 K%, 4.14 SIERA, 3.36 FIP, 4.23 DRA, 78.8 Z-Contact%, .296 xwOBA). Even his board high 7.8% Barrels/BBE is not too bad and he ended the season on quite the run, striking out 26 of his last 66 batters, but 44 of those batters were White Sox and Tigers. Here, he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (35 GB%) with a career reverse split in a park that generally favors RH power, facing a lineup loaded with such. The good news for Twins fans is that he exhibited a more normal split this year (RHBs .255 wOBA, LHBs .324). Unfortunately, Statcast doesn’t agree (RHBs .309 xwOBA, RHBs .282). Again, that’s not a poor number, but this is the Yankees against whom he experienced his worst start of the season (9 ER, 2 HR, 4 IP) in July. They’re expected to send out six batters above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year and two of the three below that mark are DJ LeMahieu (119 wRC+ vs RHP) and Giancarlo Stanton (128 wRC+). What order the Yankees send those batters out in is a more complicated matter because virtually any order makes some sense, but LeMahieu and Aaron Judge (121 wRC+, .251 ISO) are virtual locks at the top of the order, while Edwin Encarnacion (121 wRC+, .266 ISO), Gary Sanchez (123 wRC+, .302 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (121 wRC+, .256 ISO) are additional premium bats against RHP.

WeatherEdge is projecting a decrease in home runs, and to a lesser degree a decrease in total runs for this matchup between the Twins and Yanks in New York. Still, the game currently has a healthy 9.5 O/U, two runs higher than Rays @ Astros game.

The Yankees will face off versus right-handed Randy Dobnak, who was called up late in the year for the Twins and provided a solid 1.59 ERA / 2.90 FIP / 3.77 SIERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 15.3% K-BB over 28 and 1/3 innings between the bullpen and rotation. Though it’s a small sample, Dobnak has been more effective vs. lefties (.261 xwOBA allowed in 59 PA) than righties (.316 xwOBA allowed in 59 PA). Once Dobnak is done, the Yankees will face a Twins bullpen that has the 3rd best SIERA (3.24) over the past month. Gary Sanchez (.381 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Aaron Judge (.380), Gio Urshela (.365), DJ LeMahieu (.364), Giancarlo Stanton (.362), Edwin Encarnacion (.356), Gleyber Torres (.327), Brett Gardner (.312) and Didi Gregorius (.286) make up all nine options in the Yanks’ projected order. Stanton and Judge have been the Yankees hottest hitters over the past 2 weeks with xwOBAs over .440, while Gregorius and Torres have been cold, each having an xwOBA below .200.

The Twins will matchup with Masahiro Tanaka and currently have a 4.07 implied total which feels a bit low given how stacked this Twins lineup is. Tanaka posted a middling 4.45 ERA / 4.27 FIP / 4.29 xFIP this year, and a similar 4.32 ERA / 3.97 FIP / 4.20 xFIP over the past 30 days. By xwOBA, Tanaka has been mostly platoon neutral over the past 3 years. When Tanaka is chased from the game, the Twins will face a Yanks bullpen that has an 8th best 3.68 SIERA over the past 30 days. Nelson Cruz (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jason Castro (.386), Jorge Polanco (.355), Jake Cave (.355), Miguel Sano (.350), Luis Arraez (.342), Max Kepler (.340), Eddie Rosario (.326) and Marwin Gonzalez (.313) are all options in the Twins projected order. Cave, Cruz and Sano all have an xwOBA over .425 over the past 2 weeks. Luis Arraez is the only aforementioned name with an xwOBA below .320 over the past 2 weeks. Jake Cave stands out as a very nice value on both major sites, especially given his recent success.

Temperatures are expected to be over 30 degrees cooler in New York than Atlanta today and while there appears to be a strong wind, it seems to be blowing across the field, according to weather edge. This still may be the game players want to target for offense tonight. Jose Berrios has both the second lowest strikeout rate (23.2%) and aEV (86.5 mph) on the board today. His 3.68 ERA and 3.85 FIP are quality marks as well, but his 4.44 DRA is actually worst on the board. And while it’s still a better than average mark, his .303 xwOBA is also just one of two above .300 today. In fact, batters from either side of the plate had a .303 xwOBA against him this year with an actual wOBA within three points. Though he seemed to straighten himself out in September (two runs or less in three of his last four starts), Berrios did allow at least three runs in each of his previous six starts. This Yankee lineup is completely stacked. Virtually anyone in it could bat third or eighth. Among those projected, only Didi Gregorius (83 wRC+, .187 ISO) was below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Giancarlo Stanton (.156) and DJ LeMahieu (.166) along with Gregorius were below a .200 ISO against RHP this year.

James Paxton gets the ball for the Yankees to start this series. He had an amazing September (1.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP, .245 xwOBA, 30.6 K%), but he also left his last start of the season after a single inning due to glute tightness. He calls it a non-issue and could have amazing upside for just $6.9K in this spot, but the Twins had a 126 wRC+ vs LHP that’s the highest split on the board today. Paxton at less than 100% could be a problem here. The projected lineup for the Twins features four batters above a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO vs LHP this year, all with more than 120 PAs: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron. Beware that the Yankees do have an abundance of quality right-handers they can bring out of the pen if need be here, but these Twins bats were also very strong against RHP as well.

The Yankees get a great matchup at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park tonight vs. Joe Palumbo. Palumbo had decent numbers in the minors, but has really struggled over 6 games (3 starts) in the Bigs, coughing up a 9.22 ERA with a .381 xwOBA allowed. With Giancarlo Stanton back this Yankee lineup is looking as dangerous as ever, especially against lefties as the majority of the Yankees’ lineup will have the platoon advantage. Aaron Judge (.459 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.416), Luke Voit (.396), Gleyber Torres (.375), Austin Romine (.355), Gio Urshela (.324), Didi Gregorius (.305) and Giancarlo Stanton (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP last year) are all great options tonight. Judge, Stanton and Voit all have an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. On Draftkings only Stanton, Gregorius, Voit, Urshela and Romine are priced at $4.5k or less. Pricing is a bit more flexible on Fanduel, where Judge is the only NYY hitter over $4k. The Yankees currently have a juicy 7.00 implied total vs. Palumbo and the Rangers tonight.