Domingo German Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

To illustrate the difference in the quality of pitching over the last two days, five of 14 pitchers reached $10K on both sites last night, while just two of 30 reach $10K on either site with none exceeding that number on DraftKings. One of those pitchers (Noah Syndergaard) leads the board with a 28.3 K%, but is fresh off a long DL stint, having faced just 12 low A ball batters since May. The other (Madison Bumgarner) pitches in a great park, but has a below average strikeout rate (19.6%) and while the Athletics have a 93 wRC+ and 15.5 K-BB% vs LHP, they have a team 118 wRC+ on the road and 120 wRC+ over the last seven days. If we're not looking at high end pitching tonight, maybe we speculate on lesser proven arms who have shown some upside. It could all come crashing down for Felix Pena, who's facing the Dodgers (110 wRC+ vs RHP) with a board high 91 mph aEV), but he does have the second best strikeout rate on the board (28.1%) and costs less than $7K in a great park tonight. Shane Bieber is in a terrible spot at home against the Yankees (16+ HR/FB on the road, vs RHP and last seven days), but his 19.2 K-BB% through seven starts is the worst he's done since being drafted. His 23.1 K% is a top 10 mark on the board tonight for $8K on either site. Opposing him is Domingo German, who has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (26.9%) and is tied for the top SwStr rate (15%). This is a really tough spot as well (Indians 123 wRC+, 27.5 Hard-Soft% at home, 106 wRC+, 20.6 K% vs RHP), but the run prevention has improved over the last month and while his ERA is still well above his estimators, it's much more due to strand rate issues than hard contact. Strikeouts (17.8%) and ground balls (55.3%) are both down for Dallas Keuchel, but the latter is still well above league average, while his ERA and estimators remain below four. The Tigers are competent against LHP (108 wRC+, 19.9 K%), but without much power, Keuchel should be albe to keep them grounded in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Carlos Martinez has walked just five over his last four starts. He still has just a 22 K%, but perhaps as much upside as anyone on the board not coming off the DL tonight with an 84.7 mph aEV. Anibal Sanchez (23.3 K%, 3.98 SIERA, .289 xwOBA, 84.5 mph aEV) has simply been a better pitcher since ditching some sinkers for more cutters this season. The Diamondbacks are better than their 82 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP now that they're a bit healthier, but he still costs less than $8K. Maybe the most interesting arm is Nathan Eovaldi though. He's struck out nine, while allowing a single run in two of his last three starts and Tampa Bay has him elevating a 97 mph fastball this year, which has led to a 25.3 Whiff% on it, the highest of any of his pitches with three above 20%. His 24.3 K% is fourth best on the board and there are significant questions about each of the pitchers above him tonight. His .331 SIERA is fourth. Maybe the Rays have finally found the key to unlocking his potential.

Although there is a lack of top end arms on the board, there's no shortage of value arms on the mound with a couple of guys who could end up with high end performances. Shane Bieber brings a 20+ K-BB% to a matchup with the Royals. The Royals have just a 19.2 K% vs RHP, but also have a 78 wRC+, 7.0 BB%, and 8.0 HR/FB vs RHP with their own 20 K-BB% (37 wRC+) over the last week. Bieber is up to $9.6K on DraftKings, but his performance still probably warrants a higher price, while being $1.6K less on FanDuel. Ryan Yarbrough is finally starting and doing so in Miami (split low 75 wRC+ and 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP) for around $6K. He's gone six innings in several outings and has allowed just one run over his last 10.2 innings against the Yankees and Astros. He has just a 16.4 K% over the last month, but with a 10.8 SwStr%. His 26.8% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board. Domingo German doesn't just have the highest SwStr% on the board, but his 15.4% is best by several points. The only guys better than that in the majors (Scherzer, Sale, deGrom) are all serious Cy Young contenders. He’s one of just two pitchers on the board (Greinke is the other) with elite Z-Contact (79.7%) and Z-O-Swing (29.5%) rates. This means he’s getting batters to swing at his pitches and he’s making them miss even when they aren’t. His 5.32 ERA is not even a result of being hit that hard. While an 18.0 HR/FB is an undesirable feature of Yankee Stadium, he also has just a 55.8 LOB% since being moved into the rotation. The Braves don't strike out a lot (20% vs RHP), but have just a 95 wRC+ and 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP too. German costs just $6.5K on FanDuel. Trevor Richards has just a 10 K-BB% in 10 major league starts due to a 10.5 BB%. However, he had a 21.9 K-BB% at AAA this year and a 18.8 K-BB% at AA and 24.4 K-BB% at A+ last year. He might be at least competent for $5.9K on FanDuel against a slumping Rays' offense (56 wRC+, 25.7 K%, 3.1 HR/FB last seven days) in a great park. Clayton Richards will not give you much upside, but he leads all qualified starters in ground ball rate (57.7%) and last failed to complete six innings in his first start of May. He’s failed to complete seven innings in only three starts since then. He's more likely than not to complete seven innings in Oakland for $6.8K on DraftKings. Zack Wheeler shut out the Pirates for seven innings with seven Ks last time out. He has now struck out 22 of his last 76 batters and has gone at least six innings in nine of his last 11 starts, missing once by just a single out. His 85.5 mph aEV is lowest on the board tonight.The Blue Jays have a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.

Potentially over-shadowed by higher cost, higher upside arms above them, there are a few a guys with mid-range price tags who could be under-represented tonight. Domingo German has not allowed fewer than three runs in any of his six starts since throwing six no-hit innings in his first one. However, he’s struck out 19 of his last 48 batters to drive up his strikeout rate to 27.8% on the season. His 15.6 SwStr% is best on the board and his 17.4 SwStr% over the last month is even better and should make him stand out on this board. He has a 22.6 K-BB% over his last four starts, but costs less than $8K, in part because the matchup is tough against the Mariners (20.5 K% vs RHP, 18.9 HR/FB last seven days). Jameson Taillon has a much smaller range of potential outcomes, but has a 23.7 K%, 3.37 SIERA and .244 xwOBA over the last 30 days, while pitching into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts. The Brewers have 99 wRC+ and 24.7 K% vs RHP. Taillon is within $400 of $8K on either site. Vince Velasquez has four starts of four runs or more in fewer than five innings and that probably scares some people. However, his 28.3 K% for the season and 30.4 K% over the last month are both third best on the board. His .292 xwOBA this season is fourth best. The Cardinals have a 25.8 K% on the road, 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 18.6 K-BB% last seven days and were dominated by Nick Pivetta, a pitcher with similar upside, last night.

Domingo German threw six no-hit innings with nine strikeouts in his first start and hasn't allowed less than three runs in an outing since. He's allowed 22 ERs and six HRs in 27 innings over that span with a 21.7 K%, but 13.2 SwStr% over that span, in which he's generated just a 39.5 GB% with a 40.7 Hard%. Somehow, the Rays still have the lowest implied run line on the board (3.77) at Yankee Stadium tonight. Interestingly, German throws the curveball most often (37.3%) and it's his best pitch (.225 xwOBA, 83.6 mph aEV, 37.5 Whiff%). Rays confirmed for tonight's lineup do not have a lot of experience against curveballs at the major league level. Among batters who do, C.J. Cron has a .371 wOBA with just a 41.3 GB% against the pitch since 2016. German does throw the pitch even more often against RHBs (45%) and has been worse overall against them as well (.332 wOBA, 39.7 Hard% vs .290, 32.2% against LHBs). Cron has a 121 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. He's a nice play tonight, as might be Matt Duffy (148 wRC+, .119 ISO) out of the leadoff spot. Duffy's xwOBA (.330) is 50 points below his actual wOBA (.381) against RHP, but his price tag is low enough that there may still be some value there. Jake Bauers (.458 xwOBA) and Willy Adames (.158 xwOBA) are high profile rookies without many PAs against RHP at the major league level yet. German needs to be considered too for $7K or less on this slate. Also realize that it's only going to get worse for the Rays once the bullpen enters the game and that's part of what goes into that Vegas run line.