Dylan Covey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Dylan Covey’s 2019 stats are certainly not the reason you’d roster him tonight, as he has a 7.69 ERA / 5.61 xFIP / 5.61 SIERA with a 5.4% K-BB, 1.69 WHIP and 7.3% SwStr. For whatever it’s worth, he does have a 2.82 ERA / 4.02 xFIP over 51 innings in AAA this year, including his last 3 starts from 8/22 – 9/2 where he allowed just 3 runs and 3 walks over 17 and 2/3 innings. The reason he is an intriguing play tonight is his price and matchup. Covey will face the Mariners, who have a league-worst .257 xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching since the trade deadline. That is the worst mark of any team by .016 points. The Mariners also have an awful 27.1% K rate since the deadline. Covey also gets a park upgrade, going from Guaranteed Rate Field to spacious and pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Covey is just $5500 on Fanduel and an even cheaper $4000 on Draftkings and projects as one of the best PTS/$ arms on the slate. Pairing Covey with an ace and/or stacking Coors or another expensive stack is certainly an option on this slate for GPPs.

Trevor Bauer’s 27.5 K% is fourth best on the slate, but he does have a 3.99 ERA which is lower than all of his estimators due to an 11.3 BB% and 90.3 mph aEV (10.7% Barrels/BBE is fourth worst on the board). Considering the lack of high end pitching even on a full slate, Bauer can still be used in this spot against an offense with a 19.6 K-BB% vs RHP, but the White Sox also have a 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Consider going contrarian and picking out some Chicago bats tonight, as conditions appear favorable to offense according to Weather Edge, a premium RotoGrinders tool. Bauer has already allowed one more HR this year (10) than all of last, split evenly between RH and LH batters, as he has fly ball tendencies against batters from either side of the plate. Yoan Moncada (110 wRC+, .200 ISO), Jose Abreu (96 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Eloy Jimenez (98 wRC+, .211 ISO) are the only batters in the projected lineup above even a .160 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Add in Tim Anderson (94 wRC+, .156 ISO) and nobody else is above a 90 wRC+ or .150 ISO. On the other side of this matchup, Dylan Covey has a -4.3 K-BB% and has allowed a HR in four straight starts. The Indians are a poor offense (82 wRC+, 12 HR/FB vs RHP), but do have patience (10.7 BB%). They are also the more obvious offense in this matchup, above five implied runs. Considering the terrible peripherals for Covey, Cleveland is the better team to all out stack in this situation, while players should probably be hunting for power against Bauer.

Dylan Covey has been atrocious this year with a 5.31 ERA / 7.40 xFIP / 7.73 SIERA and a -9.7 % K-BB. Covey is a 6.03 ERA / 5.02 xFIP pitcher over 212 innings in the MLB but surprisingly still has a rotation spot. His .445 xwOBA allowed this year would be worst in the league among all starters if he met the innings requirement. To make matters worse for Covey, he has to deal with an extra hitter-friendly umpire in David Rackley today. Jorge Polanco (.384 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Max Kepler (.376), CJ Cron (.372), Eddie Rosario (.351), Willians Astudillo (.333) and Marwin Gonzalez (.323) are all good options today vs. Covey. Jason Castro has a .457 xwOBA vs. RHP this year but is batting 8th. Byron Buxton has shown decent improvements this year and has a .300 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, he’ll bat last in the order but is always a threat for a steal. Marwin Gonzalez might be the best value bat, hitting 3rd in the order at just $4.1k. Luis Arraez is just $3.7k and bats 6th; he had a 146 wRC+ over 164 PA in AA this year. The Twins have a massive 6.48 implied total vs. Covey and the White Sox this afternoon.

The Blue Jays will face Dylan Covey at home in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre tonight. Covey is a career 6.06 ERA / 4.85 xFIP pitcher with a 4.9 K-BB%. This will be Covey’s 2nd start of 2019; he briefly started the year in the bullpen and was quickly demoted to AAA, but was recently called back up to take the place of Carlos Rodon. Covey normally does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (career 51.7% GB rate) but allows a ton of baserunners with a career 1.57 WHIP. Covey has been worse vs. lefties with a .368 xwOBA and 1.67 HR/9 vs. LHB in his career, with a .339 xwOBA and 1.32 HR/9 vs. RHB. Notable lefties in the Jays’ projected lineup include Justin Smoak (.377 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Rowdy Tellez (.361), Eric Sogard (.299, likely leading off) and Freddy Galvis (.279). Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Randall Grichuk (.316) are both decent right-handed options. With the exception of Eric Sogard ($4.5k), all Blue Jays bats are $4k or less on Draftkings tonight. The Blue Jays have a 4.82 implied total vs. Covey and the White Sox.

The Tribe owns the top implied run line on the board (5.58) with only two other teams above five. They have a matchup at home with Dylan Covey, who has allowed LHBs a .350 wOBA and 37.9 Hard%. Control can be an issue with him as well, but he's at least kept RHBs on the ground with 61.7% of batted balls. The top third of this order projects extremely well, as usual at home: Francisco Lindor (121 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP), Michael Brantley (137 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (166 wRC+, .328 ISO). Yonder Alonso (103 wRC+, .199 ISO) drops in the lineup to sixth, but still seems like a reasonable bet here. He has a lineup topping 276 wRC+ in 12 PAs over the last week.

Dylan Covey has allowed just three runs over his last 12 innings, all in relief. After impressing earlier in the season, a stretch of nine starts in 11 allowing four or more runs knocked him from the rotation. He's kept RHBs on the ground an astounding 62.1% of the time on batted balls, but LHBs have a .348 wOBA against him with a GB rate 15 points higher. Small sample superstar Ryan O'Hearn (241 wRC+, .471 ISO, 58.5 Hard%, .500 xwOBA) is supported by his Statcast numbers even if they're still going to regress heavily. He may be worth a shot here at a reasonable price. Alex Gordon (109 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP this season) and Raul Mondesi (102 wRC+, .171 ISO) have been league average bats ahead of him.

The Yankees are coming off a four game sweep in Boston and are on the road in Chicago tonight, yet are still one of tonight's top projected offenses at 5.56 implied runs. Perhaps that's because Dylan Covey has allowed at least four runs in seven of his last eight starts with a -2.2 K-BB% over that span. While most Yankee bats are still above average, have power or both against RHP, without Judge, Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .240 ISO) is essentially the top bat in the lineup. He has the top ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and only Miguel Andujar (123 wRC+, .186 ISO) is higher via wRC+. While batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Covey since last season, he generates ground balls on more than 50% of contact against either side as well and has only allowed eight HRs all season, four in one game in Texas. This lineup probably works best as a stack in this spot, but they aren't cheap. Three of the first four batters cost at least $5K on DraftKings. The Yankees will probably have traffic on the bases against Covey and should score some runs, but Giancarlo Stanton (114 wRC+, .238 ISO) is the closest thing to a standout bat near the top of the order and value may be marginal in an expensive lineup.

Dylan Covey in Seattle two starts back 8.1 IP - 2 H - 0 R - 2 BB - 5 K. It was the first time in six starts that he failed to allow at least four runs. He followed that up with six runs, two HRs and two strikeouts against the Angels and still has two more walks (19) than strikeouts (17) over his last seven starts. The Royals have a virtually empty lineup and 4.32 run line that's tied for fourth best on the board tonight. Lucas Duda (105 wRC+, .229 ISO) is the first batter we see in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ or .180 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Brett Phillips (127 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Raul Mondesi (117 wRC+, .160 ISO) are the other above average bats. They hit sixth and ninth. Considering that Covey has allowed batters from either side of the plate a wOBA above .350 and an xwOBA within two points of .375 in his career, Whit Merrifield (97 wRC+, .115 ISO) and Salvador Perez (75 wRC+, .178 ISO) may still have some value at the top of the lineup. The latter has a 195 wRC+ with three HRs over the last week. Ryan O'Hearn had just an 86 wRC+ and .159 ISO at AAA this season. So, of course he homered in his first major league game. He costs the minimum on FD ($3.1K on DK), batting seventh.

Dylan Covey has been lit up in recent starts. Over his last 15 innings (four starts), he's allowed 24 runs (22 earned) with six HRs, 13 walks and just five strikeouts! The Cardinals arrive in Chicago, adding a DH and are the last of seven teams above five implied runs tonight (5.13). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Covey for his career. Matt Carpenter (141 wRC+, .146 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup and has a 196 wRC+ over the last week. Tommy Pham (130 wRC+, .192 ISO) is not far behind. Each of the first five batters in the lineup are above a 115 wRC+ and .175 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year.