Elieser Hernandez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Miami is a fantastic spot to look for cheap GPP pitching tonight. Chase Anderson has is a marginal or even below average arm with a 13 K-BB%, 13.8 HR/FB, 36.8 GB%, 4.58 ERA, 4.80 SIERA, 4.90 DRA and .323 xwOBA. Nothing at all sticks out about him and to further complicate matters, he hasn’t exceed 20 batters in four starts, completing five innings just once. However, he has just the type of profile that would benefit most from the park bump here and the matchup is the real appeal here, possibly the best park adjusted one on the board. The Marlins have a team 76 wRC+, 25.3 K% and 11.1 HR/FB vs RHP. While the workload makes him a more difficult roster on FanDuel, a $6K price tag on DraftKings makes him a nice complement to a higher priced arm.

Elieser Hernandez has similar below average estimators (4.65 SIERA, 5.29 DRA) with a 5.23 ERA, but there’s also some upside here. His 14.6 K-BB% is actually better than Anderson’s and despite the 18.4 HR/FB and 9.5% Barrels/BBE, Hernandez has generated an 85.6 mph aEV with a .306 xwOBA that’s 50 points below his actual results. He too, has just a 34.6 GB%, which will lead to more Barrels, but the park should help him out probably a bit more than it has. While the Brewers certainly have far more power than the Marlins, they strike out just as often vs RHP (25%), while Hernandez costs $400 more than Anderson on DraftKings and has completed six innings in four of his last six starts.

The game in Miami is an interesting spot to look at for pitching tonight. While that’s normally going to be the case because it’s a great park and the home team has a terrible offense, it’s not really clear cut that the visiting pitcher is the superior option here.

Vince Velasquez has a 26.6 K%, but has allowed far too much hard contact (28.5 Hard-Soft%, 90.2 mph aEV, 13.5% Barrels/BBE, 18.3 HR/FB). He has a 4.40 ERA with an unsustainable 83.3 LOB%, thus sporting a 5.09 DRA and .339 xwOBA. However, this is an excellent spot with a massive park upgrade (Marlins 76 wRC+, 18.1 K-BB%, 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and he costs less than $7.5K on either site. The upside alone is worth taking a shot in GPPs.

Elsier Hernandez struck out 34% of batters through 48 AAA innings before being recalled in June. In three starts, he’s allowed three HRs (all on the road), but struck out 19 of 67 batters (28.4%) with a 15.2 SwStr%. According to Statcast, he’s managed contact quite well too. An 85.4 mph aEV (27.8% 95+ mph EV) combined with that strikeout rate projects a .259 xwOBA some 56 points better than his actual mark. The Philadelphia offense has just a 91 wRC+ this year and their power drops substantially away from their power friendly home park (11.6 HR/FB). Hernandez has some upside and costs just $6.5K on DraftKings.

Hernandez had a rough 2018 which saw him post a 5.21 ERA / 5.76 xFIP / 5.28 SIERA with just a 15.9% K rate and 9.5% BB rate over 65 2/3 innings. However, he started 2019 in AAA and made some obvious adjustments, posting a 1.13 ERA with a 2.14 FIP and 4.09 xFIP and an impressive 34.3% K rate with a 7% walk rate over 48 innings. Through 13 2/3 innings so far this year after getting the call up, Hernandez has a 3.95 ERA / 4.63 xFIP / 4.05 SIERA with a 22.4% K rate and 3.5% BB rate and a healthy 12.8% SwStr that might indicate some positive regression in K%. More importantly, Hernandez’s Statcast profile highlights some of his changes: his slider’s spin rate has increased almost 200 RPM this year, and so far has generated a 55.6% whiff rate compared to just 27.9% last year. His four seamer velo has also increased 1.2 MPH, and he’s using the four seamer less and the slider more frequently so far this year. All this had led to a .225 xwOBA, 0% barrel rate and 83.7 aEV so far on the year, albeit in a very small sample. He’ll get a matchup tonight with the Phillies who have an 89 wRC+ and 22.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They have been cold lately as they come into this game with just a 28th ranked .283 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Hernandez is available for $6.5k on Draftkings and $7k on Fanduel and is certainly an intriguing play given the price and recent improvements.

Elieser Hernandez has been working out of the pen for the Marlins since his last start in June. He's gone three innings in each of his last two outings, but hasn't reached 40 pitches in over a month, which puts his cap at around four or five innings most likely, if he even gets that far. He has a 16.1 K% and 5.24 SIERA, though a respectable .338 xwOBA and 87.1 mph aEV. The Braves are one of the top projected offense tonight, but their 4.87 implied run line a distant third on this board, likely due to the extremely negative run environment. Players should consider some Atlanta exposure, since LHBs have a .389 wOBA against Hernandez this season, but keep the park effects in mind when paying up for Freddie Freeman (134 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Ender Inciarte (99 wRC+, .130 ISO) is more affordably available in between Freeman and the hottest Atlanta bat, Ronald Acuna (149 wRC+, .280 ISO).

Without a single one of tonight's eight pitchers averaging six innings per start, bullpens are likely to be active tonight, but which ones should daily fantasy players focus on. The Royals at a 4.29 FIP and 13.1 K-BB% have made great improvements to be nearly average over the last 30 days. The Marlins (4.47 FIP, 8.4 K-BB%) have the third lowest K-BB over the last 30 days. They have Atlanta in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, but are backing a rookie starter, who has averaged under five innings in his five starts. The Reds (5.11 FIP, 10 K-BB%) are backing home run prone Anthony DeSclafani at Wrigley. Those are the pens daily fantasy players can focus on attacking. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the A's (3.56 FIP, 19.7 K-BB%) and Braves (3.38 FIP, 15.2 K-BB%) may not only have two of the top starters on the slate tonight, but two of the top four bullpens in the majors by FIP over the last 30 days.

John Lamb and Elieser Hernandez are the only two pitchers averaging less than five innings per start in their six combined this season with Freddie Peralta and his three starts just above them. The Milwaukee bullpen has just a 3.92 FIP over the last month, but with an 18.6 K-BB% and we know where a lot of that is coming from. The Marlins have a lower FIP (3.82), but just a 10.2 K-BB% over the last month. The Angels (4.86) are one of just six teams above a 4.5 FIP over the last month, but the pen has a reasonable 15.5 K-BB% over that span. Two more pitchers averaging just more than five innings per start were both Mets at the start of the season (Steven Matz and Matt Harvey). While the Mets have the worst bullpen in baseball over the last month (6.00 FIP, 9.4 K-BB%), Matz has pitched at least 5.2 innings in five of his last six starts. The Reds aren't too much better (4.24 FIP, 8.1 FIP), but Harvey has completed five innings or better in six straight. Other bullpens to attack (5+ FIP, < 10 K-BB% last 30 days), should the opportunity arise are the Royals (5.31, 6.1%) and the Rockies (5.05, 5.9%), the latter a surprise due not to the park for sure, but the personnel they've added this season. The park upgrade in San Francisco tonight should give them a boost. Bullpens to avoid (< 3 FIP, 20+ K-BB% last 30 days) are as expected: the Yankees (2.68, 22.1%) and Astros (2.48, 28.6%). Both of which we're likely to see the best part of if much of any bullpen action at all with two high priced pitchers on the mound tonight.

On the whole, the Arizona offense is terrible against RHP (68 wRC+, 25.7 K%), but they are somehow projected by Vegas for 4.77 runs tonight. Elieser Hernandez has a 4.62 SIERA and .347 xwOBA in his few starts and the Miami bullpen has been terrible recently (negative K-BB% last 14 days). There may be a few at least average bats in the top half of the lineup, led by Jake Lamb (106 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) with only Paul Goldschmidt (104 wRC+, .194 ISO) costing above $4K on either site. Daniel Descalso (112 wRC+, .188 ISO) has surprisingly comparable numbers against RHP. John Ryan Murphy (85 wRC+, .277 ISO) leads the majors with 15.2% Barrels/PA this season (50 BBE min.).

Pitchers priced below $5K on DraftKings are not meant to make one feel comfortable, but all four that fit that description may be usable in support of a high priced arm. Mike Leake hasn't been great, but has pitched into the seventh inning in three of four starts and has a 60.7 GB% in that span. His xwOBA is finally below .400 and his aEV is nearly below 90 mph (90.4) with a hard hit rate below 40% in five of his last six starts. While we know that the Rays hit fastballs well (21.1 wFB), they are below average against sliders and cutters. In fact, he throws the cutter second most often this year (21.9%) and the Rays have a worse composite mark (-9.5 wCT) than any team in the majors against that pitch. Austin Pruitt is a near minimum priced pitcher who will garner nearly no ownership because he’s not officially listed as the starter tonight. He’s not going to overwhelm, but will miss the top half of the order in Seattle first time through. Elieser Hernandez just has an elite matchup at a near minimum cost in Arizona (68 wRC+, 25.7 K% vs RHP), even if his own numbers are not that encouraging (12.9 K%, 8.6 SwStr%, .347 xwOBA, 4.62 SIERA). Dennis Santana makes his debut in Coors (not good) and the Dodgers have declared this a potential bullpen game (not good), but he costs $4K and could give them enough reason to let him go for a while. The 22 year-old converted SS has exceeded a 30% strikeout rate in 50 combined innings at AA and AAA this season

Elieser Hernandez is a Rule 5 pick with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He has pitched a total of 17 innings above A ball, all this season and has struck out just three of 33 major league batters faced. The Mets lineup is heating up with only Michael Conforto (142 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) costing more than $3.6K on either site. Brandon Nimmo (150 wRC+, .204 ISO) is an amazing value at $3.4K or less on either site. Both he and Conforto crack a 150 or better wRC+ over the last seven days.

Every single batter in the Dodger lineup has a 107 or better wRC+ and only Chase Utley (.166) and Justin Turner (.167) are below a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Vegas adjusted the Dodger run line up half a run from 3.89 to 4.37 with the pitcher change, but even that is just fourth best on an eight team board. Elieser Hernandez costs the minimum on DraftKings. The Rule 5 pick was given just a 40 Future Value grade and has basically jumped from A ball to the majors this year, throwing three innings over two relief outings over the last week for his first major league action. If players are looking for just the possibility of positive points paired with Verlander or Sale, the Dodgers have a team 68 wRC+ over the last seven days and might not know who he is either. The Miami bullpen is likely to get some work in here. They have a 5.43 ERA, but the largest positive gap in baseball from a 4.30 FIP that's still a bottom six mark in the league. Important to note as well, Cody Bellinger (136 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only batter priced above $4K on either site.