Eric Lauer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Eric Lauer is the lone $10K pitcher on both sites tonight on an oddly sizeable Thursday night slate with either 9 or 10 games. Nestor Cortes is $10.3K on the only site he’s available on and Tarik Skubal breaches $10K on FanDuel, while missing by $300 on DraftKings. Kyle Wright is the only other pitcher on the slate who reaches $9K on both sites. Lauer is now a flame-throwing, power pitching stud, whose 32.9 K% is second best on the slate. He hasn’t struck out fewer than five in any start and has thrown Quality Starts with no more than a single earned run five of his last six times out. He’s also walked only 4.9% of batters. All this makes his 10.1% Barrels/BBE much easier to absorb. Even with seven of them leaving the park (15.9 HR/FB), his worst estimator is a 3.36 FIP. A predominantly right-handed St Louis lineup has absolutely pummeled LHP this year (147 wRC+, 19 K%), which is likely the biggest reason why Lauer is currently not even a top five projected pitcher tonight (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change), despite the substantial park upgrade.

Cortes’s 10.2 SwStr% does not support a 32.4 K%, nor is his 18.8 CStr% particularly elite, so we have to take even his estimators with a grain of salt. That said, he does get a park upgrade, but the Rays strikeout much less against LHP (18.9% with a 108 wRC+). This game is only available on FanDuel, but Cortes is just the fourth best projected pitcher.

Skubal has made significant changes to his pitch usage, achieving the accomplishment of cutting down on his home runs and barrels (5.1%) with more ground balls (48.3%), while not really hurting his strikeout rate (28.4%). He’s also nearly cut his walk rate in half (4.5%). The overall result so far is that he doesn’t have an estimator higher than a 2.77 SIERA and DRA. The Guardians have been much worse against LHP (82 wRC+), but are still fairly contact prone (20.9 K%). Even with just a 76 team wRC+ over the last seven days overall, they have just a 20 K%. Low opposing strikeout rates are probably why Skubal projects outside the top three. Skubal also has some weather concern in the early forecast.

Wright continues to cement himself as a top of the rotation arm with each start this season, most recently coming off five shutout innings in Miami (six strikeouts). His 21.1 K-BB% is more than double his career rate (9.9%), while five of his eight outings have been Quality Starts and his 50.9 GB% is nearly five points above his career rate as well (46%). His 2.49 ERA is below all estimators that still only range as high as a 3.12 xERA. There’s some weather risk in Atlanta, which is firmly a positive run environment, while the Phillies have a 101 wRC+ and 23.4 K% vs RHP. Wright projects just behind Skubal tonight. The most interesting thing about all this is that we haven’t even talked about any of the top three projected pitchers on either site tonight, which means they can all be head for less than $9K on at least one site.

Friday night features one of the largest (but getting smaller by the hour) and most chaotic slates we’ve seen so far this season. Already one game down (TEX/NYY) with several more in the northeast in danger, we can add openers, bullpen games, rookies and still unconfirmed starting pitchers to the list of things that make this slate quite volatile. We started the day with, perhaps, the best pitching board of the season. No fewer than five starting pitchers reach the $10K mark on at least one site. Four now, when we cross off Gerrit Cole. Three, as we’ve just lost Max Scherzer in Philly as well. Kevin Gausman & Shane Bieber also carry some risk, though the latter is just under $10K on FanDuel. That still leaves Eric Lauer and Yu Darvish. Scherzer was the top overall projected pitcher and one of the top values. Ownership projections will certainly have to be reconfigured in his absence.

Lauer is outside the top seven projected point totals on either site, but projection systems are often extremely slow to pick up on actual talent changes. Regression is simply always built in. However, Lauer is now a flame throwing, power pitcher because the Brewers needed more of those. He’s struck out 24 of his last 50 batters with a 17.5 SwStr% and owns a 31.2 K-BB% through four starts. Three of five barrels (9.4%) have left the yard and while all estimators are above his 1.93 ERA, a 3.08 DRA is the only one that even reaches three. Problematically, he’s in a difficult park, facing a difficult offense (Braves 110 wRC+, but 25.5 K% vs LHP this year) with winds blowing fairly strongly out to left. Perhaps, most importantly, He carries little weather related risk. For more on the other top pitchers tonight, including the top two projected arms overall, see Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

When thinking about potential upside with a cost below $9K on the mound tonight, Alex Cobb has to immediately come to mind. He struck out 10 of the 21 Padres he faced in his first start with a 16.9 SwStr%. Five of his nine batted balls were on the ground without a single line drive or barrel. Cobb threw only his sinker or split-finger 95% of the time and why not? The sinker held a spring training velocity spike of nearly two mph above last year. He’s in a very pitcher friendly park tonight in New York too. However, the game is currently color coded Orange in the forecast and carries great risk to starting pitchers. Hopefully, we get a more favorable update later in the afternoon.

Eric Lauer is another spring training velocity increaser whose spike held through his first start. Averaging more than 94 mph on his fastball, he struck out five of 19 Orioles, but did so with just a 6.7 SwStr% and as many ground balls (two) as barrels. Lauer has a career 12.9 K-BB%, but is up to 15.6% since the start of last season, over which he carries estimators a bit above four. Lauer costs just $7.1K on FD against the Pirates (104 wRC+ L7 days). PlateIQ projections suggest he could be a great value on either site tonight, which is impressive, considering he costs $1.8K more on DK. In just his sixth start since his rookie season (2015), Michael Lorenzen struck out seven of 20 Marlins (14.6 SwStr%), throwing his sinker, four-seamer, cutter, slider and changeup all more than 10% of the time. He faces the Astros in Houston’s home opener though. Five of nine projected batters have a strikeout rate below 18% vs RHP since last season.

Huascar Ynoa produced an exciting 20.2 K-BB% last season, but the contact profile was a bit of a mess (9.1% Barrels/BBE, 90.7 mph EV, 14 HRs in 91 IP). This seemed to follow him into his first start, in which he struck out four of 22 Nationals (12.5 SwStr%), though he also walked two. Contact neutral estimators are in the mid-threes since last season, though his xERA jumps well above four. The problem here is the Dodger lineup (130 wRC+ vs RHP this season, 142 wRC+ overall L7 days). Kyle Hendricks has struck out 11 of 45 batters (14.3 SwStr%) with a 53.6 Whiff% on his changeup through two starts. But he’s also walked seven with just a 38.5 GB% and 90.8 mph EV. He costs just $6.6K on DK against the Rays at home, but has considerable weather concerns. Nick Lodolo costs $6K on either site. In his first major league start, the Guardians took him deep twice and walked three times. It took him 24 batters to record just 12 outs, striking out just four with a 7.6 SwStr%, but he did keep the ball on the ground at a 53.3% rate, allowing just an 81.4 mph EV with only a single barrel. Lodolo only has 10.2 innings above AA, but produced a 34.1 K-BB% in 44 innings at that level last year. Most projection systems have him between a four and four and a half ERA this year. He gets a park upgrade in San Diego tonight and isn’t the worst lottery ticket on a potentially chaotic slate.

On a slate that is pretty lackluster at SP, it might make some sense to spend down at the position, especially if you are trying to get heavy exposure to Coors. Eric Lauer can help you do that, priced at just $6.2k on Draftkings tonight. Lauer has had a slightly below average season with a 4.32 ERA / 4.73 xFIP / 4.79 SIERA, 18.3% K rate and 6.7% BB rate. He does keep the ball on the ground a decent amount (44.8% GB rate) and has done a decent job limiting power (1 HR/9, 7% barrel rate) which has lead to a .322 xwOBA allowed, right around league average. Lauer is in Pitcher-friendly Petco tonight to face the Cardinals, who have been miserable at the plate over the past month with a league worst 74 wRC+. On the season, St. Louis has just an 89 wRC+ with a 21% K rate vs. left-handed pitching. Although he is lacking upside given the low K rate, Lauer has a good chance of hitting value tonight at his low price and is especially intriguing with how few SP options there are tonight. The Cardinals have a 4.37 implied line vs. Lauer and the Padres.

Eric Lauer allows too much contact in the zone (91.5%) and maybe slightly too much hard contact overall (9.2% Barrels/BBE). Otherwise, he’s been reasonably useful for the Padres to this point. However, he has had issues with RHBs (.332 wOBA, 41 Hard%, 35.8 GB% last calendar year) giving some value to a few Dodger bats, who hit LHP extremely well. Enrique Hernandez (132 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) should be in the leadoff spot again. Justin Turner (155 wRC+, .214 ISO) is still just $4K on DraftKings. David Freese (145 wRC+, .185 ISO) is still making a living hitting LHP.

Despite two non-ace starters in last nights matchup, the Padres and Reds combined for just 5 runs in 11 innings. Their matchup tonight projects for a similar result as both teams have just 3.5 implied runs. It is rare to find a starter whose opponent is projected for 3.5 runs or less under $8k on Draftkings, but Eric Lauer is just $7k tonight. Lauer has been serviceable with a 7.36 K/9, 2.05 BB/9 and 4.32 xFIP. The Reds have been pretty mediocre vs. LHP with a 84 wRC+ and the 6th worst K rate at 26.6%. Tonight they’ll be without their best hitter in Joey Votto. Their lineup has run cold of late, just one hitter in tonight’s lineup (Tucker Barnhart) has an xwOBA greater than .320 over the last 10 days. Lauer also gets to work with a pitcher friendly umpire in Chris Guccione. Lauer doesn’t have crazy upside but is way too cheap for this matchup and has a very good chance to hit value tonight.

The Dodgers are once again in play today vs. Jhoulys Chacin in Dodger stadium. Chacin has a .335 xwOBA allowed in away games since 2015 compared to a .307 xwOBA in home games. He’s also much worse vs. LHB (.354 xwOBA vs. LHB, .291 xwOBA vs. RHB) over that same span. Thus, there are plenty of Dodger bats in play. Cody Bellinger stayed hot with another HR last night an is up to a .566 xwOBA on the year. Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy should all be in the Dodgers’ lineup this afternoon and are always good bets for production vs. RHP. A.J. Pollock has started somewhat slow, but can be had at a discount at just $3.8k on DK.

Another stack option for the late slate are the D-Backs at home vs. Eric Lauer. Lauer hasn’t shown much to suggest he’s a good MLB pitcher. He has pretty even platoon splits and has given up a .332 xwOBA and a 1.26 HR/9 over 129 innings in his career. The D-Backs have plenty of good options at reasonable prices in their projected lineup. Eduardo Escobar leads the team with a .397 xwOBA over the last 7 days. Wilmer Flores (.231) has been struggling but is discounted and has been solid in his career vs. LHP with a 107 wRC+. Adam Jones has seen a resurgence this year with a 157 wRC+ and projects to lead off.

Eric Lauer looks like he may be a popular SP2 on DraftKings tonight and why not. He’s in a great park (San Francisco) in a great matchup (Giants team 55 wRC+ this year) and costs a reasonable $7.2K. He’s even already thrown six shutout innings against them. Players should beware the potential lack of upside here though. Lauer has averaged less than five innings per start in his career and has thrown only 145 pitches through two starts. He’s also struck out just five of the 46 batters he’s faced this year because batters have made contact with 97.9% of the pitches they’ve swung at in the strike zone. The Giants are just implied for 3.67 runs, so Lauer may keep runs off the board, but he’ll likely not do so for very long or with very many strikeouts. Players might want a bit more upside, especially for GPPs when paying more than $7K.