James Paxton Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Temperatures are expected to be over 30 degrees cooler in New York than Atlanta today and while there appears to be a strong wind, it seems to be blowing across the field, according to weather edge. This still may be the game players want to target for offense tonight. Jose Berrios has both the second lowest strikeout rate (23.2%) and aEV (86.5 mph) on the board today. His 3.68 ERA and 3.85 FIP are quality marks as well, but his 4.44 DRA is actually worst on the board. And while it’s still a better than average mark, his .303 xwOBA is also just one of two above .300 today. In fact, batters from either side of the plate had a .303 xwOBA against him this year with an actual wOBA within three points. Though he seemed to straighten himself out in September (two runs or less in three of his last four starts), Berrios did allow at least three runs in each of his previous six starts. This Yankee lineup is completely stacked. Virtually anyone in it could bat third or eighth. Among those projected, only Didi Gregorius (83 wRC+, .187 ISO) was below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Giancarlo Stanton (.156) and DJ LeMahieu (.166) along with Gregorius were below a .200 ISO against RHP this year.

James Paxton gets the ball for the Yankees to start this series. He had an amazing September (1.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP, .245 xwOBA, 30.6 K%), but he also left his last start of the season after a single inning due to glute tightness. He calls it a non-issue and could have amazing upside for just $6.9K in this spot, but the Twins had a 126 wRC+ vs LHP that’s the highest split on the board today. Paxton at less than 100% could be a problem here. The projected lineup for the Twins features four batters above a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO vs LHP this year, all with more than 120 PAs: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron. Beware that the Yankees do have an abundance of quality right-handers they can bring out of the pen if need be here, but these Twins bats were also very strong against RHP as well.

It’s quite difficult to navigate the pitching on tonight’s slate. Among the several pitchers, including many younger arms, who have had their workloads more limited for most of this month, many of the top pitchers are pitching for teams who can’t much better their post-season positions and are merely tuning up for the big show next week. Look no further than the highest strikeout rate on the board, Tyler Glasnow (33.5%), who fits both categories as he works his way back from injury.

James Paxton (29.5%) and Walker Buehler (29.1%) are the only other pitchers above a 26 K% on the board tonight. Paxton has allowed a single ER over his last four starts and is in a high upside spot against a Texas offense that struggles against LHP and strikes out a ton. However, he’s still a fly ball prone pitcher (38.6%) in Texas in a game where the Yankees are less invested in the outcome than in having Paxton ready to go against the Twins next week.

Buehler is in a very similar spot, but his matchup is matchup is similarly advantageous in a much better park. He pitches in San Francisco, where the Giants have a 78 wRC+ and 9.3 HR/FB. The projected lineup for the Giants includes just two players above .190 ISO against RHP and just three above a .325 wOBA. You may not have even noticed that Buehler hasn’t reached 100 pitches in seven straight starts. That’s because he’s been efficient enough to complete seven innings twice in that span. In fact, he’s gone at least seven innings 11 times this year and has only six starts where he’s thrown more than 100 pitches, three with more than 102. Buehler has shown the ability to get deep into games without a ton of pitches and this seems like a spot where he could do so again. Still, it’s a risk paying up for any of tonight’s high priced arms considering the circumstances.

There are several marginal, but no single great pitching option on a five game, Wednesday night slate, featuring weather concerns in Baltimore and Boston where Eduardo Rodriguez and James Paxton are pitching. The games in Seattle and Arizona features no weather concerns, but some interesting pitchers. Zac Gallen makes his first start for the Diamondbacks, having struck out 17 of his last 52 batters, allowing just two runs over his last 14 innings. His 28.5 K% and .291 xwOBA have come against a decent quality of opposition. His estimators run around a full run or higher above his 2.27 ERA due to an 11.9 BB%, .259 BABIP, 80.9 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB. While Arizona isn’t very power friendly, it’s still likely a park downgrade for Gallen coming from Miami and we can except to see him regress a bit. He faces a nearly league average Philadelphia offense with a 22.7 K% and 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP at a cost within $600 of $9K on either site. An argument can be made that Joey Lucchesi is the more interesting arm despite merely a league average strikeout rate (22.8%) and the completion of six innings in just two of his last seven starts. While nothing further stands out in his 4.23 ERA, 4.42 SIERA, 3.83 DRA or .308 xwOBA, Lucchesi is facing an offense with a team 52 wRC+, 32 K% and 5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. A look at tonight’s lineup in PlateIQ reveals a combined average 29.4 K% vs LHP this year, including seven of the nine batters with more than 60 PAs against southpaws this year. Each of the first five batters have struck out at least 24% of the time against LHP this year. Lucchesi may not give you the workload you want, but costs just $7.3K on FanDuel and is $600 less than Gallen on DraftKings.

James Paxton struck out nine of 21 Red Sox and six of 19 Rockies, but was hammered by both teams (14 R in 7.1 IP with five HRs). He’s allowed some hard contact (89.3 mph aEV), but the .371 BABIP is surreal without anything to strongly support it (22.4 LD%, 38.4 B%, 12.9 IFFB%, 81 Z-Contact%), while his .308 xwOBA is a full 50 points below his actual mark. Over the last month, his xwOBA has actually improved (.289) and is 136 points below his actual mark over that span. The Red Sox are improving against LHP (101 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 17.1 HR/FB) and the hottest offense on the board by wRC+ (143 last seven days), but the latter is not substantiated by peripherals at all (21.1 K-BB% last seven days). Looking at Paxton’s velocity, his 96.3 mph average last time out was tied for his second best mark of the season. This leads us to a scenario where Paxton may be under-valued. This is still a difficult matchup in a difficult park, but with elite upside and the likelihood of positive regression, there appears to be value in a price tag below $9K on either site, perhaps with low ownership as well after what the Red Sox did to him at Fenway last time out. Encouragingly, the total for this game has dropped since opening despite what appears a lack of public backing.

James Paxton’s 28.9 K% is still third best on the board, but it comes with a 9.1 BB% and 23.1 Hard-Soft%. Although he’s not allowed a lot of Barrels/BBE (6.9%), Statcast confirms the hard contact issues (88.9 mph aEV, 38.6% 95+ mph EV). Fewer strikeouts, more walks, a negative park shift and we see why Paxton has failed to live up to some lofty expectations for his new team. He did, however, strike out 11 Rays last time out. It’s the first time he’s passed seven strikeouts in a start since April. Part of that is injuries. In eight previous starts since April, he’d faced more than 23 batters just twice as well. This last outing was a great sign, as he generated swings and misses on 17.2% of his. Another factor in his favor is that while none of his estimators are more than 38 points removed from his 4.01 ERA, Paxton also owns an unsupported .358 BABIP despite a 13 IFFB% and 39.5 GB%. This, along with a .299 xwOBA that’s 33 points below his actual mark this season, suggests there may be a bit of poor luck involved. Conditions aren’t ideal for pitchers at Yankee Stadium tonight, but the Rays do have a 95 wRC+ and 26.1 K% vs LHP. Paxton’s upside in combination with a price tag of $9.3K or less are worth a shot in a high upside spot, considering his last effort against this offense. That said, destroyer of LHP, Tommy Pham (159 wRC+, .415 xwOBA last calendar year) also merits a spot in daily fantasy lineups tonight.