Jeffrey Springs Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

This will be just the third home start in his last 10 for Jeffrey Springs, whose only negative attribute as a starter is that he rarely exceeds five innings. He’s struck out 25.9% of batters with a 4.8 BB% and just 17 barrels (7.4%) since his first start. His 2.73 ERA as a starter is a bit below estimators (3.35 FIP/3.19 xFIP), due to an 83.1 LOB%. Despite the light workload, Springs is tonight’s top projected value on either site for $8K or less, due to the negative run environment and great matchup. The Angels have an 82 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs LHP this season.

After a rough first outing for the Phillies against Washington, Noah Syndergaard has followed up with two straight Quality Starts (13 IP – 5 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 10 K – 52 BF) against the Marlins and Reds. The strikeout rate is up to an almost league average 20.9% over his last nine starts and the Phillies have him throwing his slider harder (11.7 SwStr% last start). He’s managed contact well enough all season (87.3 mph EV, 34.7% 95+ mph EV) with great control (5.8 BB%), so any improvement to an 18.3 K%, should push non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.15 xFIP to a 4.33 xERA below four. The harder slider should have a positive effect against a Cincinnati offense that’s been fifth worst in the league against the pitche this year (-0.55 wSL/C). They also have just an 84 wRC+ and 24.2 K% (17.0 K-BB%) vs RHP this season. Projecting as the fourth best value on either site for $8.5K or less, Syndergaard is probably single pitcher site usable on this board, though perhaps still lacking the upside of more expensive pitchers.

Projecting as the third best DraftKings value ($8.5K), Sonny Gray tied a season high, striking out 10 of 22 Royals last time out and completed six innings for just the third time in 11 starts. His 24.3 K% is still his lowest mark since his Yankee days, while a 44.3 GB% is a career low, though his 7.4 BB% is his lowest since Oakland. The entire package (87.4 mph EV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE) results in estimators ranging from a 3.33 FIP to a 3.69 SIERA, just a bit above his 3.11 ERA. The Rangers have a 24 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP this season.

Not projecting particularly strongly, after striking out a single Yankee in his first start for St Louis, Jordan Montgomery has struck out 16 of his last 46 batters. One would think that the Cardinals have figured out a way to harness his 13.5 SwStr%, but they’ve actually increased his sinker usage (18.4 Whiff%), which makes some sense, considering their elite defense (17 Runs Prevented). Montgomery is now up to a league average 21.4 K%, pairing it with an elite 4.9 BB% and just 6.3% Barrels/BBE. His 3.29 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.48 xFIP to a 4.18 DRA, but it’s not uncommon for Cardinal pitchers to beat their estimators for the reason mentioned. With some potentially pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight, the Cubs have a 98 wRC+ and 24.0 K% vs LHP. Montgomery may be a bit undervalued in this spot. Beyond these four, the lower half of the board is probably not a place you want to spend a lot of time on tonight.

There is plenty of expensive pitching on a 14 game slate on Friday, but with tough matchups for many of them, players could be justified in wanting to look for some middle of the board upside in some more attractive matchups and where you probably want to start is with Jeffrey Springs. The four runs Jeffrey he allowed in his last start in Baltimore represent one-quarter of his season total. He’s completed six innings in just two starts, so it seems the Rays are going to cap him around 90 pitches, but there hasn’t been much drop off since entering the rotation. In fact, his bullpen and rotation peripherals are almost exactly the same, although we’re only talking about 10 innings out of the pen. Springs is carrying a 20.6 K-BB% with a 13.7 SwStr%, 79.0 Z-Contact% and 86.9 mph EV. The 89.1 LOB% is unsustainable, but estimators still run an impressive range from a 2.98 FIP to a 3.59 DRA. He’s in a great spot (Pirates 84 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs LHP), where our largest concern is workload, which probably makes Springs a better value on DraftKings, even for $200 more ($8.5K), though he’s currently the top projected value and second best overall projection on both sites.

The current second best projected value on FanDuel is Dylan Bundy for $7K. The seven batters he struck out in Arizona last time out exceeded his total from his previous three starts combined (six). It was also his first Quality Start of the year and just the third time he’s completed six innings. Bundy has allowed multiple home runs and at least three barrels in four of his last eight starts. Ironically, even with 11.2% Barrels/BBE on the season, his 3.83 xERA is his only estimator below four, although all are more than half a run below his 5.17 ERA (69 LOB%, 13.7 HR/FB). Again, we love the matchup at a low price. The Rockies have an 83 wRC+ (21.5 K%) vs RHP and 81 wRC+ on the road. They do, however, have the third best team wRC+ in the league over the last week (143).

Nobody has pitched as well as Alex Cobb (27.2 K%, 62.4 GB%, 86.5 mph EV, 2.5% Barrels/BBE) and had as poor results to show for it. His 5.62 ERA exceeds every single estimator by at least two and one-quarter runs. He’s allowed five home runs on just three barrels! He’s far underpriced at just $7.6K for his home matchup against the Reds (68 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP), but may have workload issues.

There’s nothing shiny or even interesting about Merrill Kelly’s numbers this season, including an 11.4 K-BB% and average ground ball rate and contact profile. Home run suppression (5.1 HR/FB) is responsible for a 3.26 FIP, while his 3.59 xERA is not much higher than a 3.46 ERA, though all other estimators are above four. He’s a boring pitcher, who costs less than $8K on DraftKings against the Tigers though (68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP).

If you’re looking for something in a DK SP2 for less than $6.5K, working mostly out of the bullpen, Andre Pallante has struck out just 10 of 61 batters in three spot starts, while also walking seven. His 6.1 K-BB% on the season isn’t very inspiring, as he hasn’t gotten many chases (45.1 Z-O-Swing%), though there is a lot to like in the contact profile with a 61.6 GB% and just four barrels (three home runs) allowed. A 3.55 xERA is an exception to estimators otherwise right around four. He costs just $5.5K in a decent home matchup against the Cubs (99 wRC+, 23 K%) and projects as tonight’s third best point per dollar value currently. Chris Flexen has allowed just 10 runs over his last 29 innings, but has only completed six innings twice over his last five starts. It’s all a bit of smoke and mirrors though, because with just an 8.6 K-BB% on the season, he has to really on the contact profile for success and that’s not happening either (33 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE). What is happening is that 14 of his 24 barrels have stayed in the park, perhaps pushing his 4.23 ERA more than half a run below all non-FIP estimators. However, he’s also very cheap ($6.2K) in an even higher upside matchup (Angels 105 wRC+, but board high 26.2 K% vs RHP). Lastly, when talking about peak matchups, we’re always looking for the A’s (70 wRC+, 23.9 K%, 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP) and that matchup falls to a very cheap Zack Greinke tonight. He has just a 6.7 K-BB% and he’s only walked 10 batters over 51.2 innings. With a high of five strikeouts, accomplished just once, Greinke has just a single Quality Start, in which he struck out single batter in St Louis. His 5.05 ERA matches his 5.03 SIERA without a single estimator below four and a half, but running as high as a 5.72 xERA. Are the A’s enough to push him to greater heights? Greinke is a top seven projected value on DraftKings.

Tuesday night’s pitching board has a little bit of everything. Ace matchups in good and bad spots, but also some lower priced value with some upside. Although it’s a tough matchup against the Cardinals (board high 125 wRC+, board low 18.1 K% vs LHP), Jeffrey Springs still pitches in a negative run environment and pricing hasn’t caught up to the performance yet. A fully stretched out Springs has now struck out 20 of 64 batters over his last three starts. Not only does he maintain proud ownership of a 22.4 K-BB%, but his 15.5 SwStr% and 78 Z-Contact% are both best on the board and even when contact is made, it’s generally pretty weak (85.9 mph EV). He doesn’t have a single estimator that reaches three and a half, despite a 12.8 HR/FB with five of seven barrels (7.4%) leaving the yard. He’s the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings for just $6.3K, though $2.4K more expensive on FanDuel.

The second best projected value on DraftKings ($6.9K) and top one on FanDuel ($7.0K) is Garrett Whitlock. What we like here is that even though it’s a positive run environment, Anaheim is a park upgrade from Fenway, while the home team (110 wRC+, but 24.9 K% vs RHP) has been slumping terribly (40 wRC+, 23.6 K%, 1.7 HR/FB last seven days). However, Whitlock has been struggling himself, failing to strike out any of the 20 Reds he faced last time out, but at least he didn’t walk any either. The strikeout rate is down to just 15% (8.8 SwStr%) over his last five with a 4.70 ERA closely matching estimators over this span. Season estimators still range tightly between a 3.31 DRA and 3.78 xERA, though the starting experiment may be coming to an end sooner rather than later. Tread carefully here.

Additional low priced arms, who project for solid value, mostly in a DK SP2 kind of way, included Kyle Bradish ($5.1K), German Marquez ($5.3K) and Mitch White ($6.1K). Bradish has shown strong skills with a 24.3 K% through seven starts, but has allowed a home run in each of them. Though eight of 11 barrels (11.6%) leaving the yard does seem a bit unfortunate, it’s tough to make excuses for a 92.3 mph EV and 45.3% 95+ mph EV. Contact neutral estimators separate themselves from inclusive runs with the former being below four and the latter above five, though all more than a run below his 6.82 ERA. The Cubs have a 23 K% vs RHP, but just a team 3.8 K-BB% over the last week.

While it’s true that Marquez has only started three games away from Coors this year, he’s allowed 16 runs (12 earned) over those starts, although all 11 home runs and 11 of 14 barrels have come at home. All 11 of his barrels leaving the park at home is a bit unlucky, there’s really not much good you can say about an 18.3 K% with 48.4% of his contact at a 95 mph EV or higher. At least 51.1% of it has been on the ground. Non-FIP estimators (20.8 HR/FB) are more than two runs below his 6.71 ERA, dropping as low as a 3.88 xFIP. Any park that’s not Coors is an upgrade, though the Giants have been really good against RHP (110 wRC+, 21.9 K%).

After striking out just four of 27 over his first two starts, Mitch White Struck out seven of 21 last time out, although competition (Pirates) and has to be taken into account and he’s walked five of 48 as a starter. Taking the entire season body of work into account, a 4.84 xERA is his only estimator not more than half a run below his 4.79 ERA, due to the 8.8% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. The White Sox have just an 82 wRC+ but 19.2 K% vs RHP this year. On FanDuel, there’s little reason or incentive to drop below top of the board arms.

When we’re talking about today’s top projected point per dollar pitching values, one particular matchup in Texas stands out. Both pitchers project as top three values on either site. Jeffrey Springs is holding his strikeout rate (26.8%) since being inserted into the rotation, though he’s only been fully stretched out for a start or two or at least whatever that means for the Rays, as they’ve cut him off at exactly 80 pitches each of the last two times out. He’s only even walked a batter in one of his five starts. As for the contact profile, 6.1% Barrels/BBE seems like it might even be too high for his 85.6 mph EV. Estimators are all more than a run above his 1.62 ERA (.213 BABIP, 92.1 LOB%), but no higher than a 3.23 xFIP. For their part, the Rangers have punished LHP this year (113 wRC+, 19.8 K%, 15.3 HR/FB) and the everyone they’ve faced over the last week (150 wRC+), but Springs has been so good and costs just $6.2K on DraftKings, while Texas is a negative run environment with the roof closed, as it normally is.

You can take the pitcher out of Coors, but you can’t take the Coors out of the pitcher. Jon Gray is producing a very similar 22.4 K% and 9.0 BB% to his career rate (actually it’s 2.7 points lower this year) with a 46.4 GB% (46.7% career). His ERA (5.56) remains well above his estimators. Many thought leaving Coors would help cure him of that particular malady (4.63 career ERA with estimators below four), but it has not. His worst estimator is still just a 4.34 xERA. The Rays have a 102 wRC+, but 24.8 K% vs RHP and have really been slumping (75 wRC+ last seven days). Gray costs no more than $7.5K on either site.

Garret Whitlock is another pitcher who projects well from a point per dollar standpoint at a cost of exactly $7K on either site, but strikeouts and velocity are trending down as he has been fully stretched out. He’s struck out just 10 of his last 63 batters with an 8.1 SwStr%. While the other properties of his profile (6.8 BB%, 43.8 GB%, 90.6 mph EV) remain intact as a starter, you have to wonder about those estimators below three and a half. The Reds have an 85 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs RHP, but a 118 wRC+ and 10.3 K-BB% over the last week. Fenway is a hitter friendly park with a hitter friendly umpire tonight, but with some pitcher friendly weather. Whitlock may be a bit more of a risk than projections currently suggest, but still may have the upside to succeed for GPP players.

Jeffrey Springs makes his first major league start tonight and his first at any level since A-ball last season. He's exceeded 40 pitches in just two of his outings with a high of 51. It will be a bullpen effort for the Rangers and that bullpen does have a 15.7 K-BB% over the last month, but a 4.80 FIP and a terrible park. The Angels have a 5.15 run line that's third best on the board, but Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .292 ISO vs LHP this season) is surrounded by AAA bats with Ohtani and Upton on the bench. Kole Calhoun (74 wRC+, .104 ISO), David Fletcher (68 wRC+, .091 ISO) and Andrelton Simmons (124 wRC+, .145 ISO) fill out the top half of this lineup. All are fine plays in this environment and only likely to face the lefty once. Keep an eye out for Kevin's upcoming forecast tonight for potential weather issues in this game.