Junior Guerra Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Padres are one of just two teams below four implied runs (3.69), but Junior Guerra has a 3.42 ERA well below his estimators due to 79.1 LOB% that's been dropping lately. He's allowed 18 runs and five HRs over his last 22 innings, but considering the position he is in relative to other pitchers on this slate, the guess is that he'll be popular for less than $8K with a decent strikeout rate (22.8%) against the Padres (80 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP). There's probably nothing wrong with that today, but players should note that batters from either side of the plate are with a single point of a .345 xwOBA against him since last season and the park doesn't really favor pitchers. Eric Hosmer (129 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and the very cheap Franmil Reyes (92 wRC+, .209 ISO) in the cleanup spot are worth considering, the latter with the top ISO in the lineup vs RHP over the last 365 days.

Junior Guerra has a estimators more than a run above his 2.82 SIERA due mostly to an 83.3% strand rate. While his BABIP is .259, the Brewers have a team .267 allowed. While he has a .330 xwOBA and 9.8 HR/FB with just 6.3% Barrels/BBE, his 42.8% 95+ mph EV is the second worst mark on the board. There is some room for a surging Cincinnati offense (127 wRC+, 4.3 K-BB% last seven days) to do some damage. By either wOBA or xwOBA, Guerra has virtually no platoon split since last season, though the latter is exactly 28 points higher than the actual in either case. The Reds have four above average bats against RHP over the last calendar year, three with power, and all four lineup nicely in the middle of the lineup: Joey Votto (179 wRC+, .216 ISO), Scooter Gennett (134 wRC+, .217 ISO), Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .220 ISO), Jesse Winker (138 wRC+, .167 ISO). All four have at least a 130 wRC+ over the last week as well.

Junior Guerra has allowed just six HRs this season, but his 44% 95+ mph EV is worst on this board and along with a 38.9 GB% suggests the possibility of more long balls to come. The Cubs produce a lineup with three batters exceeding a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .306 ISO) is the only one of a group including Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras to exceed a .240 ISO though. They bat three through six in the order tonight with a rejuvenated Jason Heyward (105 wRC+, .140 ISO) perhaps the top bargain, hitting ahead of them for $3.5K or less. Batters from either side have an xwOBA within three points of .350 against Guerra since last season.

Junior Guerra has 2.65 ERA well below his 4.15 SIERA and even a 3.70 FIP due to a .252 BABIP, 82.5 LOB% and 8.2 HR/FB. An 89.2 mph aEV and 42.5% 95+ mph EV don't really support the something not seen in his peripherals as his .327 xwOBA is not terrible, but 50 points above his actual mark as well. He also has a .378 xwOBA on the road since last season that's highest on the board. While he's held batters from either side to a near league average wOBA since 2017, xwOBA raises that mark to within a point of .350 on both ends. The first four batters in the Cleveland lineup all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .215 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Only Michael Brantley has a wRC+ below 200 among those four over the last week, but he has the highest hard hit rate over that span (70%).

The Cardinals have a 4.32 Vegas run line that's fourth among eight teams on the afternoon slate, but well more than a half run behind the third highest team. This could have the effect of depressing the ownership of a few bats with some potential against Junior Guerra, who has an ERA well over a run below his estimators due to a .250 BABIP, 81.1 LOB% and 8.8 HR/FB. His 90.1 mph aEV that's second worst for the entire day, resulting in a .348 xwOBA, may paint a more accurate picture. While batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .327 wOBA against him since last season, xwOBA raises both above .350. Both have a ground ball rate below 40%, RHBs have a hard hit rate above that. Matt Carpenter (130 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a premium play for less than $4K on either site. He has a 226 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week. Jose Martinez (121 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (122 wRC+, .208 ISO) are reasonable plays at a similar or cheaper cost as well. In fact, without Tommmy Pham in the lineup, not a single St Louis bat reaches $4K on either site.

A 4.7 implied run line for the Tribe would have been near the top of a full board on Tuesday, but isn't even in the top half of the Wednesday afternoon slate on either board. Junior Guerra got blown up for five runs in five innings last time out and most people who know ERA estimators could have predicted something like this coming. All of them still remain two runs higher than his current 2.33 ERA, while they'd likely be even higher than that if his 8.0 SwStr% continues to be unsupported by a 22.3 K%. Edwin Encarnacion gets the day off in an NL park, but that moves Yonder Alonso (126 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) up to fifth in the lineup. He's the salary relief in this lineup. Jose Ramirez (148 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .192 ISO) have been the offensive stars against RHP. Francisco Lindor (105 wRC+, .222 ISO) has been the only other competent batter. All bat from the left-side, though Guerra has a bit of a reverse split going on with batters 20 points higher by wOBA and xwOBA from the right side with a 37.2 Hard% since last season. However, LHBs still have a .336 xwOBA with just one-third of contact on the ground. Carlos Carrasco is the top pitching option on the four game FanDuel Slate ($9.5K) and a pivot from a much more expensive Gerrit Cole on DraftKings, even at $11.5K. The Brewers have a FanDuel slate low 3.8 implied run line (second lowest on six game DK slate). After three straight starts of seven innings or more, he's failed to even complete six in either of his last two (11 runs, 3 HRs), but does have exactly seven strikeouts in three of his last four. His 13.4 SwStr% is a top five mark for the entire day and should lead to better than his current 22.4 K%. The Brewers have severely under-performed and have an 89 wRC+ both at home (26.8 K%) and vs RHP (23.8 K%). They continue to miss a couple of key bats in the middle of their lineup (Thames and Braun), but do have three batters who have hit RHP very well over the last calendar year. Christian Yelich (131 wRC+, .176 ISO) and Domingo Santana (130 wRC+, .197 ISO) are both above a 190 wRC+ over the last seven days. Travis Shaw (137 wRC+, .257 ISO) is around the $3.5K mark on either site. Carrasco has held RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last season, while LHBs are slightly above.

The Reds have just a team 3.96 implied run line in Milwaukee against Junior Guerra, but they are facing a pitcher who has allowed batters a .340+ wOBA and .350+ xwOBA from either side of the plate since last season. With a ground ball rate below 40%, we can look for some upside in several Cincinnati bats with pop in power friendly park. Joey Votto (160 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2017) hasn't gotten it going this season yet, but it's safe to say the man has established a track record. Jesse Winker (152 wRC+, .203 ISO) returns in the two spot. Scooter Gennett (134 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Adam Duvall (84 wRC+, .211 ISO) round out a high powered quartet, with all except Votto around the $3K mark or less on either site. Duvall has a 44.4 Hard% over the last week and RHBs have actually hit Guerra harder (37.3% to 30.2%) since last season.

Junior Guerra has a 3.11 ERA, but 5.78 SIERA through seven starts with just a 3.1 K-BB%. While he has held LHBs to a .277 wOBA since last season that comes with a 36.8 Hard%. He's due for a beating and this Cincinnati offense has the left-handed power to administer one. Joey Votto (162 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Scott Schebler (112 RC+, .223 ISO) have excelled against RHP since last season, while Scooter Gennett (148 wRC+, .293 ISO) has done so this year and even Tucker Barnhart (not in projected lineup) has been crushing the ball lately (399 wRC+ last seven days). Junior Guerra likes to live outside against LHBs according to Plate IQ and Votto and Schebler are hot in those zones as well. Guerra also likes to throw a splitter that Schebler has some success against. To cap it off, Cincinnati is one of the highlighted offenses by our daily Trendspotting article (premium subscription required) in which key batted ball trends are looked at. Adam Duvall hits RHP well (103 wRC+, .250 ISO since last year) and grades out well in that article as well.

Guerra, who has a 25.7% K%, has only made two starts this season and pitched a total of 8.2 innings as he's been on the DL since straining his calf on opening day. He made his second start against Arizona last Friday and picked up five strikeouts and allowed just one earned run in 5.2 innings of work. On a slate filled with big strikeout pitchers, Guerra should come with very low ownership in tournaments, but he may be worth a shot in GPPs on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings at his low price tag - he's $5.9k on DK. His $8.1k salary on FanDuel appears to be too high, especially for a one-pitcher site as there are too many elite options available. Although we have a small sample of 35 batters faced this season, he's done very well, limiting them to a 67.2% Contact%, 27.3% Soft%, and 22.7% Hard%. All three of those figures are the best on the slate. If we consider the last two seasons, those numbers rise to 76.0%, 20.4%, and 33.2%, respectively. However, his 2.83 ERA since 2016 is the lowest among available pitchers tonight. His SIERA is towards the back of the pack (4.37) and his BABIP has been .242 during the stretch. This season, it's a measly .100, so he is in danger of seeing his numbers rise. However, if he can keep his SwStr% and Soft% numbers up, he could still deliver a nice value tonight. That may be a tall order as the Mets K% against RHP is just 19.1% this season and their lineup is loaded with strong LHB, who have combined for a 35.0% Hard% against righties. Choosing Guerra is undoubtedly a high-risk play, but he allows stronger bats and he's been effective so far this season. Guerra currently projects fourth in terms of points-per-dollar on DK.