Kevan Smith Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

In 11 career games as a starting pitcher, Josh Smith has a 6.70 ERA with a 5.83 xFIP, 4.6% K-BB and 1.82 (!) WHIP. He’s also allowed a .377 xwOBA and 88.8 MPH aEV in those starts. With the exception of Mike Trout, the Angels have a nice selection of bats that have upside and are affordable. Mike Trout (.473 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Shohei Ohtani (.378), Kole Calhoun (.333), David Fletcher (.323), Brian Goodwin (.322), Justin Upton (.314), Kevan Smith (.302) and Albert Pujols (.299) are all in play tonight. Brian Goodwin (.410) has been the Angels’ hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks, followed by Trout with a .399 mark. Fletcher (projected to leadoff) and Upton (projected to bat 4th) are both available for just $3.7k on Draftkings tonight. Calhoun ($4.4k), Pujols ($4k) and Kevan Smith ($2.9k) also look like nice values on DK. Ohtani ($4.9k) and Trout ($5.5k) are by far the two most expensive bats here but could be well worth it as both have continued to mash RHP this year. All Angels’ bats project for decently low ownership tonight, making them an intriguing GPP stack.

Brian Johnson has not exceeded 19 batters in any of his outings this year, including three starts, so he’s only likely to go through the lineup twice, but that may be enough for the Angels to cause significant damage. For his career, almost 500 batted balls recorded by Statcast, opponents have barreled 8.8% of contact. To exacerbate this issue, the Angels have just a 17.9 K% vs LHP this year and Fenway is a highly positive run environment. It gets even worse for Johnson. RHBs own a .417 wOBA (.392 xwOBA) against him over the last calendar year. The outlook for Mike Trout (151 wRC+, .272 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is tremendous tonight, but Albert Pujols (112 wRC+, .230 ISO) has been no slouch with the platoon advantage either and costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. For those looking to punt the catcher position, it’s not a large sample, but Kevan Smith (177 wRC+, .191 ISO, .419 xwOBA) costs just $3.3K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel for an offense implied for 5.32 runs.

Yusei Kikuchi has had an up and down rookie year which has ultimately amounted to a 4.43 ERA / 4.66 xFIP / 4.70 SIERA with an 11.7% K-BB. Kikuchi does have a decent .317 xwOBA allowed, but has surrendered a .333 xwOBA allowed over the past month along with a 5.57 xFIP, 6.09 SIERA and just a 5% K-BB. The Angels have been the MLB’s 3rd hottest hitting team over the past 10 days and have lots of good options in their lineup tonight. Mike Trout (.423 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kevan Smith (.417), Albert Pujols (.380), Kole Calhoun (.376) and David Fletcher (.365) have all been very solid options vs. LHP on the year and are in the projected lineup. David Fletcher is projected to leadoff for the Angels and costs just $4.2k on Draftkings. Cesar Puello is another option with a 223 wRC+ in 28 PA on the year, he costs just $4.1k. Trout has been the hottest hitter with a scorching .560 xwOBA over the past 10 days, followed by Puello at .440. The Angels have a healthy 5.00 implied line vs. Kikuchi and the M’s tonight.

Danny Duffy is making his debut tonight vs. the Angels after missing the start of 2019 with a shoulder injury. Duffy appeared in 155 innings in 2018, giving up a 4.88 ERA / 4.92 xFIP / 4.75 SIERA. Duffy was bad vs. RHP in 2018 with a .344 wOBA allowed, but much better vs. LHB with a .284 wOBA allowed. Fortunately, the Angels project to use 7 RHB vs. Duffy tonight, who is not likely to have his best stuff tonight as he shakes off the rust. Mike Trout (.412 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Kevan Smith (.400), Brian Goodwin (.343, just 44 PA), Kole Calhoun (.343), Albert Pujols (.321) and Andrelton Simmons (.315) project to be in the Angels’ lineup and are all in play. With the exception of Mike Trout, all the aforementioned players are available for $4.2k or less on Draftkings. Kevan Smith is an intriguing play at just $3.4k given his success vs. LHP, he also owns a .435 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Angels have a 4.64 implied total vs. Duffy and the Royals tonight.

The White Sox are hitting the ball well (112 team wRC+ last seven days) and have a healthy 4.79 implied run line against a southpaw who gets smashed by RHBs (.386 wOBA) in Francisco Liriano. There should be some interest in reasonably priced bats in their lineup tonight. Matt Davidson (158 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this season) and Tim Anderson (103 wRC+, .196 ISO) are the top bats here and most expensive with ideal lineup spots. Jose Rondon has few PAs against LHP, but bats second for less than $4K on DraftKings. Also all less than $4K on DraftKings or $2.5K on FanDuel are Welington Castillo (110 wRC+, .176 ISO), Kevan Smith (178 wRC+, .135 ISO) and Ryan LaMarre (125 wRC+, .127 ISO). Of course, Castillo and Smith are both catcher eligible bats.

It takes an extremely positive run environment and Yovani Gallardo to approach five implied runs for the White Sox (4.88). In two starts, Gallardo has allowed nine runs over 9.1 innings with three HRs, five walks and seven strikeouts. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .350 and .370 against him and he's not even generating ground balls at an above average rate any longer. There's some value in this White Sox lineup in this spot. Yoan Moncada (117 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Abreu (131 wRC+, .242 ISO) are the top bats with Avisail Garcia (110 wRC+, .150 ISO) and Daniel Palka (89 wRC+, .203 ISO) are the cheaper ones. Players looking for a catching punt can consider Kevan Smith (103 wRC+, .086 ISO), batting fifth.

Outside of a two-start anomaly his last two times on the mound against the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets, allowing two earned runs or less in each outing, Martin Perez has mostly been unable to keep up his magic act that has continuously frustrated daily fantasy players for the last couple of years. If unaware of this madness, Perez typically has had the uncanny ability to work himself out of jams and limit the overall damage to somewhat respectable totals in most of his outings. However, he began showing cracks in this aforementioned armor lately, allowing seven or more earned runs in back-to-back starts against the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins prior to his most recent rebound performances. So much of what makes Perez "successful" is his solid pitching profile to left-handed batters, evidenced by a 22.1% strikeout rate, 56.5% groundball rate, and 24.3% hard hit rate, all of which are above-average numbers. These skills are something he will have a nearly impossible time relying on Saturday night as the Chicago White Sox have just one lefty in their lineup this evening. His previously mentioned skillset takes a drastic downturn against right-handed batters, posting just a 12.4% strikeout rate in just over 100 innings this season while surrendering hard contact 37.2% of the time, leading to a lofty .370 wOBA and 1.49 HR/9 allowed to righties. This all sets up perfectly well for this White Sox lineup, as a few of their right-handed bats possess discernible skills against southpaws, with Jose Abreu (182 wRC+, .444 wOBA, .257 ISO) clearly leading the way with a 42.1% hard hit rate. On top of Abreu, virtually any righty cracking the Chicago lineup is more than playable on this slate with Avisail Garcia (161 wRC+, .414 wOBA vs LHP) and Tim Anderson (112 wRC+, .342 wOBA vs LHP) being the other definitive players to target, while Tyler Saladino and Kevan Smith make for viable salary-savers, based on their lineup positions, to round out a White Sox stack in large-field tournaments despite their overall struggles with left-handed pitching thus far this season.