Kyle Wright Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Kyle Wright only completed six innings in one of his last five starts, but allowed two runs or less in each of his last four. A breakout season included a 23.6 K% (16.4 K-BB%), 55.6 GB% and just 6.8% Barrels/BBE. That said, his 3.19 ERA was a bit below esimators ranging from a 3.26 DRA to a 3.89 xERA. The strikeout rate was merely league average (21.5%) over his last 22 starts too. The Phillies had a 102 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs RHP this year and struggled in three matchups against Wright this year (19 IP – 6 ER – 3 HR – 7 BB – 15 K – 73 BF). Wright’s most frequently thrown pitch was a curveball (34.1%, -1.1 RV/100, 33.5 Whiff%, .263 wOBA, .262 xwOBA), which it may behoove him to continue to utilize frequently against the Phillies (-0.37 wCB/C since the break). Wright is the least expensive pitcher on either site, but the second best projected one (by less than a point though), which makes him the top projected DraftKings value (second best projected FanDuel value). However, he, like Wheeler of course, has major weather concerns in a hitter friendly environment with a hitter friendly umpire.

The Phillies have the third highest (or second lowest) team run total on the board (3.46), half a run behind the Dodgers and Braves and half a run ahead of the Padres. Bryce Harper (148 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP this year), Kyle Schwarber (146 wRC+, .334 ISO) and J.T. Realmuto (129 wRC+, .207 ISO) all project as top 10 bats today, but this lineup is a bit stars and scrubs with Rhys Hoskins and Brandon Marsh the only other two batters in the lineup reaching a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. LHBs (.308 wOBA, .329 xwOBA) hit Wright a bit better than RHBs (.265 wOBA, .280 ISO) this year. Marsh (105 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (92 wRC+, .139 ISO) are the top two projected FanDuel values on the board for $2.5K or less. Both are also top 10 projected DraftKings values, though the latter costs $3.6K.

The largest slate night slate of the season so far offers 13 games on Friday, though Justin Verlander is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites, where he is $10.5K. Like he never left, Verlander has struck out 15 of 47 batters, most recently with eight shutout innings of three-hit ball in Seattle. If he has a flaw, it’s that he’s become a bit home run prone in recent seasons, but solo home runs are about all he gives up, accounting for approximately half his runs allowed since going to Houston. Projected for the top overall point total by three points (PlateIQ) on either site, Verlander is also expected to be the most popular pitcher on the board and significantly so on FanDuel. It’s not an easy matchup. Each of the first five in the projected Toronto lineup exceed a .325 wOBA vs RHP since last season with only two in the entire lineup above a 21.8 K% vs RHP.

Julio Urias is $10.1K on DraftKings, but $300 less on FanDuel. However, he is not even a top five overall projected arm and a recommended fade in all except large field GPPs. After failing to strike out any of the 16 Rockies he faced at Coors with two walks in his first start, Urias struck out five of 15 Reds over five one-hit innings the next time out. Considering Cincinnati’s lack of accomplishment against all pitchers this season, that doesn’t seem too impressive. While still two miles per hour below last year (94.7 mph), his velocity was up nearly a mile per hour (92.3) from his first start (91.4). This is still a bit of a concern though. Manny Machado is the only batter in the projected San Diego lineup above a .200 ISO vs LHP since last season.

Kyle Wright is the only other pitcher on the slate to reach the $9K point on both sites and while that sounds a bit shocking, he’s been dominant through two starts this year. He’s struck out 15 of 42 batters (13.7 SwStr%) with just a single walk and hasn’t allowed a barrel yet. Wright seems to have cut down on his slider for more changeups and curveballs against the Reds and Padres. It’s hard to believe he’s still only thrown 81 innings of major league baseball. The Marlins are not a bad lineup against LHP, but there should be some strikeouts here for Wright, who shows up somewhere in the middle of the board in terms of overall projected point total. With projected ownership rates below five percent on either site, he could be a great GPP choice.

Brad Keller, Freddy Peralta and Michael Kopech eclipse a $9K price tag on FanDuel, but are all in the $8K range on DraftKings. Keller has reshaped and improved his changeup as more of a platoon busting weapon against RHPs. He’s struck out 10 of 45 overall with three walks and exactly half his contact on the ground. Just one of his three barrels (9.4%) has left the yard though. He allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE with just a 9.1 K-BB% last year that was actually a career high. He pitches in a favorable park in Seattle. Peralta has had some control issues reform through two starts, walking six of 37 batters, failing to record a fifth inning out in either of his two starts. His ability to miss bats has not waned though (27 K%, 14.5 SwStr%) and while one of four fly balls has left the yard, it’s the only barrel he’s allowed so far (5%). Peralta has yet to drop his walk rate below 9.6% in any season and Philadelphia seems a park downgrade. Kopech struck out eight of 34, but also walked four with just 23.8% of his contact on the ground and a 90.1 mph EV so far. He faces a tough lineup in Minnesota and also still doesn’t seem entirely stretched out after spending almost all of last season in the bullpen. Current projections don’t like Keller very much, especially on DraftKings, where Peralta owns the second highest projected point total and ownership rate.

Kyle Wright will replace Julio Teheran tonight. Wright has some prospect shine (#4 org., #46 MLB with a 55 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs), but the 23 year-old had a modest 15.5 K-BB% in 70.1 AAA innings and has struggled through 20 career major league innings with batters from either side of the plate owning an xwOBA above .370 against him and exactly as many walks as strikeouts (17.2% each). Wright may also be a pitcher the Nationals can run on according to the PlateIQ Stolen Base Ratings (premium subscription required). This adds some value to lower power bats like Trea Turner (105 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Adam Eaton (112 wRC+, .117 ISO) atop the a lineup implied for 4.95 runs tonight (tied for fifth on the board) under likely hitter friendly conditions in Atlanta tonight.

The Mets face 23 year old rookie Kyle Wright in Atlanta Friday night, and their starting lineup has some underpriced bats. Wright is a decent prospect but is far from a finished product, he has an ugly 5.38 xFIP / .464 xwOBA to start 2019. Jeff McNeil ($4.1k) will lead off for NYM and has a 140 wRC+ in his career (218 PA) vs. RHP. Amed Rosario ($3.9k, batting 2nd) owns just an 82 wRC+ in his young career vs. RHP, but might be in the midst of a breakout with an .373 xwOBA to start 2019. Robinson Cano ($3.7k, batting 3rd) is always a solid option vs. RHP and had a 127 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2018. Michael Conforto will cost more ($4.7k) but is batting cleanup and has a career 136 wRC+ vs. RHP. Other intriguing options include Wilson Ramos ($3.8k, 125 wRC+ vs. RHP last year), Dominic Smith ($3.7k, 160 wRC+ this year) and power-speed threat Keon Broxton ($3.8k, career 92 wRC+). The Mets have a 4.89 implied total tonight.

While there are only four teams above five implied runs tonight, two teams with a healthy line above 4.5 runs could get lost in the shuffle in a nice spot. Zack Wheeler was a revelation last season. He had a lower second half ERA than teammate Jacob deGrom. Unfortunately, his first two starts of the new season look too much like his 2017 instead. While he only walked one his first time out, he did struggle with location and allowed four runs to Washington. It blew up in his face with seven walks against the same lineup last time out. Rookie Kyle Wright walked five Phillies of his own last time out. If either pitcher struggles with command again tonight, they may not get any help from hitter friendly umpire David Rackley. Both lineups are well disciplined, with walk rates of 9.9% or above vs RHP so far in 2019. While walks aren’t what daily fantasy players are looking for, there should be ample opportunities to drive runners in. Freddie Freeman (129 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should be a key target here. LHBs have just a 35.5 GB% against Wheeler over the last calendar year. The Mets have Jeff McNeil (140 wRC+ vs RHP) in the leadoff spot with Michael Conforto (123 wRC+, .201 ISO) batting cleanup. LHBs have a 64.3 Hard% against Wright through two starts. This game total has moved up half a run from 9 to 9.5 since opening.

Although tonight’s top pitchers are clearly Carlos Carrasco (@ Kansas City) and Patrick Corbin (vs Pittsburgh), several of the top pitching prospects in baseball are on display Friday night. Chris Paddack, Corbin Burnes, and Kyle Wright were all ranked between 30th and 40th on Fangraphs’ Top Prospects list this season. Each has fast-tracked their way through their respective organizations, but each has shown marginal results through a couple of outings this season and they may all be working with workload constraints tonight.

Paddock, the most expensive, has struck out one-third of the batters he’s faced, but with an 8.3 SwStr%. However, opponents have just an 81.8 Z-Contact% and haven’t barreled a ball yet (83.8 mph aEV). Burnes has been missing bats (39.1 K%, 16.7 SwStr%), but has allowed three HRs in each start (yes, six HRs over two starts, 25% Barrels/BBE) and faces the Dodgers (137 wRC+, 15.3 K%, 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Wright’s 52.2 Z-O-Contact% is worst on the board and he’s been hit failry hard too, as the three HRs and a .417 xwOBA would confirm.

The most interesting pitching prospect on the board may the most unheralded one. Trent Thornton brought no fanfare, but he did have a 17.6 K-BB% at AAA last year and has struck out 15 of 38 batters through two starts. A 12.6 SwStr% does not entirely support that rate, but it’s still above average. One small matter of concern is a 91.1 Z-Contact%. He has a slightly unfavorable matchup with the Rays at a reasonable price.