Marco Gonzales Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Paying up for Ohtani or Burnes may be the best idea, but perhaps paying down for pitching is a good idea too with uncertain workloads around the league. Current projections for FanDuel suggest that only two of the top 9 values (the two guys just mentioned) cost more than $8K. You’re taking a big chance playing them on a single pitcher site, but you’re already taking a big chance when you decided to play today, but these kind of chaotic slates might be the most profitable for those who put in the work. Mike Clevinger ($7.3K) is the top projected FanDuel value. He’s finally reawakened from a long slump, allowing a single run or less in two of his last three starts, but has struck out just 10 of his last 87 batters and just 18.8% with 9.5% Barrels/BBE on the year. The projected San Francisco lineup averages a 24.8 K% vs RHP this season. Clevinger currently projects as the fifth best DraftKings value at a similar cost.

Marco Gonzales’s stated purpose in this game (by his manager) is to soak up as many innings as possible to save the bullpen for the wild card series in two days. This makes him more interesting than he would normally be. Unless something drastic happens, you’ll almost certainly be getting the workload portion of a Quality Starts (if the Mariners are to be believed). However, consider that he has four less strikeouts than deGrom in 20 more starts. The two pitchers in this game combine for a 26.9 K% when added together with Gonzales contributing the lower portion of that (13%). While he’s managed contact well enough (87.1 mph EV, 7.2% Barrels/BBE), he allows so much contact that he’s still allowed 43 barrels (30 home runs) on the year. His 4.14 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators. The Tigers have a 101 wRC+, 22.3 K% and just 8.3 HR/FB vs LHP. Costing $7.9K on both sites, the workload projects Gonzales as the better value on FanDuel (second) than DraftKings (11th).

Second consecutive “Revenge Game” for Johan Oviedo, who produced a Quality Start against his old team last time out with just two runs and four strikeouts. He did allow his first home run on five barrels (7.0%) in six starts for the Pirates with an above average 23.3 K%, but also a 13.8 BB%. He has a 3.04 ERA/3.60 FIP/4.61 xFIP since the trade. He does have some upside and may not be facing the best Cardinal lineup (projected lineup averages a 21.2 K% vs RHP). Oviedo is within $300 of $6K on either site, projecting as a top eight value on either.

Ken Waldichuk is coming off his best major league start, striking out eight of 19 Mariners to bring him up to a 24 K% through six starts, while four of his nine walks came in his debut. The contact profile remains a problem though. With just a 33.8 GB% and a 44.7 Z-O-Swing%, opponents have barreled up 15% of their contact against him with a 90.8 mph EV and 46.3% hard hit rate. While his 6.18 ERA is well above all estimators, a 5.15 xERA would be the closest, though he now has a contact neutral estimator below four (3.87 SIERA). The Angels have an 87 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs LHP and Waldichuk has a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), costing just $5.2K on DK.

Domingo German has struck out 13 of his last 48 batters, but still has just an 18.5 K% on the season. On the positive side, he doesn’t walk many (6.5%) and has allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. With a .251 BABIP and 78.6 LOB%, estimators ranging from a 3.92 xERA to a 4.53 DRA are well above his 3.31 ERA. A changeup (23.3%, -1.5 RV/100) and curveball (37%, -0.7 RV/100) approach should work against the Rangers (91 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs RHP), who have struggled against both pitches since the break (-0.16 wCH/C, -0.62 wCB/C). Costing less than $8K, perhaps German is auditioning for a post-season role here.

Aaron Civale has struck out 14 of 59 batters with a single walk since returning from the IL, allowing two home runs, but just a single barrel (2.3%). The contact profile had been a major issue through most the season, but he’s now down to 7.9% Barrels/BBE to go with a 17.7 K-BB%. He has a 5.04 ERA (60.5 LOB%), but not a single estimator above four. We could be concerned about his workload against the Royals (89 wRC+, 21.8 K%, 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but not his price, within $100 of $8K on either site.

Marco Gonzales penetrates deep into games very often, but his effectiveness is a bit of a mystery. A 4.30 ERA and 4.17 FIP are well below a SIERA and xFIP above five and especially a 6.03 DRA. His .316 xwOBA suggests contact management supporting the ERA and the park in Seattle will help his HR rate (9.3 HR/FB), but 16 of his 103 runs are unearned. A below average ground ball rate (40%) and near average 88 mph aEV does not explain 5.4% Barrels/BBE very well. The good news is that he transitions to an NL park that suppresses RH power tonight against an offense that has been terrible vs LHP this year (77 wRC+, 12 HR/FB, 16.9 K-BB%). Without Josh Bell in the projected lineup, Bryan Reynolds (.340 wOBA, .180 ISO) is the only batter a .150 ISO vs LHP and one of only two above even just a .300 wOBA. This is not a spot where players should expect strikeouts, but efficiency with a large workload should make him a reasonable low priced compliment on DraftKings ($6.3K) for those paying up for one of the higher priced arms tonight.

Though Marco Gonzales hasn’t shown much upside this year (16% K rate) and hasn’t prevented runs too well either (4.37 ERA / 5.17 xFIP) he is in a good spot versus a terrible Tigers offense this afternoon. Gonzales will be pitching at home, where he’s been a more effective pitcher in his career. Since 2018, Gonzales has a .300 xwOBA allowed, 4.18 xFIP and 15.3% K-BB in home games compared to a .329 xwOBA allowed, 4.37 xFIP and 12.5% K-BB in road games. The Tigers come into this game with just an 87 wRC+ and 25.9% K rate vs. LHP on the year. They also have a 2nd worst 77 wRC+ and 26.8% K rate over the past 30 days. The Tigers have just 3 batters in their projected lineup (Castellanos, Cabrera, Goodrum) who have an xwOBA above .320 vs. LHP on the year. Gonzales has an inflated ERA over the past 30 days with a 7.36 mark, but he has also been a bit better in the K department with a 20.5% K rate and the 4.56 xFIP and .307 xwOBA allowed suggest he’s been much better than what the ERA says. The Tigers will have just a 4.01 implied total vs. Gonzales and the Mariners.

Marco Gonzales has faced the Athletics three times this year with some impressive results: 21 IP – 8 R – 6 ER – 3 HR – 4 BB – 13 K – 85 BF. However, the A’s have otherwise manhandled LHP this season (114 wRC+, 17.6 K%, 16.1 HR/FB) and there are certainly enough holes in Gonzales’s game this year that the Oakland lineup may contain some worthwhile plays tonight. First, he hasn’t generated a swinging strike rate above 6.7% in a game since May. Second, his 4.24 ERA and 4.08 FIP are dependent on an unsustainable 7.9 HR/FB. While it’s true he’s only generated 5.8% Barrels/BBE, and aEV of 89.1 mph makes that seem a bit sketchy. This will also be the third time the A’s get a look at him in six starts, which generally lends the advantage to the offense. Each of the first five batters in the projected lineup for the A’s generate a wRC+ above 110 vs LHP over the last calendar year. Each additionally adds a wRC+ above .200 over the same span. Matt Chapman (149 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Khris Davis (142 wRC+, .309 ISO), but Gonzales has actually exhibited a reverse split over the last 12 months (RHBs .330 wOBA, .352 xwOBA), while Matt Olson has hit same-handed pitching very well (128 wRC+, .228 ISO). At a healthy 5.39 implied runs, the A’s find themselves merely in the middle of the board tonight.

Marco Gonzales had a solid start to the year, but has largely struggled since. He owns a 6.01 xFIP, 5.56 SIERA and 8.20 ERA over the past 30 days with a 6.6% K-BB and 44% hard contact rate. He also has a .383 xwOBA allowed and 90.2 aEV over that time frame. Gonzales has actually been worse vs. LHB this year (.348 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .321 allowed vs. RHB) but can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. Khris Davis (.389 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Matt Olson (.383), Chad Pinder (.371), Ramon Laureano (.360), Josh Phegley (.352), Matt Chapman (.347), and Jurickson Profar (.340) are all great options in the A’s lineup tonight. Marcus Semien (.290) is also in play batting leadoff. Matt Olson has been the A’s hottest hitter with a .396 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Chapman, Pinder, Davis, Profar and Phegley can all be had for $4.2k or less on Draftkings. The A’s have a solid 5.50 implied total tonight vs. Marco Gonzales and the Mariners.

Games in explosive environments like Colorado and Texas will get most of the attention tonight, but don’t forget there were 21 runs scored in Anaheim last night and a chance for more fireworks tonight. On one side, Marco Gonzales remains is missing fewer bats (14.6 K%, 6.2 SwStr%) and allowing louder contact (89 mph aEV). In fact, his 92.4 Z-Contact% is worst on the board and he’s facing a team that just does not strike out (Angels 15.8 K% last seven days). Add this to the worst defense in the league through the first few weeks (Mariners -26 DFS) and the Angels may put a few more on the board tonight. While Mike Trout (174 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is a given, perhaps he’ll go under-owned in favor of Coors bats. David Fletcher (66 wRC+, .093 ISO) hasn’t shown much, but homered last night and provides a cheap leadoff bat.

On the other side, Felix Pena has the worst aEV on the board (95.1 mph) and that’s through three starts, not just one or two. The Seattle lineup has not yet been released, but the bat you want here is Dan Vogelbach. He has been destroying RHP (187 wRC+, .305 ISO, 51.6 Hard% over the last calendar year) and we might see one go a long way if he connects tonight. LHBs have a .332 wOBA and 42.7 Hard% against Pena over the last year. The problem is, besides Vogelbach and Jay Bruce (94 wRC+, .182 ISO), the Mariners don’t really offer a lot in terms of LH power.