Mike Foltynewicz Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Wednesday’s MLB slate features two elimination games in the National League. This means that no starting pitcher is safe from the quick hook, although the Cardinals certainly have their best pitcher on the mound. Jack Flaherty struck out eight of the 29 Braves he faced, walking just one with a single HR and three earned runs despite keeping 60% of his contact on the ground. He ties for the slate lead with a 29.9 K% this year and his 2.75 ERA tops the board by more than a full half run, though his estimators are more in line with the two pitchers in Los Angeles tonight. Flaherty’s 80.6 Z-Contact% is best on the board by nearly four full points and his 86.1 mph aEV is best on the board by more than a mile per hour. At Flaherty’s $7.4K price tag on DraftKings, he may be the best value there. The Braves had a 23.2 K% vs RHP this year, although today’s specific lineup features just four batters below a 17 K%.

Offensively, it’s a very tight board with only the Nationals outside a 3.75 to 4.0 implied run range. Atlanta is the much more hitter friendly run environment here too. The surprise in this lineup is Adam Duvall (91 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this year), who’s had some big hits in this series, replacing Matt Joyce. While Flaherty had just 18 points separating his wOBA between RH and LH batters this season (both below .270), his xwOBA pushed that past 60 points (LHBs .306), making this a questionable decision. A healthy Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO) would be the top bat in this spot, but there’s some question about how healthy he really is. Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO) are more league average bats against RHP, while Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO) is certainly viable behind the plate here.

Mike Foltynewicz has the worst season numbers on the board. His 21.4 K% is the only mark below 29% and his estimators (all above four) are the only ones above four. In fact, he owns the only DRA above three and his .325 xwOBA is worst on the board by exactly 50 points. That said, he struck out seven of 24 Cardinals, allowing just three hits without a run in his first start of the series and finished up on quite the run. After being recalled to the majors in August, he has a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 16.5 K-BB% in 10 starts. With the top park neutral matchup on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), Folty is at least viable in a secondary DraftKings spot at the lowest price on the board ($6K). Dexter Fowler (107 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP) is the lowest priced Cardinal on DraftKings ($3.7K) and potentially the top value bat in this game (also below $3K on FanDuel). Marcell Ozuna (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been heating up in this series. Paul DeJong (104 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Yadiers Molina (77 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup outside a 97-113 wRC+ range vs RHP this year.

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for the second straight day should make Atlanta the most positive run environment on the board again today, though these are projected to be two middle of the board offenses, each within a quarter of a run of four implied runs. Jack Flaherty finished the season with a second half as hot as the weather in Atlanta today. Over his last 16 starts, he had a 0.98 ERA with a 2.32 FIP, 3.27 xFIP and 27.2 K-BB%. His 86.1 mph aEV this season is lowest on the board. Considering that both teams emptied the bullpen last night and the Cardinals have a one game lead, St Louis may be more incentivized to push him deeper into this game. Flaherty is the second most expensive arm on FanDuel, but possibly a strong value on DraftKings for $8.2K, despite the unfriendly conditions. The Atlanta lineup has just a 19.3 combined K% vs RHP this year, according to PlateIQ with only three non-pitcher bats above a 20 K%, so it’s not going to be easy.

Mike Foltynewicz is worst on the board in terms of strikeout rate (21.4%), Z-O-Swing (44.9%), SIERA (4.71), FIP (4.97) and 95+ mph EV (39.5%), many of those stats by a wide margin. However, since returning to the majors in August, he generated a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 23.8 K% over his final 10 starts. He also faces the worst offense on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K%, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP). Folty is certainly a useful secondary arm on DraftKings at the lowest price point on the board ($6.2K). This is also a spot to look at some St Louis bats as well. Dexter Fowler (109 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (114 wRC+, .228 ISO) may have the most value. RHBs (.328 wOBA, .337 xwOBA) actually performed better against Foltynewicz than LHBs (.307 wRC+, .311 xwOBA) this year.

Mike Foltynewicz looks like he’s rounding back into form with a 2.96 ERA over the last 30 days. However, his 5.11 SIERA is actually a bit higher than his season mark. He’s struck out just five of his last 41 batters, while walking as many, both starts against Toronto. He did not allow a HR. On the season, he has an 11.7 K-BB% with a board worse 18 HR/FB despite just a 35.1 GB%. That’s 20 HRs in 92 innings split evenly. Folty used to have issues with LHBs, which seemed solved last season, but this year he’s struggled equally with batters from either side of the plate. In fact, it’s RHBs that have been slightly better against him with a wOBA and xwOBA both just above .350. He’s one of just two pitchers on the board tonight above a .340 xwOBA (.342) and 8% Barrels/BBE (8.1%). There was also a large drop off in his velocity last time out (1.4 mph), which may be why he was lifted after just 76 pitches despite not yet allowing a run. That said, Corey Dickerson (145 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP this year) seems a major value for just $3K on FanDuel. Rhys Hoskins (120 wRC+, .258 ISO) and the red hot J.T. Realmuto (100 wRC+, .196 ISO with a 264 wRC+ and 63.2 Hard% last seven days) are the interesting bats from the right-hand side here. The Phillies have an implied run line of 4.47 that sits in the middle of the board with potential for a bit more.

Mike Foltynewicz does have a league average 10.3 SwStr%, but just a 14.3 K% through five starts. Ironic for a pitcher who was well above a 2.5 K/SwStr last season. He’s not fooling anybody with a 45.3 Z-O-Swing%, resulting in a 10.5% Barrels/BBE and .357 xwOBA that’s still 25 points below his actual results so far. His ERA along with all of his estimators are well above five.

Miles Mikolas had been pitching well before getting thumped for seven runs in Texas last time out. His 16 K% dictates reliance on excellent control (4.3 BB%) and quality contact management, though the latter has only been about league average this year and resulted in an 18.5 HR/FB this year. While only three of his seven HRs have come at home and all three of those in one start, in a normally run and power suppressing park, weather conditions are expected to give offenses a boost in St Louis tonight (Weather Edge is available to premium subscribers).

Unfortunately, this is not as sneaky a spot as we would hope to look for offense with the Cardinals implied above five runs tonight. Matt Carpenter (140 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should certainly be a target against a pitcher who had struggled against LHBs before breaking out last year. The Braves, however, are right around 4.2 runs. This is a spot where we can look at some of their LHBs as well (.329 wOBA vs Mikolas last calendar year). Freddie Freeman (138 wRC+, .202 ISO) has caught fire with a 191 wRC (53.6 Hard%) over the last week. Nick Markakis (119 wRC+, .153 ISO) doesn’t have the upside, but is affordably in the middle of this lineup on most nights. While Mikolas has smothered RHBs (.238 wOBA, .269 xwOBA, 27.1 Hard%, 52.9 GB%), conditions appear to make a talent like Ronald Acuna (137 wRC+, .229 ISO) in play as well. He leads the team with a 65.2 Hard% over the last week.

Special post-season pricing has every pitcher below $10K today and the sites have done a good job making these pitchers very close in value. The most positive run environment on the board sees Mike Clevinger (25.6 K%, 3.86 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) take on Dallas Keuchel (17.5 K%, 4.15 SIERA, .303 xwOBA). Clevinger will not have a long leash in an elimination game and is facing an offense with a 104 wRC+ and 19.2 K% vs RHP. Keuchel is the only pitcher on the board below a 22 K% and faces a tough offense as well (99 wRC+, 19.1 K% vs LHP). Despite the lack of upside, Keuchel does generate a lot of weak ground balls (53.7 GB%) and costs just $5.7K on DraftKings. He also may have the longest leash of today's group with his team up 2-0. Rich Hill (27.4 K%, 3.57 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) averaged just 5.1 IP this season (second lowest on the board) and has to contend with another tough offense (107 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs LHP) in Atlanta, probably the most pitcher friendly environment in play today. Mike Foltynewicz (27.2 K%, 3.77 SIERA, .288 xwOBA) was treated poorly by the Dodgers in the first game of this series. They are tied for the split high wRC+ (116) and strikeout rate (22.5%) against RHP today. In the most power friendly environment, Luis Severino (28.2 K%, 3.26 SIERA, .310 xwOBA) is the most talented pitcher on the board and the one with the most upside. He did have some control issues in the wild card game, but was nearly unhittable. Of course, the Red Sox are tied for the split high 116 wRC+ and split low 19 K% vs RHP. He's opposed by Nathan Eovaldi (22.2 K%, 3.71 SIERA, .299 xwOBA), who has to face a deep Yankee lineup (109 wRC+, 22.5 K%, 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP) as the largest underdog of the day. He averaged just over five innings per start, worst on the slate. The bottom line is this is a tightly priced group of pitchers, all facing difficult offenses.