| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | k | ip | ab | sho | w | hra | l | er | cg | ha | 3ba | bba | sba | ibba | whip | hbp | qstart | 1ba | k/9 | 2ba |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-24 | vs. STL | -- | -- | 13.3 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4.5 | 1 |
| 2019-09-18 | vs. MIA | -- | -- | 15.6 | 33 | 4 | 6.2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5.41 | 1 |
| 2019-09-13 | vs. CIN | -- | -- | 15.9 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 2019-09-08 | @ CIN | -- | -- | 11.45 | 26 | 3 | 6.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.11 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4.27 | 0 |
| 2019-09-02 | vs. SD | -- | -- | 6.85 | 16 | 1 | 6.1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.42 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.42 | 1 |
| 2019-08-27 | @ SF | -- | -- | 16.9 | 32 | 2 | 7.1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2.46 | 0 |
| 2019-08-21 | vs. COL | -- | -- | -2.15 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
| 2019-08-16 | vs. SF | -- | -- | 6.1 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2019-08-11 | @ LAD | -- | -- | -8.55 | -3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3.6 | 3 |
| 2019-08-06 | vs. PHI | -- | -- | 6.8 | 19 | 3 | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5.07 | 1 |
| 2019-07-30 | @ TEX | -- | -- | 0.15 | 8 | 2 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.76 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3.18 | 2 |
| 2019-07-24 | vs. TEX | -- | -- | 22.35 | 43 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.29 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| 2019-07-19 | vs. LAA | -- | -- | 40.05 | 55 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 2019-07-12 | @ LAA | -- | -- | -7.9 | -4 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27.27 | 2 |
| 2019-07-03 | vs. STL | -- | -- | 28.25 | 48 | 7 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8.22 | 1 |
| 2019-06-27 | @ MIL | -- | -- | 10.1 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7.5 | 2 |
| 2019-06-21 | vs. BAL | -- | -- | -0.6 | 7 | 2 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.06 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3.38 | 3 |
| 2019-06-16 | @ OAK | -- | -- | 25.55 | 46 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| 2019-06-11 | @ MIN | -- | -- | 17.55 | 34 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7.71 | 2 |
| 2019-06-05 | vs. HOU | -- | -- | 29.95 | 49 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 2019-05-31 | vs. LAA | -- | -- | 16.75 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.57 | 0 |
| 2019-05-26 | @ OAK | -- | -- | 9.4 | 17 | 4 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.41 | 0 |
| 2019-05-20 | @ TEX | -- | -- | -1.95 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7.2 | 3 |
| 2019-05-14 | vs. OAK | -- | -- | 25.4 | 45 | 6 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8.11 | 1 |
| 2019-05-09 | @ NYY | -- | -- | 14.15 | 28 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2.57 | 2 |
| 2019-05-04 | @ CLE | -- | -- | 10.1 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 2019-04-27 | vs. TEX | -- | -- | 2.65 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7.2 | 4 |
| 2019-04-21 | @ LAA | -- | -- | 8.1 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| 2019-04-16 | vs. CLE | -- | -- | 12.7 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 2019-04-11 | @ KC | -- | -- | 6.45 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 | 2 |
| 2019-04-06 | @ CWS | -- | -- | 20.85 | 41 | 6 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.42 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8.53 | 0 |
| 2019-03-30 | vs. BOS | -- | -- | 22.1 | 43 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10.5 | 1 |
Mike Leake Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Projected Cincinnati lineup has three batters above a .300 ISO vs RHP this year
Mike Leake has elite control. His 3.2 BB% is lowest on the board, but he throws a bunch of pitches over the plate that get hammered. He has just a 7.8 K% over the last month, while his xwOBA is above .350 for the month and season. His 90.7 mph aEV and 43.3% 95+ mph EV are both second worst on the board, behind only Tyler Beede, who gets to face the Marlins tonight. Not that the Cincinnati lineup boasts a lot of quality bats, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA vs RHP this year. The projected lineup for the Reds features Joey Votto (111 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP) and then three batters above a .300 ISO vs RHP this year: Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .302 ISO), Aristides Aquino (128 wRC+, .349 ISO) and Derek Dietrich (117 wRC+, .311 ISO). There’s a good chance one or two of them punish a Leake offering or two tonight.
Angels bats in a good spot at home vs. Leake’s 91.4 MPH aEV
Mike Leake doesn’t give many free passes as he has just a 3.5% BB rate, leading to a good WHIP (1.24) and respectable 4.32 ERA. However, Leake does give up a lot of loud contact as evidenced by a 40.6% hard contact rate, 91.4 MPH aEV, .343 xwOBA and .401 xwOBA on contact. It makes some sense to deploy high upside, strikeout prone free-swingers like Shohei Ohtani (.403 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Upton (.486) and Justin Bour (.286) versus a pitcher like Leake who consistently works in the zone and does not miss many bats with a 7.9% SwStr and 17.3% K rate. Other options in the LAA projected lineup include Mike Trout (.499), Kole Calhoun (.342) and David Fletcher (.337). Recent call-up Matt Thaiss (115 wRC+, .203 ISO in AAA this year) is also in play. Justin Bour started off the season slow, but does have an improved .321 xwOBA over the past month. Calhoun, Upton and Bour are all $4.1k or less on Draftkings, while Matt Thaiss is just $3k. The Angels have a solid 5.67 implied line vs. Leake and the Mariners at home tonight.
Mike Leake has a board worst 90.3 Z-Contact% and 91.5 mph aEV
The Astros are still down a good portion of the top half of their lineup, but the good news is that they’ve still been able to batter Seattle pitching in this series and the hits are likely to keep coming against Mike Leake, who does not miss bats (16.5 K% with a board worst 90.3 Z-Contact%) and generates far too much hard contact (91.5 mph aEV is also worst on the slate). All of this has led to a .367 xwOBA and actual wOBA eight points higher. Despite the 4.71 ERA, 5.62 FIP and 7.34 DRA, the Mariners not only keep trotting him out there, but he’s faced at least 23 batters in every start and failed to complete six innings only three times this year. He’s allowed multiple HRs in seven of his 12 starts and while only one of those was at home, it was his last start against the Angels, which makes three consecutive starts with multiple HRs allowed as well. Alex Bregman (165 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) remains the star in this lineup. Michael Brantley (137 wRC+, .184 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (130 wRC+, .243 ISO) and whoever bats leadoff likely have value as well.
Mike Leake has a 7.10 DRA, .371 xwOBA and a board worst 91.6 mph aEV
Mike Leake doesn’t miss bats and his 91.6 mph aEV is worst on the board. His 4.93 ERA is in line with his traditional estimators (SIERA, xFIP, FIP), but the more progressive numbers (7.10 DRA, .371 xwOBA) don’t even believe he belongs in the league. Somehow, he keeps getting his six innings in, but they’re not really quality innings. Take a pitcher who has exceeded four strikeouts in just one of his last nine starts and put him up against an offense with a 114 wRC+ and 17 K% vs RHP and you have a recipe for offense. The Angels are one of seven teams implied for five or more runs tonight, but near the bottom of that group they could get lost in the shuffle, especially in a pitcher’s park on the west coast. Leake doesn’t have much of a platoon split over the last 12 months (batters from either side above .320 wOBA and xwOBA), though Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is really the only RHB you want. Shohei Ohtani (149 wRC+, .286 ISO), Kole Calhoun (133 wRC+, .282 ISO) and Tommy La Stella (128 wRC+, .203 ISO) are all bats of interest here.
J.D. Martinez worth the price on Saturday night slate
With the exception of Kenta Maeda, there aren’t any pitching options to spend up on Saturday night, so you’ll have to find somewhere to spend your salary. J.D. Martinez is a great option to spend it on facing Mike Leake. Leake was actually worse vs. RHB last year (.334 wOBA versus a .317 against LHB). Leake stays low in the zone (43% of strikes are in the lower third of the zone, above league average) and as a result generates groundballs at a high rate (48.7% GB rate last year). This isn’t any problem for Martinez though, as he has generated a .417 xwOBA on lower third strikes vs. RHP since 2017. Martinez has crushed RHP in general with a .419 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2017. Leake’s 1.48 HR/9 and lackluster 6.79 K/9 vs. RHB in 2018 also plays right into Martinez’s strength as a constant threat to go deep.
Hard contact is trending up again
There are just three teams above five implied runs tonight, but Houston (4.8) is the next best thing despite possibly the most negative run environment in baseball. Hard contact is trending upward again for Mike Leake, above 40% in three of his last four starts to give him a .387 xwOBA over the last 30 days. The Astros are a lineup populated by RHBs in seven of the first eight spots and that's not necessarily a favorable aspect for Leake, who has allowed a .342 wOBA to same-handed batters this year with only six points of separation in his xwOBA. Alex Bregman (160 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP this season) has been the breakout offensive star for this team. Tyler White (162 wRC+, .300 ISO) is still the small sample superstar, but that sample is growing and the numbers aren't really declining. Jose Altuve (146 wRC+, .145 ISO) and George Springer (114 wRC+, .154 ISO) have produced, but without the power they exhibited last year.
Pitching options are slim and perhaps obvious on Thursday night
Tonight's MLB slate is either five or six games depending upon site, Pitching options aren't ideal under either circumstance. Clatyon Kershaw (24.6 K%, 3.29 SIERA, .277 xwOBA) is the top pitcher on the board and the only one exceeding a $10K price tag. In fact, he also exceeds an $11K price tag on both sites. He broke a string of four straight starts with at least seven innings in his last start, but hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in nine straight starts and 15 of 16. Over the last month, he has a .228 xwOBA. St Louis is a small park downgrade for him. The Cardinals are a dangerous offense vs LHP (104 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB). This should not be enough to scare players off Kershaw, considering the remaining options. As for who to pair him up with on DraftKings, Mike Leake may make the most sense. In fact, there aren't many other arms, who make much sense. He costs less than $8K on either site and has gone at least six innings in 16 of his last 19 starts. There's a sure lack of upside in his 15.1 K% against the Angels' 21.2 K% vs RHP, but both numbers have been rising slightly recently. Leake has a 17.9 K% over the last month. He also has a 50.5 GB% over that 19 starts span. Eduardo Rodriguez (26.1 K%) is perhaps another arm to take a shot with on this board. He's had one great start (White Sox) and one terrible one (Astros) since returning from the DL. He's above $8.5K on either site in the most positive run environment on the board (Fenway), though the Blue Jays do have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP this year.
Unsupported BABIP with a great strikeout rate leads tonight's mid and lower priced pitching options
Paying down for pitching, or at least not paying more than $10K, is likely where the minds of most players are at tonight and as far as upside goes, that discussion probably starts with Nick Pivetta (28.2 K%, 3.36 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) and his unfathomable .337 BABIP in Miami tonight. There's nothing in his batted ball profile that supports the elevated BABIP and he gets a large park upgrade in a strong spot (Marlins 83 wRC+ at home, 86 wRC+ vs RHP). Pivetta costs exactly $8.2K on either site. He's allowed one run or less in three of his last five starts, but 11 total in the other two. Jordan Zimmermann (20.8 K%, 4.00 SIERA, .327 xwOBA) is having a league average season and while the White Sox' offense has improved, it's still a high upside spot (18.8 K-BB% vs RHP, 30.1 K% last seven days) at a low price. Hyun-Jin Ryu (28.6 K%, 3.14 SIERA, .270 xwOBA) is at home against the Mets (81 wRC+, 24.8 K%, 9.2 HR/FB), who have been improving against southpaws (see Rich Hill last night). He has not exceeded 89 pitches in any of his four starts back from the DL and costs $9.2K on DraftKings, but efficiency got him through seven innings last time out and the pitch count could normally get him through six. Mike Leake has become a much more effective contact manager in the second half of the season...well, he was until his last two starts in Oakland and Arizona (11 runs). He costs just $6.2K on DraftKings at home against the Orioles (76 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB% on the road). Miles Mikolas is a workhorse (highest average innings per start on the board) and a great contact manager (.304 xwOBA) in Washington. Michael Kopech struck out just one of 12 Boston batters before the rains came in his last start and just nine of 48 major league batters so far, but allowed just one run in six innings against Detroit two starts back and gets them again tonight. He had a 31.3 K% at AAA this season. Tyler Glasnow has a 33 K% in six starts for the Rays and has pitched into the seventh in two of his last three. He has a massive price discrepancy against the Blue Jays tonight and costs just $6.7K on FanDuel.
Mike Leake (illness) scratched Tuesday; Nick Vincent will start in his place
Leake is battling an illness and consequentially won’t make his previously scheduled start for the Seattle Mariners in Tuesday’s home matchup against the Houston Astros due to the aforementioned ailment. He’ll be replaced on the mound by Nick Vincent, who, like Leake, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projections of the Astros hitters in any significant fashion. However, with Vincent making his first career "start", this contest sets up as a clear bullpen game for Seattle, and they even made a corresponding move by recalling left-handed pitcher Ross Detwiler from AAA, making him the likeliest candidate to follow Vincent's brief stint as the opener. That said, still be sure to double check out the projections in LineupHQ and the Starting Lineups page for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s main slate.
An Angel in the outfield as a top value play
Although RHBs have a 24 point wOBA advantage on LHBs against Mike Leake this season with 10 of his 15 HRs surrendered, since last season, batters from either side are within eight points of a .320 wOBA. However, xwOBA moves LHBs up over 50 points to .378. Leake has been pitching better recently and regularly going deep into games, but did slip up last time out against these Angels (4 IP - 4 R), who at 4.7 implied runs are the only team above 4.5 runs among the three west coast games tonight. While Leake's failure against the Angels was fueled by a .500 BABIP last time out, there are some interesting bats in this lineup beyond Mike Trout (183 wRC+, .310 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Kole Calhoun (77 wRC+, .141 ISO) may be one of the top value plays on the board by virtue of his lineup spot and cost (below $3K on either site) alone. Shohei Ohtani (187 wRC+, .320 ISO), though in a much smaller sample, has basically equaled Trout's production against RHP. He may bat three spots lower (and only the manager knows why Pujols remains ahead of him), but costs much less than Trout.