Mike Minor Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Wednesday night’s slate contains a lot of tough and expensive pitching choices. More problematically, there’s nobody that really stands out below $9K either. Alek Manoah has been inconsistent recently and travels to face the Yankees. Kyle Gibson has just a 14.7 K% with the Phillies. Luis Gil has struck out 18 of the 64 batters he’s faced and costs just $7K on DraftKings, but also walked seven. The 10.9 BB% is actually his best at any level outside a 30.2 inning stint at AA to start the season (10%). Not a good outlook against Toronto. Vladimir Gutierrez has a single digit K-BB% on the season with all estimators above his 4.17 ERA. We’re left with two potentially usable, though unexciting SP2 options on DraftKings in Mike Minor and Sean Nolin.

Minor has allowed fewer than three runs in just two of his last 12 starts with a 6.24 ERA, but 59.1 LOB%. That’s not to say his he’s been good, but a 13.2 K-BB% isn’t too far below average. He’s struck out just 11 of his last 70 with a 7.1 SwStr% though. While the Orioles have a 104 wRC+ vs LHP, that has been declining. Baltimore is a park downgrade, especially from a power standpoint, for Minor, but he costs just $6.7K and more than half the projected lineup for the Orioles exceeds a 24 K% vs LHP this year.

Nolin will be making his fifth start of the year for the Nationals, but only his second against a team other than the Mets. All four of his barrels (6.9%) have left the yard (21.1 HR/FB), generating a 5.19 FIP to go along with a 5.71 ERA (.389 BABIP). Non-FIP estimators are all in the lower fours with a 15.2 K-BB%. He’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup in a difficult park, but the Braves do have just a 95 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Three in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs LHP, but nobody else is above 20%. However, Nolin costs just $5.9K on DraftKings. If you’d rather go with Dallas Keuchel or Matt Harvey, whose summed strikeout rates barely break 30%, good luck.

Mike Minor has been an incredibly effective pitcher for the Rangers this season, as his 3.33 ERA confirms. While traditional estimators are around a run higher, a 3.69 DRA and .298 xwOBA backed by just 30.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV confirm his quality work. He also gets a substantial park upgrade tonight. However, he may be a pitcher daily fantasy players can look to attack tonight. Minor’s efficiency has waned down the stretch. He’s likely to clear 200 innings tonight. His total number of innings pitched from 2015 through 2018 is less than 280. He’s allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts and has just a 16.9 K% over the last 30 days with a 5.23 ERA and 5.21 SIERA. Last time out, these A's took him deep three times. It was in Texas and surprisingly only the second time he’s faced them this season (4 runs in six innings in Oakland in April), but this is an offense that has pummeled LHP all season long (113 wRC+, 19.4 K%, 27 Hard-Soft%). There’s a decent chance they get to Minor again here. Matt Chapman (132 wRC+, .312 ISO) and Khris Davis (136 wRC+, .248 ISO) have been potent bats against southpaws and each cost less than $4K on DraftKings. Rostering both would offer high upside on the offensive side with a potential path towards high priced pitching as well. Mark Canha (113 wRC+, .220 ISO) is right at the $4K mark as well. With Minor potentially wearing down due to a heavy workload, Oakland bats may offer some value even in a negative run environment.

Additionally, Mike Fiers has had the beard knocked right off his face over his last three starts (16 runs over 7.2 innings, including eight HRs). This isn’t how regression typically works, but he has a .437 xwOBA over the last month and that’s still 61 points better than his actual results. He lasted eight batters against these Rangers in Texas last time out, but those considering Ranger bats should realize it’s a below average offense and his leash will be very short here with the A’s fighting for a wild card spot.

Mike Minor is another pitcher who started the year surprisingly well but has struggled of late. Minor seemingly broke out to start the year, pitching to a 2.74 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 4.11 xFIP with a 26.1% K rate and 7.8% BB rate despite pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Over the last month, Minor does have a 3.08 ERA, but a 5.23 SIERA, 5.57 xFIP, 48.6% FB rate and 9.5% K-BB suggest he’s been pitching well above his head. The Astros have a league-leading 125 wRC+ at home, as well as a league-leading 136 wRC+ vs. LHP. Jose Altuve (.476 xwOBA vs. LHP), George Springer (.440), Yordan Alvarez (.392), Robinson Chirinos (.380), Alex Bregman (.377), Yuli Gurriel (.329) and Michael Brantley (.307) are all great options in the Houston projected order. Gurriel has been the ‘Stros hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .402 xwOBA, followed by Alex Bregman with a .389 mark. Jose Altuve continues to be underpriced on Draftkings with a price tag of just $4k. Bregman, Brantley and Gurriel can all be had for under $4.3k on DK, while Robinson Chirinos is also a great value at just $3.1k. The Astros don’t project for very high ownership despite how they’ve mashed LHP this year, Minor’s recent struggles, as well as the fact that they are a decently affordable stack. They currently have a 4.85 implied line vs. Minor and the Rangers tonight.

Mike Minor might be pitching the best baseball of his major league career right now. Since his first start, he’s only allowed more than two runs twice (@OAK, @HOU) and is up to a 28.2 K% over the last month. While his contact profile shows only a league average 88 mph aEV, his batted ball profile exhibits elite numbers in his line drive (16.7%), infield fly (17.5%) and Z-Contact (79.3%) rates. So, while a .250 BABIP and 84.7 LOB% have his 2.68 ERA well below his 4.02 SIERA, we have to remember that he’s pitching in a horrendous park half the time and in a difficult division against some strong offenses. His 2.68 DRA reflects this a bit more and his .267 xwOBA over the last month support the results. Tonight, he gets a little bit of a break against a Kansas City offense that has really struggled against LHP this year (73 wRC+). Tonight’s particular lineup has a 25.2 K% vs LHP since the start of last season according to PlateIQ. Minor is within $400 of $9K on either site tonight and is not expected to be very popular (Projected Ownership is available to premium subscribers).

While it’s quite obvious that the Astros are the top offense on tonight’s small slate, it’s probably still pertinent to point out a few reasons why. Mike Minor did hold RHBs to a .307 wOBA last season, but a 40.4 Hard% suggests that number could have easily been more than 30 points higher (.344 xwOBA). Overall, Minor had a board high 10.8% Barrels/BBE last season and has started this season off on the wrong foot with just a 7.9 SwStr% and 46.7 Hard-Soft% in his first start. Texas is easily the highest run scoring environment on the board and the predominantly right-handed lineup of the Astros has started off the season pummeling LHP for a 178 wRC+ so far. George Spring, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel and Tyler White have all exceeded a 140 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year.