Mike Soroka Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mike Soroka has been regressing with a 4.11 ERA over the last in line with his season SIERA, but he’s also been a bit worse. Strikeouts are down (under 20% for the season now), his ground ball rate has been below 48% in seven of his last nine starts (still 52.4% on the year) and he has a .363 xwOBA over the last 30 days (61 points higher than actual results) with 37.9% 95+ mph EV now. He’s allowed five HRs over his last two starts and faces Washington for a second straight outing. The only thing that’s remained consistent is his excellent control (5.6 BB%). For the season, RHBs have been grounded by Soroka (.234 wOBA, .273 xwOBA, 57.1 GB%), but LHBs have had some success (.321 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, 46.9 GB%). The Nationals have a 4.48 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board, but there seems to be some contrarian upside in attacking Soroka with quality LHBs at this point. This makes Adam Eaton (112 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP) a solid value at the top of the lineup and Juan Soto (162 wRC+, 324 ISO) just a great overall choice. Asdrubal Cabrera (96 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Matt Adams (91 wRC+, .250 ISO) would be additional reasonably priced options with decent lineup spots.

Much like Julio Teheran last night, Soroka is in a great spot vs. a terrible Marlins lineup in pitcher’s-haven Marlins Park. Soroka is in the midst of a solid year that has seen him so far post a 2.45 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 4.22 SIERA, 19.8% K rate, 5.9% BB rate, 55% GB rate and 10.4% SwStr. Some regression is likely coming in the ERA department, but an elite .286 xwOBA allowed and 3.9% barrel rate suggest that Soroka’s estimators are not picking up on how well he manages contact. Also like his teammate Teheran, Soroka has a very wide platoon split; since 2018, Soroka has a 4.09 xFIP, 11.2 % K-BB and .319 xwOBA vs. LHB compared to a 3.60 xFIP, 15.3% K-BB and .273 xwOBA vs. RHB. Fortunately for Soroka, the Marlins project to have just one left-handed bat in the order. On the year, the Marlins have a league worst 75 wRC+ and 25.1% K rate vs. RHP, along with an 80 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Also working in Soroka’s favor is a pitcher friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Ted Barrett. Soroka looks to be by far the best pitching option on the early slate and should be well worth his price. The Marlins currently have just a 3.12 implied line.

Through four starts, Mike Soroka has not allowed a HR, but has an amazing 84.2 mph aEV (1.2% Barrels/BBE) to go along with his 26.7 K%. While all of his estimators are well above his 1.14 ERA, his 2.21 DRA is still pretty special, even in a small sample. All of his estimators are below three and a half with SIERA (3.40) being the most bearish on him. Soroka is generating swings and misses in the strike zone (81.3 Z-Contact%) and lots of swings outside of it (27.7 Z-O-Swing%), while also generating a 59% ground ball rate. It’s difficult to find any area in which he is lacking this year. Considering a marginal matchup (Diamondbacks 95 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) in a marginal, climate controlled environment, Soroka may be the top pitcher on the board with Mike Minor and Patrick Corbin having to contend with the mighty Astros and Dodgers respectively. Soroka is at least $500 more than any other pitcher on FanDuel, where those other guys may still have a claim at being equal or better values, but over on DraftKings, not only Minor and Corbin, but also Rich Hill are more expensive.

Mike Soroka makes his third start and while he’s yet to complete six innings, he did throw 109 pitches last time out, alleviating most workload concerns, at least for future starts. He’s struck out 13 of 49 batters with an impressive 27.9 Z-O-Swing% and 55.2 GB% and has not allowed a single barrel yet with just 24.1% of contact above a 95 mph EV. He has a plus matchup with the Padres (78 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% vs RHP), who may have lost Fernando Tatis Jr. yesterday. Without making too much of a two game sample, Soroka’s been an average pitcher (13.6 K-BB%) seven career starts now and should only get better. Fangraphs rates him as the #36 prospect in all of baseball with a 55 Future Value grade. Without workload limitations, he could be a bargain in this favorable matchup, especially at his DraftKings price ($8.6K). He’s the third most expensive pitcher on the board on FanDuel ($9.2K).